Why this direction ?
According to data released last week, U.S. producer prices rebounded in October, which is another sign of the stagnation of the recovery of inflation. On Thursday, it was announced on Thursday that the U.S. Final Demand Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.2% month-on-month, up 2.4% year-on-year; core PPI in October rose 0.3% month-on-month, up 3.5% year-on-year. According to the data released on Wednesday, the consumer inflation rate was basically flat in October. The data does not change the view that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the third time next month, but it prompts economists to expect that the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index will rise in October. The Federal Reserve tracks the PCE price index to assess the achievement of the 2% inflation target. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said on Thursday that the continued economic growth, the stability of the job market and the target of inflation above 2% mean that the Federal Reserve does not need to cut interest rates in a hurry. Powell said that although Federal Reserve staff may begin to assess the possible impact of Trump’s proposals such as tariffs in the campaign, it will take time to understand and will not become clear before the introduction of new laws or executive orders. After Powell’s speech, traders reduced their bets on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in December. The interest rate futures contract market expects the possibility of lowering the policy interest rate by 25 basis points next month to about 60%, which is lower than the previous possibility of nearly 70%. Since the general election, the US dollar has been dominant. However, it should also be noted that with the technical deviation of major currency pairs in testing critical levels, it is estimated that the US dollar may begin to look tired in this round of rise.
Gold performed sluggishly last week, reaching a low of $2,536.70 since September 12 on Thursday, and fell for six consecutive trading days by Friday, and reached a two-month low, suppressed by the strong rise of the US dollar. After the Republican Party’s victory in the general election on November 5, gold plummeted by nearly $200, because the tariffs proposed by President-elect Trump were seen as potential drivers of inflation, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to slow down interest rate cuts and weaken investors’ interest in gold. In terms of technical trends, the gold price clearly missed the 2700 mark and the upward trend line at the beginning of last week, which is stimulating another wave of adjustment trend. By Thursday, it once fell to a two-month low and rebounded slightly at the end of the day. At the same time, it also drove the RSI and stochastic index to show initial signs of recovery from the serious oversold area. The resistance level will look back at $2,580 and $2,620, and the larger resistance is expected to be the 50-day average of $2,650 to $2,675. From the high of 2790 on October 31 to the present, the cumulative decline of gold prices has exceeded $250 in just half a month. So far, the key turning point will be the 100-day average and the 2500 level. The 100-day average line has been an important reference indicator of the trend of gold prices in recent years. In November last year and February this year, the gold price also found important support in this indicator, so the 100-day antenna, which is currently at $2,545, is also particularly important. As for the half-hundred-hundred mark of 2500, its iconic psychological threshold naturally also attracted attention. If this area cannot keep the decline in the gold price, it may show that the gold price may reverse not only in the short term, but also in the medium-term trend; after that, the support will be extended to the lows of 2471.80 and 2450 in September. US dollar.
Gold performed sluggishly last week, reaching a low of $2,536.70 since September 12 on Thursday, and fell for six consecutive trading days by Friday, and reached a two-month low, suppressed by the strong rise of the US dollar. After the Republican Party’s victory in the general election on November 5, gold plummeted by nearly $200, because the tariffs proposed by President-elect Trump were seen as potential drivers of inflation, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to slow down interest rate cuts and weaken investors’ interest in gold. In terms of technical trends, the gold price clearly missed the 2700 mark and the upward trend line at the beginning of last week, which is stimulating another wave of adjustment trend. By Thursday, it once fell to a two-month low and rebounded slightly at the end of the day. At the same time, it also drove the RSI and stochastic index to show initial signs of recovery from the serious oversold area. The resistance level will look back at $2,580 and $2,620, and the larger resistance is expected to be the 50-day average of $2,650 to $2,675. From the high of 2790 on October 31 to the present, the cumulative decline of gold prices has exceeded $250 in just half a month. So far, the key turning point will be the 100-day average and the 2500 level. The 100-day average line has been an important reference indicator of the trend of gold prices in recent years. In November last year and February this year, the gold price also found important support in this indicator, so the 100-day antenna, which is currently at $2,545, is also particularly important. As for the half-hundred-hundred mark of 2500, its iconic psychological threshold naturally also attracted attention. If this area cannot keep the decline in the gold price, it may show that the gold price may reverse not only in the short term, but also in the medium-term trend; after that, the support will be extended to the lows of 2471.80 and 2450 in September. US dollar.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.