Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Long
Updated

XAUUSD – GOLD HOLDS ITS BREATH: IS A MAJOR BREAKOUT BREWING

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🌍 MACRO OUTLOOK: GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY PUTS GOLD IN THE SPOTLIGHT
💬 The Federal Reserve has paused rate hikes for now, but Powell’s tone remains firm. His latest remarks point toward persistent inflation risks, fueled by rising energy costs and escalating geopolitical instability...

🔥 Tensions between Iran and Israel continue to escalate. Should the US step in as a peace broker, we could see gold retreat further toward the 3,357–3,345 support area.

👉 On the flip side, if Trump reaffirms his support for Israel or hints at potential military action against Iran, we could see a strong safe-haven reaction, pushing gold back up to the 3,417–3,440 region.

📊 TECHNICAL SNAPSHOT (M30): TIGHT RANGE – VOLATILITY LOADING?
Gold is currently trading inside a short-term descending channel, with price compressed between the EMAs (13–34–89–200).

🔄 An inverse head & shoulders formation appears to be developing at the bottom – a bullish signal if it confirms with a breakout.

⚠️ Key Support Zone: 3,345–3,357
⚠️ Resistance Barrier: 3,417–3,440

🧭 TRADE PLAN
✅ BUY SCENARIO:
Buy Zone: 3,345 – 3,357

Trigger: Wait for bullish rejection with confirmation candle

Stop Loss: Below 3,342
Targets: 3,373 → 3,384 → 3,403 → 3,417 → 3,440

❌ SELL SCENARIO:
Sell Zone: 3,438 – 3,440

Trigger: Look for bearish rejection around resistance

Stop Loss: Above 3,445
Targets: 3,403 → 3,384 → 3,373 → 3,357

📣 FINAL THOUGHTS FOR INDIAN TRADERS
Even though the mid-term trend remains bullish, gold is still in consolidation mode. This is a time to stay calm, wait for clean setups, and only act on clear signals.

💡 Keep a close eye on geopolitical shifts – especially involving Iran, Israel, and the US – as these could be the catalyst for gold’s next major move.

Trade active
✅ BUY SCENARIO: ACTIVE +300PIPS

Buy Zone: 3,345 – 3,357 (3,347)

Trigger: Wait for bullish rejection with confirmation candle

Stop Loss: Below 3,342
Targets: 3,373 → 3,384 → 3,403 → 3,417 → 3,440

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