Daily analysis
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday that continued economic growth, a solid job market and an inflation rate that remains above the 2% target mean that the Fed does not need to cut interest rates hastily and can think twice before doing so. Powell said that while Fed staff may begin to assess the possible impact of proposals such as tariffs proposed by Trump during the campaign, that will take time to understand and will not become clear until new laws or executive orders are in place. . Powell said there is still time before policy thinking needs to be adjusted. After Powell's speech, traders reduced their bets on the Federal Reserve's December interest rate cut, with the interest rate futures contract market pricing in a 60% chance of a 25 basis point cut in policy rates next month, down from a previous probability of close to 70%.
Gold has had a sluggish week, falling for five consecutive trading days by Thursday and hitting a two-month low, weighed down by a strong rise in the U.S. dollar. Gold plunged more than $170 after the U.S. Republican Party won a landslide victory in the November 5 election, as President-elect Trump's proposed tariffs were seen as a potential driver of inflation, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to slow its pace of interest rate cuts.
In terms of technical trends, the price of gold clearly fell below the 2700 mark and the upward trend line at the beginning of this week, which is triggering another wave of adjustments. By Thursday, it once fell below the 2540 level, and recovered slightly in late trading, which also drove the RSI. And the stochastic index showed initial signs of recovery from the severely oversold area. The resistance level looks back at $2,580 and $2,620, and the greater resistance is expected to be the 50-day moving average of $2,650 or even $2,675. From the high of 2790 on October 31 to the present, the cumulative decline has exceeded US$250 in just half a month. The key turning point so far will be the 100-day moving average and the 2500 mark. The 100-day moving average has been an important reference indicator for gold price trends in recent years. In November last year and February this year, gold prices also found important support on this indicator, so the 100-day moving average currently located at $2,545 is also particularly important. As for the half-hundred mark of 2500, its iconic psychological mark has naturally attracted attention. If this area cannot hold the decline of gold prices during this wave, it may show that gold prices may reverse not only the short-term but also the medium-term trend; and then extend downward. Support is seen at the September low of 2,471.80 and $2,450.
Gold has had a sluggish week, falling for five consecutive trading days by Thursday and hitting a two-month low, weighed down by a strong rise in the U.S. dollar. Gold plunged more than $170 after the U.S. Republican Party won a landslide victory in the November 5 election, as President-elect Trump's proposed tariffs were seen as a potential driver of inflation, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to slow its pace of interest rate cuts.
In terms of technical trends, the price of gold clearly fell below the 2700 mark and the upward trend line at the beginning of this week, which is triggering another wave of adjustments. By Thursday, it once fell below the 2540 level, and recovered slightly in late trading, which also drove the RSI. And the stochastic index showed initial signs of recovery from the severely oversold area. The resistance level looks back at $2,580 and $2,620, and the greater resistance is expected to be the 50-day moving average of $2,650 or even $2,675. From the high of 2790 on October 31 to the present, the cumulative decline has exceeded US$250 in just half a month. The key turning point so far will be the 100-day moving average and the 2500 mark. The 100-day moving average has been an important reference indicator for gold price trends in recent years. In November last year and February this year, gold prices also found important support on this indicator, so the 100-day moving average currently located at $2,545 is also particularly important. As for the half-hundred mark of 2500, its iconic psychological mark has naturally attracted attention. If this area cannot hold the decline of gold prices during this wave, it may show that gold prices may reverse not only the short-term but also the medium-term trend; and then extend downward. Support is seen at the September low of 2,471.80 and $2,450.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.