Hello traders,
**Thursday Logic Analysis + Opportunity Analysis (2025.02.27)**
On Wednesday morning, shortly after the USD/JPY exchange rate suddenly plummeted to the 148 range, a piece of news that could easily be overlooked emerged: "The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will provide USD funding secured by merged collateral."
This means the BOJ will accept government bonds, corporate bonds, foreign exchange reserves, and other assets as collateral to inject USD into the market.
Once the news broke, the precarious USD/JPY exchange rate immediately rebounded, briefly approaching the safe range of 150.
Unfortunately, as the BOJ slightly relaxed its stance, the USD/JPY rate fell back to the 148 range.
Such extreme volatility is very dangerous; continuous "blood transfusions" are necessary, or the market may "collapse," which would trigger a chain reaction. A key indicator to watch is the Nikkei Index; the 38,000 point mark is crucial. If it falls below this level, a large number of structured derivatives will face the risk of liquidation.
If a lack of liquidity is causing asset prices to decline broadly, why did the dollar weaken last night?
It's simple: if it were just a sell-off of dollar assets, the dollar should strengthen; however, if capital flows out to exchange for other currencies after selling dollar assets, it will lead to a weakening of the dollar (equivalent to an increase in dollar supply).
Currently, the USD/JPY exchange rate is still experiencing extreme volatility. Given the BOJ's operational level, it's essentially "wounding the enemy 100 while injuring oneself 1000." Ultimately, it depends on whether Trump will implement tariff policies against Mexico and Canada on March 4, which would temporarily strengthen the dollar index and alleviate the threat of yen appreciation on arbitrage trading liquidation.
As long as the risk of arbitrage trading liquidations exists, it poses a significant threat to liquidity. For futures in gold and crude oil, when liquidity tightens, the threats are the same; every snowflake is alike!
**[Gold]**
On Wednesday, the internal alert stated: "In the four-hour chart, during the late trading hours on Tuesday, gold experienced a significant drop followed by a deep pullback. However, it is still under pressure from the EMA, with clear upper shadows on the candlesticks, indicating that bearish forces are waiting for new opportunities!
New short positions in gold on Wednesday need to wait for a one-hour entry signal during the European and American trading hours, with an entry near the 2920-2930 range.
New position targets:
TP1: 2890
TP2: 2880
TP3: 2840
Thursday trading plan: In the one-hour chart, consider entering a short position in gold during the European and American crossover trading hours, waiting for a bearish one-hour candlestick signal after a consolidation period.
TP1: 2870
TP2: 2850
GOOD LUCK!
LESS IS MORE!
**Thursday Logic Analysis + Opportunity Analysis (2025.02.27)**
On Wednesday morning, shortly after the USD/JPY exchange rate suddenly plummeted to the 148 range, a piece of news that could easily be overlooked emerged: "The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will provide USD funding secured by merged collateral."
This means the BOJ will accept government bonds, corporate bonds, foreign exchange reserves, and other assets as collateral to inject USD into the market.
Once the news broke, the precarious USD/JPY exchange rate immediately rebounded, briefly approaching the safe range of 150.
Unfortunately, as the BOJ slightly relaxed its stance, the USD/JPY rate fell back to the 148 range.
Such extreme volatility is very dangerous; continuous "blood transfusions" are necessary, or the market may "collapse," which would trigger a chain reaction. A key indicator to watch is the Nikkei Index; the 38,000 point mark is crucial. If it falls below this level, a large number of structured derivatives will face the risk of liquidation.
If a lack of liquidity is causing asset prices to decline broadly, why did the dollar weaken last night?
It's simple: if it were just a sell-off of dollar assets, the dollar should strengthen; however, if capital flows out to exchange for other currencies after selling dollar assets, it will lead to a weakening of the dollar (equivalent to an increase in dollar supply).
Currently, the USD/JPY exchange rate is still experiencing extreme volatility. Given the BOJ's operational level, it's essentially "wounding the enemy 100 while injuring oneself 1000." Ultimately, it depends on whether Trump will implement tariff policies against Mexico and Canada on March 4, which would temporarily strengthen the dollar index and alleviate the threat of yen appreciation on arbitrage trading liquidation.
As long as the risk of arbitrage trading liquidations exists, it poses a significant threat to liquidity. For futures in gold and crude oil, when liquidity tightens, the threats are the same; every snowflake is alike!
**[Gold]**
On Wednesday, the internal alert stated: "In the four-hour chart, during the late trading hours on Tuesday, gold experienced a significant drop followed by a deep pullback. However, it is still under pressure from the EMA, with clear upper shadows on the candlesticks, indicating that bearish forces are waiting for new opportunities!
New short positions in gold on Wednesday need to wait for a one-hour entry signal during the European and American trading hours, with an entry near the 2920-2930 range.
New position targets:
TP1: 2890
TP2: 2880
TP3: 2840
Thursday trading plan: In the one-hour chart, consider entering a short position in gold during the European and American crossover trading hours, waiting for a bearish one-hour candlestick signal after a consolidation period.
TP1: 2870
TP2: 2850
GOOD LUCK!
LESS IS MORE!
Trade active
TP1 Hit.Trade closed: target reached
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Tele: t.me/+Q5K2Z5r3BhCe1c1l
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Copy trading service：social.xm.com/s/kRqA3rRj ABC Swing trading strategy Course Consul wechat: ziyuvera
signalsofswingtrading.com
Tele: t.me/+Q5K2Z5r3BhCe1c1l
signalsofswingtrading.com
Tele: t.me/+Q5K2Z5r3BhCe1c1l
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.