Gold market trend analysis next week:
Analysis of gold news: On Friday (January 17), the rise in the U.S. dollar put pressure on gold prices, but due to uncertainty about incoming President Donald Trump’s policies and the market once again bet on further interest rate cuts, gold prices The key $2,700 level was breached, so gold remains on track for a weekly gain. Gold prices hit a new high in more than a month on Thursday, just $65.6 shy of October's all-time high of $2,790.15. Gold prices have gained 0.5% so far this week, their third straight weekly gain, after weaker-than-expected U.S. core inflation data on Wednesday fueled speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more than once. Traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice before the end of the year, and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller hinted that the Fed may cut interest rates further if economic data weakens further. Despite gold's recent strong performance, some analysts say the metal still needs to break out of the consolidation period of the past two months to achieve greater gains.
The market is now eagerly awaiting Trump's inauguration on January 20, which analysts expect will bring challenges to the gold market. Trump's aggressive rhetoric about supporting US manufacturing through trade tariffs continues to push the US dollar index to a high of more than 109 points, while raising inflation concerns and worries about a global trade war. Outgoing U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the Treasury Department will take special accounting operations starting on January 21 to avoid breaching the debt ceiling. She again urged lawmakers to take steps to raise or suspend the statutory ceiling. Yellen wrote in a letter to bipartisan leaders of Congress on Friday that she is informing lawmakers that the Treasury Department will use extraordinary measures starting January 21. Fed Governor Waller said that if US economic data weakens further, three or four rate cuts this year are still possible. Traders expect two rate cuts before the end of the year, with Fed Governor John Waller suggesting more could come if economic data weakens further. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation and political uncertainty, has no yield, and can benefit from lower interest rates.
Gold prices fell on Friday (January 17) as U.S. inflation data and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials reignited hopes that the central bank could cut interest rates multiple times this year. U.S. inflation data released earlier this week rekindled market expectations that the Fed could cut interest rates multiple times this year. It closed higher for three consecutive trading days. Gold hit its highest point since December 12, 2024 on Thursday this week at $2,724.61. The dollar index is expected to fall about 0.5% this week, ending a six-week winning streak. After the release of U.S. core inflation data on Wednesday, traders began to digest the expectation that there could be two rate cuts this year. Gold has been supported this week by weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data such as PPI and CPI data and dovish comments from Fed policymakers. The continued uncertainty in 2025 further enhances the appeal of gold.
Gold technical analysis: I believe that friends are aware of the importance of the high point near 2,726. The previous two shocks have successfully ushered in a sharp decline, indicating a large amount of short suppression. At present, the impact is blocked again, and the day has ushered in a volatile downward trend, breaking this week's slow bullish trend. On the 4-hour chart, the market has surged upward many times, but the momentum of the bulls has not increased. Moreover, the 4-hour price has moved outside the upper Bollinger Band, which is a bit overbought. Now that the price is so high, let's not chase the price higher. The high position is a bit passivated and needs to be adjusted and repaired. High-altitude operation can be considered, but the position must be chosen correctly. When the price of gold has corrected in place, it may be easier to go long at a low level than short at a high level. You just need to pay more attention and don't blindly chase long positions. Judging from the structure of the 1-hour chart, gold has started to rise since around 2596, and the highs and lows have gradually risen. As long as it has not fallen below the key support line, we'd better follow the bullish thinking and let's go again. Looking at the technical indicators, the DIFF line and DEA line in MACD have crossed downward, which shows that the short-term trend is not optimistic. Although the overall trend of gold is still upward, the possibility of a correction in the short term is relatively large. However, this small correction will not change the overall situation. On the whole, gold prices are still trending upward. If the gold price continues to pull back, our team of senior professional analysts believes that we can focus on the price range of 2690 to 2700 and consider buying on dips.
Taken together, in terms of short-term operation ideas for gold next week, our senior professional analyst team recommends mainly longs at low levels during callbacks, supplemented by shorts at rebound highs. The upper short-term focus will be on the 2717-2722 first-line resistance, and the lower short-term focus will be on the 2690-2685 first-line support. .
Trade active
The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged on January 29 and will cut rates again in March, a Reuters poll showed. Policymakers are digesting a raft of new economic policies expected to be introduced in Washington. The poll also showed that lingering inflationary pressures may only allow the Fed to cut rates once more. Concerns about Trump's promises, from sweeping tariffs and extended tax cuts to deporting illegal immigrants, have already caused Treasury yields to rise sharply before he took office. The already strong economic outlook and the Fed's future interest rate path will depend on the extent to which the new administration delivers on those promises. All 103 economists surveyed expect the FOMC to keep the key rate at 4.25%-4.50% at its January 28-29 meeting, and nearly 60% expect the Fed to cut rates in March. 65 of the 102 economists expect two or fewer rate cuts this year. The poll also showed that the federal funds rate will be between 3.75% and 4.00% by the end of 2025, much higher than the 3.00%-3.25% predicted a few months ago.Trade closed: target reached
Analysis of the latest gold market trends:
Analysis of gold news: On Monday (January 20) in the European market, spot gold maintained its rebound trend, and the current gold price is around $2,709/ounce; gold traders will focus on the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump, whose remarks may cause sharp market fluctuations. On January 20, Eastern Time, US President-elect Trump will hold an inauguration ceremony, and the highlight of the ceremony - Trump's swearing-in ceremony and inauguration speech will be held at 12 noon Eastern Time, when Trump will officially start his second presidential term. The outside world expects Trump's extensive trade tariffs to further stimulate inflation and trigger a trade war, which may increase the safe-haven appeal of gold. Looking ahead to this trading day, gold prices are still facing the risk of two-way fluctuations. The thin market trading during the holiday and speculation around Trump's "first day" executive order may exaggerate the fluctuations of gold prices. The uncertainty of Trump's tariffs and trade policies on the global economy and their potential impact on economic growth are expected to maintain the safe-haven demand for gold. In addition, January 20 (Monday) is "Martin Luther King Day", and the US stock market will be closed for one day.
Gold technical analysis: Gold prices bottomed out and rebounded in the early Asian session, and the low point happened to be at the 2690 line, which is also consistent with the point expected by our professional and senior gold analyst team last week. Gold has opened a deep V rebound pattern with a large amplitude. For now, the early trading directly continued to decline. In the short term, it is expected to retrace the four-hour lower line and the weekly chart gap. The hourly chart is also short-selling. Therefore, for the current market, theoretically speaking, it is definitely a rebound high to short. There is no US market today, so waiting for the rebound to short can only be a slogan. Although the market continues to fall, it is not suitable for chasing shorts. The upper pressure is 2713. If it rebounds to this point during the day, an effective short order can be made. The lower side gradually sees 2690 and 2680, and the strong force directly sees 2650.
The 4th cycle of gold is very obvious. 2725 peaked, Bollinger closed, and after continuous negative closing, the moving average spread up and down. At the beginning of the week, it should at least go to the 2670 support point below. Therefore, this proves that 2680 will definitely break, and the trend this week will definitely Will switch, therefore, to be firmly bearish on gold until the effective expected target is reached. On the whole, our professional and senior gold analyst team recommends rebound shorting as the main operation strategy for gold today, and callback longing as the auxiliary. The short-term focus on the upper side is 2720-2725 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 2695-2690 support.
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💹In-depth analysis, accurate prediction, grasp the pulse of the gold market, if you like my ideas, please follow and forward
🏆Strategy guidance
💰Analysis layout
🥇Market tracking
💹In-depth analysis, accurate prediction, grasp the pulse of the gold market, if you like my ideas, please follow and forward
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