XAU/USD Outlook: Will Gold Open with a Bullish Gap?
Date Range: 26th – 30th May 2025
Timeframe: H4 (4-hour chart)
Market Bias: Short-term bullish
🔍 Fundamental Analysis
US–China Trade Tensions:
China halting imports of US goods puts pressure on the dollar (gold tends to move inversely).
Escalating tensions support gold as a safe-haven asset.
Tariff Threats to the EU:
Trump proposes 50% tariffs on EU products → potential retaliatory measures raise global uncertainty.
Risk-averse sentiment may push capital into gold.
Physical Gold Demand:
High seasonal demand from India and China ahead of festivals.
Inflation fears globally increase gold's appeal.
🌍 Macro Overview
Monetary Policy:
The Fed may face pressure to cut rates if trade tensions weaken the economy → bearish for USD, bullish for gold.
PBOC could devalue the yuan in response to trade friction, boosting gold prices in USD terms.
Market Sentiment:
A potential rise in the VIX (fear index) may drive investors towards safe havens like gold.
Strong demand for physical gold and ETFs, particularly in Asia, continues to support price.
Key Events This Week:
US Core PCE (inflation indicator)
US Consumer Confidence
EU and China responses to recent US trade policy
📊 Technical Analysis (H4)
Trend: Clear ascending channel
Current Price: 3,407.554
Key Resistance Levels:
3,407 – 3,444 (major resistance zone)
3,444.436 = potential all-time high
Support Zones:
3,361.648 (channel midpoint)
3,325.347 (lower channel boundary)
Fair Value Gaps (FVG):
FVG 1: 3,361 – 3,407
FVG 2: 3,325 – 3,340
Price Action Note:
A doji candle near resistance suggests a possible short-term pullback before continuation
🔄 Possible Scenarios
🔼 Bullish Scenario (60% probability):
Break above 3,444 with momentum could trigger a bullish gap and extend toward 3,500
Strong fundamental and technical support for upside
🔽 Bearish Scenario:
Rejection from 3,444 may lead to a pullback toward 3,361 or even 3,325 for buy setups
💡 Trade Plan
✅ Long Setup:
Entry: 3,361 – 3,370 (pullback into FVG or mid-channel support)
Take Profit: 3,444 (TP1), 3,500 (TP2)
Stop Loss: Below 3,325
❌ Short Setup (only on confirmed rejection):
Entry: On clear rejection at 3,444 (e.g. bearish engulfing or head & shoulders pattern)
Take Profit: 3,361
Stop Loss: Above 3,444
⏰ Optimal Trading Times
Monitor market open (Sunday, 26th May) for confirmation of a potential bullish gap
Best liquidity during London and New York sessions
📝 Summary:
Gold is well-positioned for a bullish move amid escalating trade tensions and USD weakness.
Watch closely for a breakout above 3,444 or a retracement to 3,361 as a strategic buy zone.
Stay updated on US inflation data and trade policy developments to adjust accordingly.
Date Range: 26th – 30th May 2025
Timeframe: H4 (4-hour chart)
Market Bias: Short-term bullish
🔍 Fundamental Analysis
US–China Trade Tensions:
China halting imports of US goods puts pressure on the dollar (gold tends to move inversely).
Escalating tensions support gold as a safe-haven asset.
Tariff Threats to the EU:
Trump proposes 50% tariffs on EU products → potential retaliatory measures raise global uncertainty.
Risk-averse sentiment may push capital into gold.
Physical Gold Demand:
High seasonal demand from India and China ahead of festivals.
Inflation fears globally increase gold's appeal.
🌍 Macro Overview
Monetary Policy:
The Fed may face pressure to cut rates if trade tensions weaken the economy → bearish for USD, bullish for gold.
PBOC could devalue the yuan in response to trade friction, boosting gold prices in USD terms.
Market Sentiment:
A potential rise in the VIX (fear index) may drive investors towards safe havens like gold.
Strong demand for physical gold and ETFs, particularly in Asia, continues to support price.
Key Events This Week:
US Core PCE (inflation indicator)
US Consumer Confidence
EU and China responses to recent US trade policy
📊 Technical Analysis (H4)
Trend: Clear ascending channel
Current Price: 3,407.554
Key Resistance Levels:
3,407 – 3,444 (major resistance zone)
3,444.436 = potential all-time high
Support Zones:
3,361.648 (channel midpoint)
3,325.347 (lower channel boundary)
Fair Value Gaps (FVG):
FVG 1: 3,361 – 3,407
FVG 2: 3,325 – 3,340
Price Action Note:
A doji candle near resistance suggests a possible short-term pullback before continuation
🔄 Possible Scenarios
🔼 Bullish Scenario (60% probability):
Break above 3,444 with momentum could trigger a bullish gap and extend toward 3,500
Strong fundamental and technical support for upside
🔽 Bearish Scenario:
Rejection from 3,444 may lead to a pullback toward 3,361 or even 3,325 for buy setups
💡 Trade Plan
✅ Long Setup:
Entry: 3,361 – 3,370 (pullback into FVG or mid-channel support)
Take Profit: 3,444 (TP1), 3,500 (TP2)
Stop Loss: Below 3,325
❌ Short Setup (only on confirmed rejection):
Entry: On clear rejection at 3,444 (e.g. bearish engulfing or head & shoulders pattern)
Take Profit: 3,361
Stop Loss: Above 3,444
⏰ Optimal Trading Times
Monitor market open (Sunday, 26th May) for confirmation of a potential bullish gap
Best liquidity during London and New York sessions
📝 Summary:
Gold is well-positioned for a bullish move amid escalating trade tensions and USD weakness.
Watch closely for a breakout above 3,444 or a retracement to 3,361 as a strategic buy zone.
Stay updated on US inflation data and trade policy developments to adjust accordingly.
⚜️ Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action 📉📈
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
⚜️ Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action 📉📈
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.