This took a lot of headache to figure out, but I finally did it. And here's what I see:
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1) we top this October, gold at 6200
2) silver, I could care less until it surpasses gold meaningfully
3) and I still don't see it this year
4) silver's 45-year line is UNDER $51, I do not see this breaking
5) despite gold moving agressively to 6200
6) that is what the math says convincingly
7) this is not the the top for metals
8) but because of the 6X move since beginning of 2016 circa 1000
9) there's going to be a hard retrace that could take a year
10) I don't see silver making waves until well into 2027
11) in chart above, the setup for 6200 requires gold to hit 3850
12) this by first week of July
13) tomorrow is FOMC, we should be above 3500 the day after that
14) obviously this is giant move in a very tight window
15) we will see what I can for semi continuous coverage
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1) we top this October, gold at 6200
2) silver, I could care less until it surpasses gold meaningfully
3) and I still don't see it this year
4) silver's 45-year line is UNDER $51, I do not see this breaking
5) despite gold moving agressively to 6200
6) that is what the math says convincingly
7) this is not the the top for metals
8) but because of the 6X move since beginning of 2016 circa 1000
9) there's going to be a hard retrace that could take a year
10) I don't see silver making waves until well into 2027
11) in chart above, the setup for 6200 requires gold to hit 3850
12) this by first week of July
13) tomorrow is FOMC, we should be above 3500 the day after that
14) obviously this is giant move in a very tight window
15) we will see what I can for semi continuous coverage
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06/18/25, 12.5 hours ahead of FOMC, 12:28 AM ET, New York time and I posted this chart in last post: a) in chart above, I use arcs and curves to illustrate what trend maps are saying
b) that is to say there has to be a mountain of technical evidence behind this type of analysiis
c) with that said, a picture is worth a thousand words, for example:
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d) in the most basic read of chart abovee) this rally, from end of 2015 or beginning of 2016 when price was about $1050
f) is comparable about 2.91 time frame wise vs 1976 through 1980 time frame when price ...
g) went 100 to 875 or 8.75x
h) so if we DISREGARD THE PATTERN DIFFERENCE, when price goes vertical ...
i) which it is about to do in the 125 days ahead
j) and runs into the the arc curving backwards, that's the top
k) in other words 6200 about October 17-21 this year
l) where the difference in pattern matter is that this time is NOT THE TOP
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m) and why? n) because the right side of chart above is deceiving...
o) meaning it doesn't need that curve for 6200
p) WE ONLY NEED THIS ONE:
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q) in chart above, that's the black curve and here is zoomed in: Note
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9:01 AM, looks like more stalling today.1) don't know if it will move yet
2) not saying it can't
3) but first impression says more stalling
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4) 9:09 AM, it keeps saying almost ready Note
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10:00 AM ET, chart above is full count since 16101) with two more counts remaining
2) meaning approximately 12500 and 25000
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3) but this would take several more yearsNote
4) but it all makes sense like this:Note
5) in chart above, where 6200 is blue 3 6) hence the explanation why silver hasn't moved
7) despite that 700 target I wrote about ago
8) because it's still early
9) even gold at 6200, would likely correct 5200, 4800 maybe even lower
10) it's at this correction after 6200, which would take place by this December if early...
11) and by next August if late...
12) that we confirm the point I made a while ago
13) that silver weakness WEAKENS vs gold weakness
14) that is to say we would see silver CORRECT LESS IN % TERMS THAN GOLD
15) then the silver market boom would finally start
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16) in chart above that would mean that the FOMC meeting today will disappoint17) so what can cause the reverse up?
18) REAL WAR, maybe the U.S. gets in
19) maybe something else
20) in any case, 3650 for JUNE 24TH stays as the target
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.