XAU/USD (Gold) – 1H Chart Analysis (March 4, 2025)
1. Market Structure & Trend Analysis
Rising Wedge Breakdown: Gold was previously in an ascending wedge pattern, which has broken to the downside.
Key Support at $2,836: This level is a significant horizontal support, and price is likely to test it again.
Lower Highs Formation: The price is making lower highs, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend.
2. RSI & Momentum Analysis
Bearish Divergence: The RSI was making lower highs while the price made higher highs, signaling weakness before the drop.
Current RSI at 62.75: The RSI has rebounded but remains below overbought levels, suggesting that there is still room for a move down.
3. Key Levels to Watch
Resistance:
$2,900 - $2,920 (Wedge breakdown retest; strong resistance zone)
$2,940 (Major resistance if price pushes higher)
Support:
$2,836 (Key level where buyers may step in)
$2,800 - $2,820 (Next major support zone)
4. Potential Trade Scenarios
📉 Bearish Scenario (Higher Probability)
If price fails to reclaim $2,900 and shows weakness, expect a move toward $2,836.
Short Setup:
Entry: $2,895 - $2,900 (retest of breakdown zone)
Stop-loss: Above $2,915
Target: $2,836, then $2,820
📈 Bullish Scenario (Lower Probability)
If price reclaims $2,900 and holds above, we could see a retest of the $2,920 - $2,940 zone.
Long Setup:
Entry: Above $2,900 with confirmation
Stop-loss: Below $2,885
Target: $2,920 - $2,940
5. Conclusion & Strategy
Short-term bias: Bearish towards $2,836, with further downside possible.
Trade idea: Look for rejection at $2,900 to confirm shorts.
Risk management: Watch for false breakouts before entering trades.
1. Market Structure & Trend Analysis
Rising Wedge Breakdown: Gold was previously in an ascending wedge pattern, which has broken to the downside.
Key Support at $2,836: This level is a significant horizontal support, and price is likely to test it again.
Lower Highs Formation: The price is making lower highs, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend.
2. RSI & Momentum Analysis
Bearish Divergence: The RSI was making lower highs while the price made higher highs, signaling weakness before the drop.
Current RSI at 62.75: The RSI has rebounded but remains below overbought levels, suggesting that there is still room for a move down.
3. Key Levels to Watch
Resistance:
$2,900 - $2,920 (Wedge breakdown retest; strong resistance zone)
$2,940 (Major resistance if price pushes higher)
Support:
$2,836 (Key level where buyers may step in)
$2,800 - $2,820 (Next major support zone)
4. Potential Trade Scenarios
📉 Bearish Scenario (Higher Probability)
If price fails to reclaim $2,900 and shows weakness, expect a move toward $2,836.
Short Setup:
Entry: $2,895 - $2,900 (retest of breakdown zone)
Stop-loss: Above $2,915
Target: $2,836, then $2,820
📈 Bullish Scenario (Lower Probability)
If price reclaims $2,900 and holds above, we could see a retest of the $2,920 - $2,940 zone.
Long Setup:
Entry: Above $2,900 with confirmation
Stop-loss: Below $2,885
Target: $2,920 - $2,940
5. Conclusion & Strategy
Short-term bias: Bearish towards $2,836, with further downside possible.
Trade idea: Look for rejection at $2,900 to confirm shorts.
Risk management: Watch for false breakouts before entering trades.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.