Gold price 3290 long and short life and death line
1. Gold price plummeted 2%, falling back to the 60-day moving average
Price dynamics: Spot gold plummeted 2% on Tuesday (June 24), hitting a low of $3295.38/ounce, a new low since June 9, and finally closed at $3322.93/ounce.
In the early Asian trading day on Wednesday, the price of gold fluctuated narrowly around $3323.
Key support level: The 60-day moving average support is at $3290. If it falls below, it may fall further to $3250.
2. The main reason for the decline: the ceasefire in the Middle East + the hawkish signal of the Federal Reserve
The situation in the Middle East has eased:
Iran and Israel announced a ceasefire, which weakened the safe-haven demand for gold.
Market sentiment turned to risk appetite, global stock markets rose, and gold was under pressure.
Powell postpones rate cut expectations:
Fed Chairman Powell said that more time is needed to observe the impact of tariffs on inflation, and the possibility of a rate cut in July is reduced. The market expects the first rate cut to be on September 15.
3. Technical analysis
Short-term trend: Gold prices test the 50-day moving average ($3,317) support level.
If it falls below, it may fall to the $3,290-3,250 range.
Currently, gold prices are rising and encountering resistance in the 3330-3340 range.
If it breaks through, gold prices may rise to the $3360-3380 range.
Moving average system:
The 50-day moving average ($3317) and the 60-day moving average ($3290) form a short-term support band.
If the closing price falls below $3290, the daily level "double top" pattern will be confirmed (the neckline is at $3290 and the target is around $3050).
4-hour chart (short-term momentum)
Key resistance:
$3,340 (previous low turned into resistance)
$3,365 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement)
Downward channel:
Prices have been running along the downward channel since June 22.
Upper rail pressure level: $3,350
Lower rail support: $3,280.
RSI divergence: The price hit a new low but the RSI did not break the previous low, suggesting that there may be an oversold rebound in the short term.
1-hour chart (intraday trading)
Short-term support: $3,310 (Asian session low), if it falls below, it will accelerate the test of 3,290.
Fractal structure: If it breaks through $3,335 (Asian session high), it may trigger short-covering to $3,345.
Trading strategy recommendations:
1: Continue to be long at low prices
2: Entry range: 3305-3315
3: Stop loss range: 3285-3295
4: Target range: 3355-3380
Macro perspective: Gold is in a key trend decision window, and $3290 is the life and death line for both long and short sides
4. Market sentiment analysis:
1): Although the Middle East ceasefire agreement is fragile, safe-haven funds will flow out of gold in the short term.
2): Inflation and policy game: If US tariffs push up inflation, it may re-boost gold's anti-inflation demand.
3): Long-term support factors: Central bank gold purchases, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical uncertainties may still support gold prices.
5. Today's focus: Powell's Senate testimony: If a tough stance is maintained, gold prices may continue to be under pressure.
US economic data: including new home sales, PCE inflation data, etc.
1. Gold price plummeted 2%, falling back to the 60-day moving average
Price dynamics: Spot gold plummeted 2% on Tuesday (June 24), hitting a low of $3295.38/ounce, a new low since June 9, and finally closed at $3322.93/ounce.
In the early Asian trading day on Wednesday, the price of gold fluctuated narrowly around $3323.
Key support level: The 60-day moving average support is at $3290. If it falls below, it may fall further to $3250.
2. The main reason for the decline: the ceasefire in the Middle East + the hawkish signal of the Federal Reserve
The situation in the Middle East has eased:
Iran and Israel announced a ceasefire, which weakened the safe-haven demand for gold.
Market sentiment turned to risk appetite, global stock markets rose, and gold was under pressure.
Powell postpones rate cut expectations:
Fed Chairman Powell said that more time is needed to observe the impact of tariffs on inflation, and the possibility of a rate cut in July is reduced. The market expects the first rate cut to be on September 15.
3. Technical analysis
Short-term trend: Gold prices test the 50-day moving average ($3,317) support level.
If it falls below, it may fall to the $3,290-3,250 range.
Currently, gold prices are rising and encountering resistance in the 3330-3340 range.
If it breaks through, gold prices may rise to the $3360-3380 range.
Moving average system:
The 50-day moving average ($3317) and the 60-day moving average ($3290) form a short-term support band.
If the closing price falls below $3290, the daily level "double top" pattern will be confirmed (the neckline is at $3290 and the target is around $3050).
4-hour chart (short-term momentum)
Key resistance:
$3,340 (previous low turned into resistance)
$3,365 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement)
Downward channel:
Prices have been running along the downward channel since June 22.
Upper rail pressure level: $3,350
Lower rail support: $3,280.
RSI divergence: The price hit a new low but the RSI did not break the previous low, suggesting that there may be an oversold rebound in the short term.
1-hour chart (intraday trading)
Short-term support: $3,310 (Asian session low), if it falls below, it will accelerate the test of 3,290.
Fractal structure: If it breaks through $3,335 (Asian session high), it may trigger short-covering to $3,345.
Trading strategy recommendations:
1: Continue to be long at low prices
2: Entry range: 3305-3315
3: Stop loss range: 3285-3295
4: Target range: 3355-3380
Macro perspective: Gold is in a key trend decision window, and $3290 is the life and death line for both long and short sides
4. Market sentiment analysis:
1): Although the Middle East ceasefire agreement is fragile, safe-haven funds will flow out of gold in the short term.
2): Inflation and policy game: If US tariffs push up inflation, it may re-boost gold's anti-inflation demand.
3): Long-term support factors: Central bank gold purchases, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical uncertainties may still support gold prices.
5. Today's focus: Powell's Senate testimony: If a tough stance is maintained, gold prices may continue to be under pressure.
US economic data: including new home sales, PCE inflation data, etc.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.