Gold Spot / U.S. DollarUpdated XAU/USD - Weekly Analysis - Jan 13-17, 2025
Overall Trend:
TheXAUUSD pair has been riding a bullish trend over recent months, with gold prices hitting all-time highs in September 2024 near $2,635 per ounce. Currently, the pair remains above the 50- and 200-period moving averages, reinforcing the continuation of the upward trajectory.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Support:
$2,657: Now acting as a key level after previously serving as strong resistance during pullbacks.
$2,621: A previously identified support zone during price corrections.
Resistance:
$2,723: A significant resistance zone, historically alternating as support and resistance since October 2024.
$2,750: Found at the lower boundary of the premium zone but would require a break of the descending trendline and the resistance above.
Technical Patterns and Indicators:
Candlestick Patterns:
Recent bullish candlestick formations like "marubozu" and "bullish engulfing" indicate strong buying pressure.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The daily RSI is hovering near the overbought zone (above 59), signaling potential for pullbacks or consolidation.
SMC (Smart Money Concepts) and Wyckoff:
The current structure aligns with an accumulation phase, suggesting a high probability of a subsequent bullish breakout, consistent with Wyckoff principles.
Key Fundamental Drivers:
US Monetary Policy:
The Federal Reserve's recent half-point rate cut has added upward momentum to gold prices.
Geopolitical Tensions:
Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and other regions are boosting demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Economic Data:
Upcoming US economic reports, including Q4 GDP and the PCE Price Index, could sway market sentiment and drive volatility.
Jan 14 - 1:30 pm GMT 0 - Producer Price Index (PPI):
USPPIMM
Jan 15 - 1:30 pm GTM 0 - Consumer Price Index (CPI):USIRMM USIRYY
Jan 16 - 1:30 pm GMT 0 - Retail SalesUSRSMM and Unemployment Claims $USIJC
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario:
If XAU/USD breaks above the descending trendline at $2,688, the price could target the $2,723 zone and, with enough momentum, push towards $2,750.
Bearish Scenario:
In the event of corrections, the pair may find support at $2,657, or in the case of a deeper pullback, near the base of the expansion channel at approximately $2,621.
Seasonal Considerations:
Historically, the start of the year tends to be favorable for gold due to increased demand for safe-haven assets and portfolio rebalancing by institutional investors.
The
XAUUSD pair has been riding a bullish trend over recent months, with gold prices hitting all-time highs in September 2024 near $2,635 per ounce. Currently, the pair remains above the 50- and 200-period moving averages, reinforcing the continuation of the upward trajectory.Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Support:
$2,657: Now acting as a key level after previously serving as strong resistance during pullbacks.
$2,621: A previously identified support zone during price corrections.
Resistance:
$2,723: A significant resistance zone, historically alternating as support and resistance since October 2024.
$2,750: Found at the lower boundary of the premium zone but would require a break of the descending trendline and the resistance above.
Technical Patterns and Indicators:
Candlestick Patterns:
Recent bullish candlestick formations like "marubozu" and "bullish engulfing" indicate strong buying pressure.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The daily RSI is hovering near the overbought zone (above 59), signaling potential for pullbacks or consolidation.
SMC (Smart Money Concepts) and Wyckoff:
The current structure aligns with an accumulation phase, suggesting a high probability of a subsequent bullish breakout, consistent with Wyckoff principles.
Key Fundamental Drivers:
US Monetary Policy:
The Federal Reserve's recent half-point rate cut has added upward momentum to gold prices.
Geopolitical Tensions:
Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and other regions are boosting demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Economic Data:
Upcoming US economic reports, including Q4 GDP and the PCE Price Index, could sway market sentiment and drive volatility.
Jan 14 - 1:30 pm GMT 0 - Producer Price Index (PPI):
USPPIMM Jan 15 - 1:30 pm GTM 0 - Consumer Price Index (CPI):
USIRMM USIRYY Jan 16 - 1:30 pm GMT 0 - Retail Sales
USRSMM and Unemployment Claims $USIJCPotential Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario:
If XAU/USD breaks above the descending trendline at $2,688, the price could target the $2,723 zone and, with enough momentum, push towards $2,750.
Bearish Scenario:
In the event of corrections, the pair may find support at $2,657, or in the case of a deeper pullback, near the base of the expansion channel at approximately $2,621.
Seasonal Considerations:
Historically, the start of the year tends to be favorable for gold due to increased demand for safe-haven assets and portfolio rebalancing by institutional investors.
Trade active
First bearish target reached: 2657.
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