Gold - Are we there?
Updated
The answer for the title question is no. The decline is not over yet.
Gold is in a bull market : the intermediate cycle lows are printing higher lows and the IC tops are showing higher highs. Right now I'm shorting the last part of this year's intermediate cycle's end . This intermediate cycle started in 2020 March.
Gold's intermediate cycles usually last for 140-190 bars. In an intermediate cycle you can find 2-3 daily cycles .
The last intermediate cycle was only 91 bars long because it wasn't a normal cycle , the stock market crash caused a severe liquidation in the PM sector too.
If you take a look at the title picture you can see that both the 2019 April and 2019 November IC ended up with a long consolidation. We got the oversold zigzag on the 6 day RSI but there was no panic selling. The cycle started when price broke out of the consolidation.
The last few days' drop in gold is clearly different from these previous intermediate declines.
This time drop will be steep and the reversal from the bottom should be V-shaped.
I would like to see the oversold zigzag on the 6 day RSI and the intermediate cycle should last for 160-170 bars . SO the bottom will arrive between Middle of October and first week of November.
Right now we are just bouncing from the 100 SMA on the daily chart.
I don't see any important level until 1750... It seems we are building a bear flag.
The length of the flag is important. If we spend days (1-2 weeks ) of back testing the breakdown then the final ICL will be at around 1750 the top of the multi week consolidation box.
If the flag breaks down in 2-3 days then the final low will be at around 1700 as we have many many days to break the 1800-1820 level.
The EURUSD chart will back test the break down during this time:
XAUXAG almost tagged the 200 SMA:
From this point silver will not drop so intensively as in the last few days. My suggestion is to convert the XAGUSD shorts into XAUUSD short.
My final target is 1740-50 or 1680-1700 by the end of October.
**********************************
For the new followers a few important info about me... I'm a cycle trader and usually holding a position for weeks maybe for 2-3 months. If you are day trading most probably I'm not the analyst you want to follow. I'm watching the hourly and 4hrs chart for the perfect entries but the position I open based on the smaller time frames I hold for days and weeks. When I close a long trade it doesn't mean you should go short because most of the time I close earlier the longs than the exact top.
... and vice versa when I close a short trade it doesn't mean you should go long because usually I exit earlier and the market drops further.
Never go all in on my calls . Always use money management.
***********************************
Gold is in a bull market : the intermediate cycle lows are printing higher lows and the IC tops are showing higher highs. Right now I'm shorting the last part of this year's intermediate cycle's end . This intermediate cycle started in 2020 March.
Gold's intermediate cycles usually last for 140-190 bars. In an intermediate cycle you can find 2-3 daily cycles .
The last intermediate cycle was only 91 bars long because it wasn't a normal cycle , the stock market crash caused a severe liquidation in the PM sector too.
If you take a look at the title picture you can see that both the 2019 April and 2019 November IC ended up with a long consolidation. We got the oversold zigzag on the 6 day RSI but there was no panic selling. The cycle started when price broke out of the consolidation.
The last few days' drop in gold is clearly different from these previous intermediate declines.
This time drop will be steep and the reversal from the bottom should be V-shaped.
I would like to see the oversold zigzag on the 6 day RSI and the intermediate cycle should last for 160-170 bars . SO the bottom will arrive between Middle of October and first week of November.
Right now we are just bouncing from the 100 SMA on the daily chart.
I don't see any important level until 1750... It seems we are building a bear flag.
The length of the flag is important. If we spend days (1-2 weeks ) of back testing the breakdown then the final ICL will be at around 1750 the top of the multi week consolidation box.
If the flag breaks down in 2-3 days then the final low will be at around 1700 as we have many many days to break the 1800-1820 level.
The EURUSD chart will back test the break down during this time:
XAUXAG almost tagged the 200 SMA:
From this point silver will not drop so intensively as in the last few days. My suggestion is to convert the XAGUSD shorts into XAUUSD short.
My final target is 1740-50 or 1680-1700 by the end of October.
**********************************
For the new followers a few important info about me... I'm a cycle trader and usually holding a position for weeks maybe for 2-3 months. If you are day trading most probably I'm not the analyst you want to follow. I'm watching the hourly and 4hrs chart for the perfect entries but the position I open based on the smaller time frames I hold for days and weeks. When I close a long trade it doesn't mean you should go short because most of the time I close earlier the longs than the exact top.
... and vice versa when I close a short trade it doesn't mean you should go long because usually I exit earlier and the market drops further.
Never go all in on my calls . Always use money management.
***********************************
Note
The EurUsd backtested the breakdown and it’s rolling over as I’ve mentioned in the idea.Note
What a bulltrap.Finally we can drop now.
Note
Dollar is preparing for a big move to the 200 MA.(light blue)
Note
And the euro is moving down to the 200 MA SOON:
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