GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Oct 07 - Oct 11]

In the beginning of last week, XAUUSD increased from 2,624 USD/oz to 2,672 USD/oz due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Immediately afterwards, international gold prices dropped to close to 2,631 USD/oz after US non-agricultural employment figures for September were announced at 254,000 jobs, much higher than the forecast of 147,000 jobs. The unemployment rate also decreased to 4.1% from 4.2% in August. In addition, wages increased more than expected when they increased by 0.4% last month. This reduces expectations that the FED will continue to cut interest rates by 0.5% next month. However, concerns about the escalating Middle East conflict pushed gold prices up to 2,670 USD/oz, then closed the week at 2,653 USD/oz.

This week, the US will release the minutes of the FED meeting and inflation indicators, such as the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI). Previously, the FED paid more attention to labor market data. Now the escalating geopolitical conflict threatens to push oil prices up even more, putting pressure on inflation, so CPI and PPI will receive special attention from the market. If these two figures increase sharply, the FED may delay, or only cut interest rates by 0.25% next month. This will have a negative impact on gold prices next week, possibly pushing gold prices below the 2,600 USD/oz area.

GOLD decreased slightly after the US employment report

📌Technically, on the H4 chart, the gold price moves sideways and accumulates in a triangle model. If the 2630 support zone is penetrated, the gold price will adjust to below 2600. However, if the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates strongly, it is possible that next week's gold price will break its peak. 2,700 USD/oz.

Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2.600 – 2.625USD
Resistance: 2.700 – 2.676USD

SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2711 - 2709⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2715

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2589 - 2591⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2585

Note

Goldman Sachs also maintains its forecast that the Fed will reduce interest rates gradually, with each reduction of 25bps, to bring interest rates to 3.25-3.5% by June 2025. They emphasized that there is no clear reason for job growth to slow given that employment is high and the US economy is still growing strongly.

Note

Note

Gold prices fell more than 200 pips to below 2,640 USD/oz in the context that bets on the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 bps in November were almost eliminated. The USD consolidated last week's strong gains and put pressure on gold prices as investors are closely monitoring the geopolitical situation.

Note

Gold's "pause" last week was mainly due to the strong increase in the USD, benefiting from safe-haven capital flows after Iran launched more than 180 ballistic missiles toward Israel and the US jobs report exceeded expectations. on Friday, when 254,000 new jobs were created in September. Gold and the USD often have a negative correlation, meaning a stronger USD often puts downward pressure on gold prices and vice versa. However, despite the recent USD rally, gold still maintains its position.

Note

Gold price is still maintaining around 2,640 USD/oz. Expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November seem to have reached 0%, creating a drag on the precious metal's rise. However, geopolitical risks and mild USD weakness will limit the downside for XAU/USD.

Note

On the international market, the gold price today reached 2,609 USD/ounce, down 33 USD. The sudden decline in world gold prices is said to be due to overbought conditions. Although there may be room to increase in the near future, precious metals are "running out of buyers".

Note

Gold dropped to nearly 2,610 USD/oz

Note

The world's yellow metal stagnated after falling for 6 consecutive days, pressured by the recovery of the USD. The DXY index hit its highest level in nearly two months, making bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies. In addition, expectations surrounding an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) at its November meeting also put significant pressure on gold.

Note

Gold prices fluctuated strongly, jerking in both directions during the session due to US job market data and CPI inflation. Gold price is currently "struggling" around 2625 USD/oz on the H4 chart, however this precious metal still maintains an increase of more than 200 pips during the session.

Note

At the end of the trading session on October 10, the spot gold contract increased 0.6% to 2,623.58 USD/oz, ending a series of 6 consecutive losing sessions. Gold futures contracts added 0.5% to 2,639.30 USD/oz.

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