Lingrid | GOLD Weekly OUTLOOK. What to Expect This September?
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XAUUSD market spent the entire week in a consolidation zone, trading back and forth. The price tested the resistance multiple times, but we did not see any higher highs or higher closes. Looking at the weekly chart, we can observe that the price action has created two doji candles in a row, suggesting that a breakout—either above or below last week's range—is imminent. I believe the market may be overextended based solely on price action, not considering fundamental factors. Since March, we have seen only bullish months, with June being neutral. Additionally, the price has formed a significant divergence on the weekly timeframe signaling the pullback.
If we examine September trends over the past five years, we notice that this month has typically been bearish, despite the overall bullish trend. Given this historical context, I suspect we could see a deeper pullback toward the 50% retracement level of the previous month's range. However, it's important to note that this pullback may not happen immediately, so caution is advised in chasing the market, especially after two neutral weekly candlesticks.
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The market is continuing to move sideways, and I believe it will maintain this range, especially since there are no high-impact news events scheduled for today. However, I anticipate that we may see some increased volatility in the second half of this trading week. Currently, the price is fluctuating around the key level of 2500. The market has broken the previous week's low, and if it closes below this level today, there is a strong chance that the price will continue to move lower, potentially reaching the support level at 2470. It will be important to monitor how the market reacts around these levels, as a confirmed close below 2500 could indicate further bearish momentum. My target is a support level at 2468
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The market's consolidation around the round number at 2500 indicates indecision among traders. The formation of a box pattern at this level suggests that buyers and sellers are battling for control. Additionally, the break and close below the trendline is a bearish sign, reinforcing the possibility of further downside movement. With the price action testing the previous day's low, it appears the market is preparing to move lower. The price broke through triangle that could indicate that bearish momentum is increasing. If the price breaks down from the box, it is likely to open the door for a move towards lower levels, potentially targeting the 2460 area. My target on the 1H chart is a support level at 2479
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