New all-time record for the GOLD
Gold has broken through $3300 per ounce, with a market capitalization now of $22,000 billion, i.e. above China's GDP ($18,000 billion) and close to that of the USA ($27,700 billion). It is now the best-performing major asset since the start of the year among all asset classes, with an increase of over 20%. This massive uptrend was triggered by a technical signal given in February 2024, when the former all-time high of $2075 was surpassed.
But today, a real question needs to be asked: should we take profits? The most ambitious technical targets have almost all been reached, and gold has not paused on the stock market since autumn 2024.
Gold has been supported since 2022 by a combination of fundamental factors
- Global geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, which has activated the safe-haven aspect of gold to the detriment of risky stock market assets such as equities
- Demand for gold from Central Banks, which has been a constant support in recent years
- The fall in the value of the US dollar on the foreign exchange market (see Swissquote's analysis of the US dollar, which is linked to this GOLD update)
- Lower interest rates at major central banks
- Solid upward momentum in physical gold demand in India and China
- Strong financial demand for gold, with substantial inflows into Gold ETFs in the USA, Asia and Europe
On the technical front, monthly momentum indicators are showing extreme overbought conditions, which may seem excessive, but no bearish divergence has yet appeared.
We must therefore remain attentive, but not yet jump to conclusions about the end of the bullish cycle. At the current price, GOLD is clearly in a phase of high bullish maturity, and closer to the end of the bull cycle than the beginning.
An analysis of the history of the gold price on the stock market shows that it alternates between 10-year bullish cycles and pauses lasting several years. There's no point in anticipating the end of the current bullish cycle; we need to wait for a clear technical signal to take profit.
In other words: no sell signal yet, but technical vigilance required at these levels.
There's also the question of Bitcoin, an asset often perceived as "digital gold". Against this backdrop of inflation and monetary uncertainty, arbitrage between BTC and GOLD remains a major factor to consider. Movements in cryptos can reinforce (or weaken) the attractiveness of gold, depending on the positioning of institutional portfolios. It's not a simple opposition, but a balancing act that can influence GOLD's medium-term trend.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
Gold has broken through $3300 per ounce, with a market capitalization now of $22,000 billion, i.e. above China's GDP ($18,000 billion) and close to that of the USA ($27,700 billion). It is now the best-performing major asset since the start of the year among all asset classes, with an increase of over 20%. This massive uptrend was triggered by a technical signal given in February 2024, when the former all-time high of $2075 was surpassed.
But today, a real question needs to be asked: should we take profits? The most ambitious technical targets have almost all been reached, and gold has not paused on the stock market since autumn 2024.
Gold has been supported since 2022 by a combination of fundamental factors
- Global geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, which has activated the safe-haven aspect of gold to the detriment of risky stock market assets such as equities
- Demand for gold from Central Banks, which has been a constant support in recent years
- The fall in the value of the US dollar on the foreign exchange market (see Swissquote's analysis of the US dollar, which is linked to this GOLD update)
- Lower interest rates at major central banks
- Solid upward momentum in physical gold demand in India and China
- Strong financial demand for gold, with substantial inflows into Gold ETFs in the USA, Asia and Europe
On the technical front, monthly momentum indicators are showing extreme overbought conditions, which may seem excessive, but no bearish divergence has yet appeared.
We must therefore remain attentive, but not yet jump to conclusions about the end of the bullish cycle. At the current price, GOLD is clearly in a phase of high bullish maturity, and closer to the end of the bull cycle than the beginning.
An analysis of the history of the gold price on the stock market shows that it alternates between 10-year bullish cycles and pauses lasting several years. There's no point in anticipating the end of the current bullish cycle; we need to wait for a clear technical signal to take profit.
In other words: no sell signal yet, but technical vigilance required at these levels.
There's also the question of Bitcoin, an asset often perceived as "digital gold". Against this backdrop of inflation and monetary uncertainty, arbitrage between BTC and GOLD remains a major factor to consider. Movements in cryptos can reinforce (or weaken) the attractiveness of gold, depending on the positioning of institutional portfolios. It's not a simple opposition, but a balancing act that can influence GOLD's medium-term trend.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.