This continues directly from post #12. Considering what is happening in S&P 500 as well as silver, this should be the favorite right now with 46xx ceiling in April of 2026. Second place is 2960-3160 floor with 5000+ ceiling. I just do not see how we move "massively up" without some kind of wipe out in this window. As usual, I will add as we go. But be aware that I am very short on time and just because I see something does not mean I have time to write about it. SO USE THIS POST WITH CAUTION.
To sum it up, moving to 3500 this way puts a top in. There are fluctuating odds for a 3550 high which very well may happen in the following 3 days. Whatever the case maybe, it is my view that 3165 will become RESISTANCE by mid-May prior to sharp leg down to 2565 in June and maybe a second time in July. The red line breaking is signal for entry for 4600.
To sum it up, moving to 3500 this way puts a top in. There are fluctuating odds for a 3550 high which very well may happen in the following 3 days. Whatever the case maybe, it is my view that 3165 will become RESISTANCE by mid-May prior to sharp leg down to 2565 in June and maybe a second time in July. The red line breaking is signal for entry for 4600.
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04/22/25, 1:30 PM ET, 3400.XX after 3376 low BUT AFTER 3500 HIGH:1) so odds really favor "top in" but ....'
2) simultaneously favor one, or even two more tops to unwind the daily/weekly trends
3) after that gets un-winded, the first target should really be 3075
4) I have a lot I want to add about SPX, silver, etc....
5) but I do not have any time, so take it or leave it
6) have a good one
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4:19 PM ET, there are 2 routes down ....7) it's not obvious which one will play...
8) so... here are the differences
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9) so... I don't see how bears can take out 331510) this almost guarantees one more HIGHER high...
11) in any case, we need 3 highs that will stretch into first week of May
12) which PUSHES THE 2565 CHECK INTO MID JUNE
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13) TYPO.. MID JULY... 14) so this likely means 3585-3607 IS STILL IN PLAY
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5:58 PM ET, NOPE... I just proved the retrace is very unlikely to be more than 300 1) so what do we have now?
2) we have nothing ... NOTHING!
3) this is what is knowable:
a) first, this "top" is not obvious yet until it has 3 OR 4 tops
b) its ceiling is 3585-3607 AND IT DOES NOT HAVE TO HIT IT
c) so that helps none
d) and once top is "recognized"
e) a complete retrace would be 275, 280 draw down
f) anything higher is not likely
g) this means that price is aiming 5000-5500 for February high
h) so this post is dead immediately
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Ordinary-Human, we just gaped down to 3315 and it's not going anywhere bc: Note
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4/22, 8:21 PM ET, if we play fair with the patterns...a) it's 3340.59 as I type
b) this "900 point retrace" is alive
c) but it needs price to 3265 by NY tomorrow
d) to keep the odds realistic
e) I do not think 3295 is enough
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1) in chart above, ignore everything except black route2) we are in a very particular setup that does NOT ADD UP
3) so we can only go one step at a time
4) right now the door is open for 3265
5) this is extremely important bc it will keep all bear routes live
6) miss this window and the hard floor rises from to 2585 to...
7) everything under 3165 as very very unlikely
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8) but if bears make it to 3265 soon9) they can hit 3165 by Thurs in London
10) which keeps all options for bears alive
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4:48 PM, 4/23 current look:Note
10:37 PM ... CANNOT EXPLAIN SILVER RIGHT NOW 1) so I don't have a valid view
2) the end
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1) so it's 10:08 AM ET 4/242) bears have missed the first window for 3165
3) bears have missed second window for 3205
4) and price is barely leaning red outcomes
5) black is current extrapolation
6) while I have doubts rising in silver and sp500
7) to keep odds favoring bear outcome to 2565
8) we need to see 3205
9) we need to see statistically respectable ...
10) route to 3165 and 3075
11) other wise something else is going to happen
12) and honestly I can't add it all up
Note
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13) in chart above, that's not the same as saying...14) I forecast silver to 26
15) because while gold dropped 7%
16) silver actually bounced up at the end
17) this is why I don't have a valid view
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10:15 PM SUN, 04/27/25 I HAVE A VALID VIEW1) but let's see 3205, 3165, and 3075 first
2) the speed to these targets determine the violence ....
3) from here to late June or early July
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4) the critical part is through first 3 weeks of May5) the live target is actually 2450...
6) but that seems so crazy to me
7) but that's what a liquidity crisis would produce
8) a rush for dollars
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9) for those that think gold can't move like that10) go look at January 1980
11) when gold hit its high and dropped 30% in a week
12) I am not saying gold will be at 2450 by May 21st
13) I am saying that is my max pain for liquidity crisis scenario
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10:19 AM , 4/28 short term chart says retest of 3500 first...1) this will kill the clock and set hard floor for May at 3225
2) probably enough to eliminate all medium term bear scenarios under 3165 as well
3) this is the end for this post
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11:19 PM, 3309.XX its not over until it's over...a) I don't know how to call this part
b) so I will just say what I was seeing
c) I saw a setup for 3517-3525 this morning
d) that was playing out until the last 3 hours or so
e) bulls are surrendering their breakout posture
f) so it looks like 3205 is still on the table this week
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g) I am not saying it's favoredh) I am saying bear case has not been eliminated
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4/30, 4:06 PM, NY CLOSE 3296 AND NOW ....1) FAVORED FOR 3205-3165 move once again
2) and 900 drop to late June or very early July
3) is still very much alive
Note
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1) in chart above, the way this moved down..2) has opened up several bullish setups that
3) were not previously obvious
4) it's hard to say that those bull routes
5) are not favorites unless we start with a direct move
6) to 3120
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7) 11:15 PM right after 3230...8) the window for 3130 or 100 down is effing wide open
9) but only for about 12-15 hours
10) and bears have to press their advantage here
11) miss this window and it will get VERY annoying....
12) it becomes really complicated
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13) price action is only interesting IF THERE IS ACTION14) I really don't want to get into 3 months of sideways
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15) and remember that (while you Google India Pakistan news...)
16) Friday is NFP and Wed is FOMC
17) with whispers of a FED CUT
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6.45 PM FRIDAY 05.02, I think we have to go back to 3410‐3440.1) it is hard to see this move meaningfully lower
2) so the next week should be a move for 34xx
3) it should be sideways to FOMC 3200-3220 again
4) then all at once post FOMC WED and THUR
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12:00 AM, TUES, 05/06 AFTER 3386.XX and trading at 3360.xx1) first, the short term ceiling has dropped to 3404.xx
2) but we are at a VERY CRITICAL AREA OF TIME-PRICE
3) where despite silvers continuing weakness...
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7:30 AM and 3380s again...4) didn't get a chance to finish my thoughts
5) but doing this part time is not worth doing
6) so until our paths meet again, have a good life
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1:35 PM ET, 05/06, FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH W/ PRICE AT 3415.xx1) so price hit that 3410-3440 zone I quoted over the weekend
2) but the speed of which it made it here means price needs a higher high
3) minimum 3645 off the top of my head, extensions to 3770 and of course, original target 3850
4) all of this before 5/27
5) not at all obvious to me what happens after that
6) becareful out there and have a good week
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7) by the way if I had to choose price/time target, it would be 3760 ON OR BEFORE 5/24 (not 5/14, corrected typo)8) and this has to be some kind of a top, but intermediate floor would rise to 3300-ish
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5/6, ,3:06 PM, NO.. .THAT'S NOT TRUE...1) because this setup is riding on a strong reaction to FOMC tomorrow
2) while that is one of the possible scenarios, it is not obvious that it's the favorite
3) nothing can evaluated until after FOMC
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4) I just cannot do this on so little time5) so the coming 8 hours is pretty critical bc this move is still live:
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4:40 PM, there's just not enough time to do this right. Good bye. Note
5:41 PM, It's setting up for 6000-7000 by March 2026. 1) so before Tokyo closes tonight, if 3400s hold...
2) that will kill the outcome above for move to 3000 floor
3) that means in May we move for 3755-3850 ish
4) that means 6000-7000 will come in spring of 2026
5) HOWEVER
6) the question is what will the correction be after 3800s?
7) I just don't have enough time
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8) in chart above, this is what is being decided from here to FOMC9) bears are not dead, they can still drop this bounce 100 points ahead of Fed meeting 20 hours from now
10) but even at 3333 tomorrow IF IT HITS...
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Closing this adventure in style: 
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1) chart above is link to my last post2) enjoy!
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