Hello traders,
[logic analysis]
The seven major U.S. stock markets are no longer in the limelight, and the market is facing a major test
Even after the past week's rally, the Big Seven have had their worst first quarter since 2022!
Over the past two years, seven major tech companies--Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla--have driven a strong rally that pulled stocks out of the 2022 bear market, setting dozens of all-time highs.
Today, even after the past week's rally, the seven major U.S. stocks have had their worst start to a year since 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data. All seven stocks are down more than 6.5%, wiping out a total of $2.5 trillion in market value.[
1. Core earnings focus: Can tech giants continue their growth myth?
Earnings schedule and market expectations
Meta (after the close on April 30)
Microsoft (after the close of trading on May 1)
Apple (after the close on May 2)
Amazon (after the close of trading on May 3)
Risk warning signals
Nvidia showed weakness ahead of time: fell 2.1% on Monday.
Divergence in the Nasdaq: The Dow's fifth straight gain contrasts with a slight drop in the Nasdaq, which could trigger a broader sell-off if it falls below its 15,000 support level after earnings.
II. Interpretation of the latest market data
Changes in liquidity environment
US Treasury yields fell: The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.213% (from 4.267%), a low interest rate environment is positive for tech valuations, but the US Treasury's new $514 billion borrowing program could drain liquidity from the market, so watch for changes in funding.
Dollar index weakens: The Wall Street Journal dollar index fell to 95.78 (from 96.34) and a weaker dollar is usually good for foreign earnings conversion for multinational companies, but if the debt ceiling crisis heats up, the dollar could rebound quickly.
Commodity market feedback
Gold rallied back: Spot gold closed at its third-highest level in history ($3,332.50 an ounce), as risk aversion rose. If earnings fall short of expectations, gold could test the $3,400 mark again.
Crude oil demand concerns: WTI crude fell to $62.05 / barrel, Brent to $65.86. Weak tech stocks could exacerbate the deterioration in economic expectations, further weighing on the outlook for crude oil demand.
3. Analysis of key linkage effects
Negative correlation between tech stocks and gold: If the earnings blow leads to a sharp drop in the Nasdaq, gold's safe-haven nature will be highlighted, and capital may accelerate into the precious metals market.
Crude oil as an economic barometer: Weak tech giant earnings-> Downgraded global economic outlook-> Dismal outlook for crude oil demand, WTI may test psychological support at $60.
[gold]
Weekly circle prompt:
[At the beginning of this week, new warehouses entered to short gold, and need to wait for a new one-hour reversal signal in the European and American sessions before continuing to enter to short gold,
aim to do
TP1：3265
TP2: 3240
TP3：3225
TP4: 3205】
On Monday, during the European session of gold, there was a reversal signal at the support structure position on the 1-hour chart, and the long plan was put on hold.
Daily chart, gold has been trading above the EMA in a volatile market, and the bearish force is not strong enough to reverse the gold rally.
The data on Tuesday was light, so we changed our thinking and continued the upward direction on Monday to go long on gold. Using the FIBO calculation of last week's downtrend, the target for going long on gold is:
TP1： 3380
TP2: 3408
TP3: 3447
GOOD LUCK!
LESS IS MORE!
[logic analysis]
The seven major U.S. stock markets are no longer in the limelight, and the market is facing a major test
Even after the past week's rally, the Big Seven have had their worst first quarter since 2022!
Over the past two years, seven major tech companies--Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla--have driven a strong rally that pulled stocks out of the 2022 bear market, setting dozens of all-time highs.
Today, even after the past week's rally, the seven major U.S. stocks have had their worst start to a year since 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data. All seven stocks are down more than 6.5%, wiping out a total of $2.5 trillion in market value.[
1. Core earnings focus: Can tech giants continue their growth myth?
Earnings schedule and market expectations
Meta (after the close on April 30)
Microsoft (after the close of trading on May 1)
Apple (after the close on May 2)
Amazon (after the close of trading on May 3)
Risk warning signals
Nvidia showed weakness ahead of time: fell 2.1% on Monday.
Divergence in the Nasdaq: The Dow's fifth straight gain contrasts with a slight drop in the Nasdaq, which could trigger a broader sell-off if it falls below its 15,000 support level after earnings.
II. Interpretation of the latest market data
Changes in liquidity environment
US Treasury yields fell: The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.213% (from 4.267%), a low interest rate environment is positive for tech valuations, but the US Treasury's new $514 billion borrowing program could drain liquidity from the market, so watch for changes in funding.
Dollar index weakens: The Wall Street Journal dollar index fell to 95.78 (from 96.34) and a weaker dollar is usually good for foreign earnings conversion for multinational companies, but if the debt ceiling crisis heats up, the dollar could rebound quickly.
Commodity market feedback
Gold rallied back: Spot gold closed at its third-highest level in history ($3,332.50 an ounce), as risk aversion rose. If earnings fall short of expectations, gold could test the $3,400 mark again.
Crude oil demand concerns: WTI crude fell to $62.05 / barrel, Brent to $65.86. Weak tech stocks could exacerbate the deterioration in economic expectations, further weighing on the outlook for crude oil demand.
3. Analysis of key linkage effects
Negative correlation between tech stocks and gold: If the earnings blow leads to a sharp drop in the Nasdaq, gold's safe-haven nature will be highlighted, and capital may accelerate into the precious metals market.
Crude oil as an economic barometer: Weak tech giant earnings-> Downgraded global economic outlook-> Dismal outlook for crude oil demand, WTI may test psychological support at $60.
[gold]
Weekly circle prompt:
[At the beginning of this week, new warehouses entered to short gold, and need to wait for a new one-hour reversal signal in the European and American sessions before continuing to enter to short gold,
aim to do
TP1：3265
TP2: 3240
TP3：3225
TP4: 3205】
On Monday, during the European session of gold, there was a reversal signal at the support structure position on the 1-hour chart, and the long plan was put on hold.
Daily chart, gold has been trading above the EMA in a volatile market, and the bearish force is not strong enough to reverse the gold rally.
The data on Tuesday was light, so we changed our thinking and continued the upward direction on Monday to go long on gold. Using the FIBO calculation of last week's downtrend, the target for going long on gold is:
TP1： 3380
TP2: 3408
TP3: 3447
GOOD LUCK!
LESS IS MORE!
Trade closed: target reached
TP1 AND TP2 HIT
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Join Free Telegram Group to get all the updates: t.me/FuntraderVera
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.