GOLD recovers, but technical conditions lean bearish

Updated

XAUUSD recovering to above the price of 2,300 USD as of the time this article was being completed. The previous trading day, gold prices reached their largest decline in 3 and a half years due to data released by China and the United States.

Gold prices fell about $83, or 3.5%, last Friday, the biggest one-day drop since November 2020, after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report dampened hopes for a interest rate cut in September, while news that China's central bank is delaying gold purchases caused the market to reduce bets on demand from China, one of the world's biggest gold buyers. .

Market focus has shifted to the US consumer inflation report, released on Wednesday, the same day as the Federal Reserve's policy decision.
The Fed is not expected to make any changes this week, focusing on comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and changes to policymakers' economic forecasts.

GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY [June 10 - June 14]

On the daily chart, gold is trying to recover above the $2,300 base price and a daily close above this base price would be a positive signal. To confirm, gold should maintain price activity above $2,305, a technical level noted by readers in Sunday's weekly edition.

On the other hand, if gold moves below the original price level of 2,300 USD again, it will continue to be under technical pressure with the target level possibly aiming at the price point of 2,272 USD, the location of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement.
Holding above $2,305 would strengthen the case for a recovery with a target then around $2,324, a position that was also brought to the attention of readers in the weekly publication.

During the day, the technical trend is still leaning more towards bearish possibilities, positions will be noticed again as follows.
Support: 2,300 – 2,286 – 2,272USD
Resistance: 2,314 – 2,324USD

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2341 - 2339

⚰️SL: 2345

⬆️TP1: 2334
⬆️TP2: 2329

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2267 - 2269

⚰️SL: 2263

⬆️TP1: 2274
⬆️TP2: 2279

Note

Labor market data reflect mixed signals, but taken together, they show a picture of a US economy in relatively healthy shape. This is something to celebrate, no matter how much people say "good news is bad news in terms of interest rates".

Note

🔴TDS Bank issues its forecasts for the US Federal Reserve's decisions

Experts at TDS Bank said in a research note issued on Tuesday that the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, and Chairman Jerome Powell is likely to provide messages similar to those in May.

Note

Gold prices rose slightly on Tuesday (June 11) despite a rise in the dollar, as investors awaited key US inflation data and the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting. US (Fed) on June 12.

Note

Note

XAUUSD touched the support level of 2290 and then recovered to 2310 with a gradual upward trend. XAUUSD's first resistance line is formed at 2330, and if this initial resistance is overcome, XAUUSD will be able to increase further towards 2350. Conversely, if XAUUSD returns to test the support level of 2290 , gold price may decrease towards 2260.

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Note

THE US FEDERAL RESERVE'S ECONOMIC FORECASTS SHOCK GOLD TRADERS

Yesterday, Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve issued its economic forecasts for the coming years, and in this context, US interest expectations were adjusted to only one cut this year, and US inflation expectations were also revised during this year and next, and these new expectations had a negative impact on gold’s movements.

Note

🟢US unemployment claims data is negative for the second week in a row!

Data issued by the US Labor Office on Thursday showed that the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the country increased to about 242 thousand applications during the past week ending on June 7, which was higher than market expectations, which indicated that applications for unemployment benefits would rise to 225 thousand applications. The previous reading of US unemployment claims recorded 229 thousand applications.

Note

Will persistently improving inflation data be enough for the Fed to begin a easing cycle that benefits markets?

- The US producer price index (PPI) unexpectedly fell in May, with the producer price index falling 0.2% MoM after a steady increase of 0.5% in April. Core PPI MoM also announced lower at 0.0%. (expected 0.3%, previously 0.5%)

Note

Gold prices increased when new data on the US economy increased the possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would start cutting interest rates in September this year.

The University of Michigan's consumer survey report showed that the consumer confidence index in June decreased to 65.6 points, down from 69.1 points in May and much lower than the forecast of 71. 5 points given by economic experts in a survey by Dow Jones news agency.

Note

On the daily chart, although gold recovered from the support level of 2,305 - 2,300 USD that readers noticed last week, in general the recovery momentum is still limited and the downtrend has not been broken.

The recovery momentum of gold price is limited by the confluence area of the technical point 2,345USD, the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, the upper edge of the price channel and the EMA21 moving average. In general, this will be the area where the gold price has all the important technical pressures for a technical downtrend.

As long as gold remains below the EMA21 and within the price channel, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bearish, while if gold breaks below $2,324 it will have room for more downside with the following target level That's about 2,305 - 2,300USD in the short term.

A new bearish cycle is expected to be ushered in once gold breaks below the original price of $2,300, and the subsequent short-term target level is $2,286 more than the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level.

Note

As expected, the Fed agreed to keep monetary policy unchanged. However, their latest forecast suggests just one rate cut before the end of the year, instead of three as suggested in March.

Note

XAUUSD retreated from the support zone at around $2,300 with weak momentum and consolidated just below the resistance zone at $2,350.

If it sustains above $2,325, the price could test $2,350 and the high set on June 7. However, if it trends below the $2,300 support zone, XAUUSD could drop to the support level. next psychological aid.

Note

At a press conference held on Monday, the European Central Bank's chief economist, Philip Lane, noted that in the event of sharp fluctuations in the euro's movements in the forex market, this will have an impact on the ECB's monetary policy decision.

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