July 29 Gold Analysis
🔥 1. Current Market Structure: A Deep Game of Bulls and Bears
Current Gold Price: Surging around $3,325/oz, at the intersection of the early July rising trend line and the key support zone ($3,310-3,325).
Core Conflicts:
Short-selling Suppression: The US-EU trade agreement (EU increased its holdings of US goods by $1.3 trillion) stimulates risk appetite, while a rebounding US dollar suppresses gold.
Bull Support: Global central banks accelerate their "de-dollarization" gold purchases (structural buying), lurking geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine/Middle East standoff), and expectations of a Fed rate cut.
🌪️ 2. Key Drivers
1. US Dollar: Short-Term Strength vs. Long-Term Concerns
Rebound Momentum: Growth in US core capital goods orders and trade optimism are driving the dollar's recovery, increasing the cost of gold for holders of non-US currencies.
Potential Bearish Factors: Trump's pressure for a rate cut and the Fed's cautious stance led to the dollar's largest drop in a month last week, raising questions about its sustainability.
2. Risk Sentiment: Agreement Reached, But Hidden Cracks
Market Reaction: The US-EU Framework Agreement Boosted Stock Markets, While Safe-Having Gold Demand Suffered Short-Term Setbacks;
Pigments of the Agreement: Criticism Within the EU (Will Harm the Regional Economy), and Uncertainty About Subsequent Implementation.
3. Geopolitical Risks: Low-Level Risks Continue to Fester
The Gaza Ceasefire Deadlock, the Thai-Cambodian Conflict, and the US-Israel Confrontation Over the Palestinian Issue—Any escalation could trigger a return of safe-haven buying.
📉 III. Technical Analysis: Converging Triangle Awaiting a Break
Lifeline: Support at 3310-3300 (July Rising Trend Line + Previous Platform). A break below this level opens the door to a decline towards 3285-3295.
Rebound Signal: After stabilizing within the current range, resistance is expected at 3330/3350.
Market Implications: The daily chart is entering the final stages of consolidation, and major events this week could trigger a unilateral rally.
💣 IV. A Complete Perspective on Super Week Events
▶ Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (July 31st) - Eye of the Storm
Market Expectations: Maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% (probability >95%);
Focus:
Dot Plot: Does it signal a September rate cut?
Powell's Speech: Responding to Trump's pressure for a rate cut (dovish = bullish for gold);
Policy Tone: "Higher and Longer" vs. "Data-Dependent" Wording Changes.
🎯 V. Institutional Differences and Trading Strategies
Bull-Short Battle
Bears (36% of Institutions): A rebound in the US dollar and pressure on risk appetite will push the market down to $3,250;
Bullish (66% of Retail Investors): Central bank gold purchases and geopolitical buffer zones support medium- to long-term value;
Wait-and-See (50% of Institutions): Wait for the Fed to finalize its tone before making any moves.
Today's Recommended Strategy:
Trading After a Breakout: (Enter the market after waiting for confirmation)
Short Opportunities: Go short if the price breaks below $3310, target $3260, stop loss $3320.
Long Opportunities: Follow the price if the price breaks through $3330 with large volume, target $3360, stop loss $3320.
Range-bound Trading: Buy low and sell high between $3310 and $3330 (stop loss $3 if the price breaks through).
Trade with caution and manage risk! Wish you good luck!
🔥 1. Current Market Structure: A Deep Game of Bulls and Bears
Current Gold Price: Surging around $3,325/oz, at the intersection of the early July rising trend line and the key support zone ($3,310-3,325).
Core Conflicts:
Short-selling Suppression: The US-EU trade agreement (EU increased its holdings of US goods by $1.3 trillion) stimulates risk appetite, while a rebounding US dollar suppresses gold.
Bull Support: Global central banks accelerate their "de-dollarization" gold purchases (structural buying), lurking geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine/Middle East standoff), and expectations of a Fed rate cut.
🌪️ 2. Key Drivers
1. US Dollar: Short-Term Strength vs. Long-Term Concerns
Rebound Momentum: Growth in US core capital goods orders and trade optimism are driving the dollar's recovery, increasing the cost of gold for holders of non-US currencies.
Potential Bearish Factors: Trump's pressure for a rate cut and the Fed's cautious stance led to the dollar's largest drop in a month last week, raising questions about its sustainability.
2. Risk Sentiment: Agreement Reached, But Hidden Cracks
Market Reaction: The US-EU Framework Agreement Boosted Stock Markets, While Safe-Having Gold Demand Suffered Short-Term Setbacks;
Pigments of the Agreement: Criticism Within the EU (Will Harm the Regional Economy), and Uncertainty About Subsequent Implementation.
3. Geopolitical Risks: Low-Level Risks Continue to Fester
The Gaza Ceasefire Deadlock, the Thai-Cambodian Conflict, and the US-Israel Confrontation Over the Palestinian Issue—Any escalation could trigger a return of safe-haven buying.
📉 III. Technical Analysis: Converging Triangle Awaiting a Break
Lifeline: Support at 3310-3300 (July Rising Trend Line + Previous Platform). A break below this level opens the door to a decline towards 3285-3295.
Rebound Signal: After stabilizing within the current range, resistance is expected at 3330/3350.
Market Implications: The daily chart is entering the final stages of consolidation, and major events this week could trigger a unilateral rally.
💣 IV. A Complete Perspective on Super Week Events
▶ Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (July 31st) - Eye of the Storm
Market Expectations: Maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% (probability >95%);
Focus:
Dot Plot: Does it signal a September rate cut?
Powell's Speech: Responding to Trump's pressure for a rate cut (dovish = bullish for gold);
Policy Tone: "Higher and Longer" vs. "Data-Dependent" Wording Changes.
🎯 V. Institutional Differences and Trading Strategies
Bull-Short Battle
Bears (36% of Institutions): A rebound in the US dollar and pressure on risk appetite will push the market down to $3,250;
Bullish (66% of Retail Investors): Central bank gold purchases and geopolitical buffer zones support medium- to long-term value;
Wait-and-See (50% of Institutions): Wait for the Fed to finalize its tone before making any moves.
Today's Recommended Strategy:
Trading After a Breakout: (Enter the market after waiting for confirmation)
Short Opportunities: Go short if the price breaks below $3310, target $3260, stop loss $3320.
Long Opportunities: Follow the price if the price breaks through $3330 with large volume, target $3360, stop loss $3320.
Range-bound Trading: Buy low and sell high between $3310 and $3330 (stop loss $3 if the price breaks through).
Trade with caution and manage risk! Wish you good luck!
❤️I am a trading researcher focusing on the gold field.
❤️If you are looking for direction, welcome to follow me.
👉t.me/+CW0VWaiEB59hMmJh
❤️If you are looking for direction, welcome to follow me.
👉t.me/+CW0VWaiEB59hMmJh
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️I am a trading researcher focusing on the gold field.
❤️If you are looking for direction, welcome to follow me.
👉t.me/+CW0VWaiEB59hMmJh
❤️If you are looking for direction, welcome to follow me.
👉t.me/+CW0VWaiEB59hMmJh
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.