Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Short
Updated

Analysis of gold market trend next week:



After this week's low-test and rebound trend, will gold continue to rise this week, or will it start a second decline? It is estimated that many investors tend to favor an upward trend. It is estimated that many investors are leaning towards an upward trend. After all, the rebound shown by bulls this week is very strong. Coupled with the weekly positive pattern and the temporary stabilization of 2596, it is natural to be bullish. However, I We need to be cautious when we think we are bullish, because the performance of bulls this week is still flawed, mainly in two aspects: First, the bullish rebound failed to test the strong pressure of 2680, and failed to maintain the increase of 2650, which is in line with the gradual downward trend of gold prices since the fall of 2726; second, although the daily line recorded a small negative line with a shadow line , but the closing below 2665 not only reflects the intensity of the suppression, but also maintains the short pattern in the technical form. Therefore, I think the short-term rise is only an adjustment, and the direction should still be judged as short-selling control.

From a technical perspective, the weekly line closed positively for several consecutive days. This week, a small positive line with upper and lower shadows was closed, which basically completed the trend of swallowing negative lines. At the same time, it also drove the short-term moving average to extend upward to form support. In addition, the Bollinger Bands are moving upward as a whole, so it should be conducive to the development of bulls. However, the indicators of each cycle maintain a short-term arrangement, and the MACD indicator double lines show a dead cross downward pattern, with signs of continued downward volume. On the daily line, as gold prices surged higher and fell back on Friday, the current price effectively runs above the short-term moving average and the Bollinger Middle Rail, forming short-term support at 2630 and 2618 respectively. In conjunction with the bullish arrangement of other cyclical indicators, the MACD double line golden cross shape, It should help bulls continue their trend. However, it is worth noting that the current Bollinger Bands are generally downward, so the overall daily line needs to be cautiously bullish.


In terms of 4 hours, this week's rise in gold prices is due to continuous small positives, indicating that the momentum of the bulls is not as strong as imagined. This can be seen from the fact that the current price has returned to running below the short-term moving average again, and due to the stagnation of prices, The short-term moving average is at 2650 Double resistance in the opposite direction is formed, and other cycle indicators turn to the short position. The Bollinger Bands are moving downward as a whole. In addition, the MACD double-line bonding shows signs of death cross again. Therefore, at the 4-hour level, the overall short position can be expected to break through 2630 at any time and increase the downward strength action.

Gold operation strategy:
1. Go long near gold 2633-2635, stop loss 2629, target 2665-2673 line;
Trade active
The following is a summary of key technical bits:

Current high resistance: 2665.34/ounce
Short-term support: 2621.78/ounce (Thursday low)
Mid-term support: 2621.12/ounce (100-day moving average)
Downside target 1: $2595.80 per ounce (low on December 30)
Downside target 2: $2583.49 per ounce (low on December 19)
Trade closed: target reached
Fed Barkin said in a speech that his base case for 2025 is positive: "I expect there will be more upside than downside to economic growth." He added that expectations for economic expansion may be the reason for a recent rebound in business optimism. reason. Part of his optimism about the economic outlook is that he believes rising consumer spending is likely to keep the economy healthy in the coming months. "With business optimism high and the labor supply unlikely to continue to grow so strongly, the current labor market balance is more likely to move in the direction of hiring rather than layoffs," Barkin said. He also predicted that the more cost-conscious consumers that have emerged in recent months will put pressure on businesses to limit price increases, which should continue to keep inflation down. But he also pointed out that inflation has not returned to the Fed's 2% target: "We have more work to do, but we don't think we need to take the same restrictive measures as before to get the job done."

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