Investment Opportunities Amid Geopolitical Risks and Recession Expectations
I. Fundamental Support: Persistent Geopolitical Risks and Escalating Recession Expectations
Middle East Situation: Potential Risks Not Fully Priced
Although Iran's threat to block the Strait of Hormuz has not yet translated into actual action, its strategic value as an "ultimate deterrent" has been partially recognized by the market. Historical data shows that during Iran's two blockade threats in 2011 and 2018, gold rose by an average of 8.7%. However, the current price range of $3,380-$3,400 only reflects the direct impact of the Israeli airstrikes on the 14th, and has not fully incorporated the risk premium for potential retaliatory actions by Iran. Once "quasi-actions" such as tanker seizures or partial strait blockades occur, gold prices may quickly break through $3,450.
Fed Policy: Dual Drivers of Rate Cut Expectations and Economic Weakness
Although the Fed kept rates unchanged at its June meeting, the dot plot showed that 7 out of 19 committee members expected "zero rate cuts" for the whole year, conflicting with the market's 61.7% probability of a rate cut in September. The essence of this divergence is the game between "high tariff inflation pressures" and "economic slowdown"—when the median GDP forecast is revised down from 1.7% to 1.4%, and the Atlanta Fed model predicts that Q1 growth may turn negative, the long-term trend of declining real interest rates remains unchanged, and gold's "recession-resistant" attribute will gradually emerge.
Correlation Effect Between Crude Oil and Gold
Currently, WTI crude oil maintains a 3.7% gain, and Brent crude fluctuates around $76/barrel. Tensions in the energy market provide indirect support for gold. Historical data shows that when crude oil rises by more than 5% in a week, gold has a 72% probability of rising simultaneously, as both share the logic of "geopolitical risk premium". If Iran takes subsequent actions against oil tankers, the two assets may experience a resonant rally.
Today's gold trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you
XAUUSD buy@3365~3375
SL:3350
TP：3385~3395
I. Fundamental Support: Persistent Geopolitical Risks and Escalating Recession Expectations
Middle East Situation: Potential Risks Not Fully Priced
Although Iran's threat to block the Strait of Hormuz has not yet translated into actual action, its strategic value as an "ultimate deterrent" has been partially recognized by the market. Historical data shows that during Iran's two blockade threats in 2011 and 2018, gold rose by an average of 8.7%. However, the current price range of $3,380-$3,400 only reflects the direct impact of the Israeli airstrikes on the 14th, and has not fully incorporated the risk premium for potential retaliatory actions by Iran. Once "quasi-actions" such as tanker seizures or partial strait blockades occur, gold prices may quickly break through $3,450.
Fed Policy: Dual Drivers of Rate Cut Expectations and Economic Weakness
Although the Fed kept rates unchanged at its June meeting, the dot plot showed that 7 out of 19 committee members expected "zero rate cuts" for the whole year, conflicting with the market's 61.7% probability of a rate cut in September. The essence of this divergence is the game between "high tariff inflation pressures" and "economic slowdown"—when the median GDP forecast is revised down from 1.7% to 1.4%, and the Atlanta Fed model predicts that Q1 growth may turn negative, the long-term trend of declining real interest rates remains unchanged, and gold's "recession-resistant" attribute will gradually emerge.
Correlation Effect Between Crude Oil and Gold
Currently, WTI crude oil maintains a 3.7% gain, and Brent crude fluctuates around $76/barrel. Tensions in the energy market provide indirect support for gold. Historical data shows that when crude oil rises by more than 5% in a week, gold has a 72% probability of rising simultaneously, as both share the logic of "geopolitical risk premium". If Iran takes subsequent actions against oil tankers, the two assets may experience a resonant rally.
Today's gold trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you
XAUUSD buy@3365~3375
SL:3350
TP：3385~3395
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：t.me/+TV_kswto0jw3NWU0
The accuracy rate is as high as 82 percent. ✅
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Free signal channel ：t.me/+TV_kswto0jw3NWU0
Let me guide you to start a profitable journey! 🚀
：t.me/+TV_kswto0jw3NWU0
The accuracy rate is as high as 82 percent. ✅
：t.me/+TV_kswto0jw3NWU0
Let me guide you to start a profitable journey! 🚀
：t.me/+TV_kswto0jw3NWU0
The accuracy rate is as high as 82 percent. ✅
：t.me/+TV_kswto0jw3NWU0
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.