Daily analysis
Gold rebounded on Monday after falling for six consecutive days, as the US dollar fell significantly and the uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine conflict increased, which re-triggered risk-averse demand. The gold price returned to above $2,600, breaking from the two-month low of 2536.7 reached last Thursday. After rising 1.6% last week, the dollar index fell 0.4% on Monday. Although recent data shows that the progress of the inflation return to the 2% target has stagnated, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for the third time in December. At least seven Federal Reserve officials will deliver speeches this week. In addition, Reuters quoted sources on Sunday as saying that Biden had agreed to allow Ukraine to use an army tactical missile system provided by the United States with a range of more than 300 kilometers to deeply attack military targets in Russia, and Ukraine plans to launch the first long-range attack on Russia in the next few days after the ban was lifted. At the same time, Russia vowed that it would make an “appropriate” response if Ukraine used U.S. long-range missiles to attack Russian territory. Relevant news has promoted the risk-averse demand for gold to a certain extent.
On Tuesday, the start of housing will usher in the U.S. data schedule, followed by the number of people claiming unemployment benefits at the beginning of the week on Thursday and the documents on the sale of completed houses on Thursday. PMI data, the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index and the inflation expectation index will be released on Friday.
As shown in the technical chart, from the high of 2790 on October 31 to the present, the cumulative decline of gold prices has exceeded $250 in just half a month. So far, the key turning point will be the 100-day average and the 2,500 level. The 100-day average line has been an important reference indicator of the trend of gold prices in recent years. In November last year and February this year, the gold price also found important support in this indicator, so the 100 antenna, which is currently at $2,550, is also particularly important. As for the half-hundred-hundred checkmark of 2500, its iconic psychological check-block naturally attracted attention. It seems that it has gained initial support near this area in the past few days, so that the RSI and random indexes have also rebounded from the serious oversold area with the rebound of prices on Monday. The current resistance level will look back at $2,620. If calculated by the cumulative decline in the month, the rebound of 38.2% and 50% will reach $2,632 and $2,662, and the expansion to 61.8% will be $2,692. The key in the medium term is still the 2,800 threshold that failed to break through last month. The closer support is estimated at $2,590.
On Tuesday, the start of housing will usher in the U.S. data schedule, followed by the number of people claiming unemployment benefits at the beginning of the week on Thursday and the documents on the sale of completed houses on Thursday. PMI data, the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index and the inflation expectation index will be released on Friday.
As shown in the technical chart, from the high of 2790 on October 31 to the present, the cumulative decline of gold prices has exceeded $250 in just half a month. So far, the key turning point will be the 100-day average and the 2,500 level. The 100-day average line has been an important reference indicator of the trend of gold prices in recent years. In November last year and February this year, the gold price also found important support in this indicator, so the 100 antenna, which is currently at $2,550, is also particularly important. As for the half-hundred-hundred checkmark of 2500, its iconic psychological check-block naturally attracted attention. It seems that it has gained initial support near this area in the past few days, so that the RSI and random indexes have also rebounded from the serious oversold area with the rebound of prices on Monday. The current resistance level will look back at $2,620. If calculated by the cumulative decline in the month, the rebound of 38.2% and 50% will reach $2,632 and $2,662, and the expansion to 61.8% will be $2,692. The key in the medium term is still the 2,800 threshold that failed to break through last month. The closer support is estimated at $2,590.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.