📊Analysis of gold trend next week on July 12:
1.🌍 News interpretation: Risk aversion and inflation game resonate with gold prices
The strengthening of the US dollar constitutes short-term pressure
The US dollar index rose to 97.92 last Thursday, a new high in more than two weeks. Although it fell back to 97.58 in the late trading, the overall rebound trend suppressed the gold price;
The strong US dollar has increased the cost of gold purchases for non-US currency holders, suppressing the upward momentum of gold prices in the short term.
Intensified trade frictions have pushed up risk aversion
The Trump administration announced a new round of tariff policies and linked them to the trial of the former Brazilian president, and policy uncertainty has surged;
Many countries may respond to US policies, weakening market risk appetite, and gold will benefit from safe-haven buying inflows.
Rising inflation expectations are bullish for gold
Tariff policies may increase the prices of imported goods and boost inflation expectations;
Gold's attractiveness as an anti-inflation asset has increased, but it is necessary to beware of the capital diversion effect caused by the simultaneous rise in US bond yields.
The stability of the U.S. bond market brings mild support
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bensonte made it clear that there is no plan to increase the scale of long-term Treasury auctions;
The stability of the U.S. bond market helps control yield fluctuations and indirectly supports gold.
✅ Summary: The news is mixed. Overall, gold benefits from risk aversion and inflation expectations, but the U.S. dollar and the bond market still have short-term restraining power. We need to pay attention to the dynamics of trade negotiations and the risk of continued strength of the U.S. dollar.
2. 📉 Technical analysis: The long structure has not been broken, and low-long is still the main theme
▶ Daily line analysis (mid-term trend):
Structure: Continuous small positive, K line runs above the short-term moving average;
Key position: Positive test of the key resistance of the middle track 3345-3346. If the continuous positive breakthrough stands firm, it will start a new round of upward movement;
Indicator: MACD zero axis below the repair is completed. If the golden cross is large, it will usher in a strong momentum to attack 3400-3420.
▶ 4-hour chart (band rhythm):
Last Friday, a big negative line appeared, which briefly lost the middle track, but then quickly recovered and continued to rise;
The price is currently stable above the annual average line of 3330, showing solid support;
The negative line is regarded as "luring empty washing", the trend structure has not been broken, and the band bullish rhythm has not changed.
▶ 1-hour chart (short-term strategy):
Breakthrough confirmation: Gold price broke through the upper track of the 3326 channel with a big positive line in the Asian morning, and rebounded quickly after confirmation, with continuity;
Sideways and shocks: The European session was consolidated around 3345-3332, and the momentum was obvious;
Short-term opportunities:
If it effectively stands at 3345, the upper targets will point to 3370 and 3390 respectively;
If it only breaks through falsely and does not stand firm, the price is likely to fall back to the 10-day moving average or the lower track of the channel to attack again.
3. 📌 Operation strategy suggestions (next week)
✅ Main idea: mainly long on pullback
Return to support to confirm 3335-3336 long stop loss 3329 target 3350, 3365, 3374
Lure short and then stabilize above 3320 to stabilize and go long stop loss 3310 target 3345, 3370
❌ Auxiliary idea: short on rebound under pressure
3375-3385 encounters resistance and rises pressure zone 3375-3385 stop loss above 3390 target 3350, 3335 (light position, fast in and fast out)
4. 📍Key focus positions next week
Type Key positions
Strong support 3320 / 3330 / 3335
Strong resistance 3375 / 3385 / 3400
Trend turning point 3345 (if it stabilizes, the rise will accelerate)
V. 🎯 Summary of trading suggestions
The current trend of gold is in the stage of accumulating momentum for a breakthrough, and the mid-line structure still tends to be bullish;
The operation is mainly based on the callback low-to-long, focusing on finding the entry point around the 3330-3335 support area;
If the market breaks through and stabilizes at 3345-3346, you can gradually increase your position and focus on 3374-3400;
If you encounter a market that induces short selling, the big negative retracement does not break 3320, which is still a high-quality low-absorption position;
Short orders only try to lightly arrange positions when 3375-3385 is under obvious pressure, and avoid blindly shorting against the trend.
1.🌍 News interpretation: Risk aversion and inflation game resonate with gold prices
The strengthening of the US dollar constitutes short-term pressure
The US dollar index rose to 97.92 last Thursday, a new high in more than two weeks. Although it fell back to 97.58 in the late trading, the overall rebound trend suppressed the gold price;
The strong US dollar has increased the cost of gold purchases for non-US currency holders, suppressing the upward momentum of gold prices in the short term.
Intensified trade frictions have pushed up risk aversion
The Trump administration announced a new round of tariff policies and linked them to the trial of the former Brazilian president, and policy uncertainty has surged;
Many countries may respond to US policies, weakening market risk appetite, and gold will benefit from safe-haven buying inflows.
Rising inflation expectations are bullish for gold
Tariff policies may increase the prices of imported goods and boost inflation expectations;
Gold's attractiveness as an anti-inflation asset has increased, but it is necessary to beware of the capital diversion effect caused by the simultaneous rise in US bond yields.
The stability of the U.S. bond market brings mild support
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bensonte made it clear that there is no plan to increase the scale of long-term Treasury auctions;
The stability of the U.S. bond market helps control yield fluctuations and indirectly supports gold.
✅ Summary: The news is mixed. Overall, gold benefits from risk aversion and inflation expectations, but the U.S. dollar and the bond market still have short-term restraining power. We need to pay attention to the dynamics of trade negotiations and the risk of continued strength of the U.S. dollar.
2. 📉 Technical analysis: The long structure has not been broken, and low-long is still the main theme
▶ Daily line analysis (mid-term trend):
Structure: Continuous small positive, K line runs above the short-term moving average;
Key position: Positive test of the key resistance of the middle track 3345-3346. If the continuous positive breakthrough stands firm, it will start a new round of upward movement;
Indicator: MACD zero axis below the repair is completed. If the golden cross is large, it will usher in a strong momentum to attack 3400-3420.
▶ 4-hour chart (band rhythm):
Last Friday, a big negative line appeared, which briefly lost the middle track, but then quickly recovered and continued to rise;
The price is currently stable above the annual average line of 3330, showing solid support;
The negative line is regarded as "luring empty washing", the trend structure has not been broken, and the band bullish rhythm has not changed.
▶ 1-hour chart (short-term strategy):
Breakthrough confirmation: Gold price broke through the upper track of the 3326 channel with a big positive line in the Asian morning, and rebounded quickly after confirmation, with continuity;
Sideways and shocks: The European session was consolidated around 3345-3332, and the momentum was obvious;
Short-term opportunities:
If it effectively stands at 3345, the upper targets will point to 3370 and 3390 respectively;
If it only breaks through falsely and does not stand firm, the price is likely to fall back to the 10-day moving average or the lower track of the channel to attack again.
3. 📌 Operation strategy suggestions (next week)
✅ Main idea: mainly long on pullback
Return to support to confirm 3335-3336 long stop loss 3329 target 3350, 3365, 3374
Lure short and then stabilize above 3320 to stabilize and go long stop loss 3310 target 3345, 3370
❌ Auxiliary idea: short on rebound under pressure
3375-3385 encounters resistance and rises pressure zone 3375-3385 stop loss above 3390 target 3350, 3335 (light position, fast in and fast out)
4. 📍Key focus positions next week
Type Key positions
Strong support 3320 / 3330 / 3335
Strong resistance 3375 / 3385 / 3400
Trend turning point 3345 (if it stabilizes, the rise will accelerate)
V. 🎯 Summary of trading suggestions
The current trend of gold is in the stage of accumulating momentum for a breakthrough, and the mid-line structure still tends to be bullish;
The operation is mainly based on the callback low-to-long, focusing on finding the entry point around the 3330-3335 support area;
If the market breaks through and stabilizes at 3345-3346, you can gradually increase your position and focus on 3374-3400;
If you encounter a market that induces short selling, the big negative retracement does not break 3320, which is still a high-quality low-absorption position;
Short orders only try to lightly arrange positions when 3375-3385 is under obvious pressure, and avoid blindly shorting against the trend.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+7W6lfjoqQ-Y2NjU0
🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
💹Technical analysis (K-line patterns, trend lines, indicator systems)
✅Gold's safe-haven properties and asset allocation strategy
🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
💹Technical analysis (K-line patterns, trend lines, indicator systems)
✅Gold's safe-haven properties and asset allocation strategy
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+7W6lfjoqQ-Y2NjU0
🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
💹Technical analysis (K-line patterns, trend lines, indicator systems)
✅Gold's safe-haven properties and asset allocation strategy
🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
💹Technical analysis (K-line patterns, trend lines, indicator systems)
✅Gold's safe-haven properties and asset allocation strategy
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.