Possible 30R Gold Long - Swing trade - Smart Money Concepts/ICT
Updated
1. Price has come back to mitigate the 4H +FVG (Fair Value Gap) created on the 4th April, sweeping a PDL (Previous Day's Low) in the process to clean out the stop losses of anyone in early longs from this past week. This is an early entry signal and I have started to scale in with a scalp. (This higher risk trading, and not financial advice!)
2. Price has also retraced to a W +OB (Order Block)
3. We have SMT divergence with Silver, which has not swept the same low; another bullish signal in SMC (Smart Money Concepts) - although it would be better to have the SMT divergence with the previous structure than the current one as this is still unconfirmed (Silver can still make a lower low!)
ENTRY: ***IF*** price displaces/moves impulsively away now on the 15m timeframe, it can come back to fill the 15m +BPR (Balanced Price Range) left after the sweep of the 4th April lows. a 15m ChoCh (Change of Character) A.K.A. MSS (Market Structure Shift) would be ideal, but the last 15m swing high to be broken is a bit far away so the BPR fill is the alternative. This also lines up with the 4H +FVG which has a 4H +OB/Demand Zone below it.
I have placed my stop loss below the Pennant's rPOC (Range Point Of Control) for a peace of mind instead of the wick of the stop hunt.
I will post a zoomed in chart below.
2. Price has also retraced to a W +OB (Order Block)
3. We have SMT divergence with Silver, which has not swept the same low; another bullish signal in SMC (Smart Money Concepts) - although it would be better to have the SMT divergence with the previous structure than the current one as this is still unconfirmed (Silver can still make a lower low!)
ENTRY: ***IF*** price displaces/moves impulsively away now on the 15m timeframe, it can come back to fill the 15m +BPR (Balanced Price Range) left after the sweep of the 4th April lows. a 15m ChoCh (Change of Character) A.K.A. MSS (Market Structure Shift) would be ideal, but the last 15m swing high to be broken is a bit far away so the BPR fill is the alternative. This also lines up with the 4H +FVG which has a 4H +OB/Demand Zone below it.
I have placed my stop loss below the Pennant's rPOC (Range Point Of Control) for a peace of mind instead of the wick of the stop hunt.
I will post a zoomed in chart below.
Note
Note
No impulsive move yet but something like this would be nice if no MSS:What do you think? Leave your thoughts below.
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Cup & handle on macro timeframes (Log Scale chart target)Note
Wednesday update post move down:What an aggressive move by Gold to the downside with no news catalyst either. My scalp from Monday evening was taken out.
I believe this is a sign that the macro economic driving force that caused the macro Cup & Handle breakout to the upside (risk off/bank collapse) has eased off, and so there is less demand for USD alternatives like Gold and BTC. There was no impulsive move away from the 4h +OB that I said I was looking for, but rather an arcing move up and back down over two days. I still project that the breakout will continue, but with a slightly bigger pullback.
I am a day trader who is developing swing trading continuation strategies. I have now posted two continuation swing trades utilising SMT divergence that have failed.
The unconfirmed SMT divergence with Silver I mentioned in my initial post has failed, as was a possiblity. If you'll notice, Gold did not put in a 4h higher high swing, which I believe would have been the confirmation for SMT divergence with Silver.
Conclusion: SMT divergence HAS TO PLAY OUT ON THE TIMEFRAME IT FORMS ON.
If it's a SMT divergence on the 4h timeframe, Gold then has to break a previous 4h swing high to confirm the divergence or it's meaningless.
Note
Here is the SMT divergence that failed, due to not putting in a 4h higher high:Note
New plan:
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