🚨 TRADE WAR STORM BREWING – IS A GLOBAL BIGSHORT COMING?
In the past 24 hours, global financial markets have been rocked by the shock announcement of Trump’s aggressive global tariff policy. This isn’t just a geopolitical maneuver — it’s a potential trigger for massive systemic volatility, affecting everything from U.S. equities to Gold, DXY, crypto, and major global indices in Asia and Europe.
🔍 What Just Happened?
We saw Gold crash over 100 points, a move that caught many traders off guard. Under normal circumstances, a weakening USD would be bullish for Gold. But here’s the twist: the Dollar also dropped sharply, yet Gold was still aggressively sold off.
Why?
👉 A plausible explanation is that major funds and investors liquidated their Gold positions to cover equity losses or to meet margin calls from collapsing positions across other markets.
This is no ordinary move — it may well be the beginning of a “BIGSHORT” phase across global assets.
🧨 This Is Just the Beginning
The market reaction suggests that we are not in a routine correction. Instead, we may be witnessing the early stages of a coordinated risk-off movement — one sparked by fears of a new global trade war with far-reaching implications.
Tariffs on aluminum, steel, manufacturing goods, and industrial inputs have already disrupted entire supply chains. Industry-specific disruptions (e.g. construction, healthcare, utilities, wholesale) are beginning to show — this is not a drill.
📉 U.S. Macro Data Is Getting Worse
The headline inflation data in the U.S. continues to fall, but other economic indicators are flashing red:
ISM Services PMI (Mar): 50.8 (vs. 53.0 expected)
Employment: 46.2 (prev: 53.9) — a sharp drop
New Orders: 50.4
Export Orders & Backlogs: Both declined significantly
👉 The ISM Services sector represents more than 70% of U.S. GDP. A reading this weak suggests that the U.S. economy may be slowing faster than expected.
🧠 Market Sentiment Is Shaky
Fear is back. And worse: FOMO and panic are driving decisions, not logic.
Retail and institutional traders alike are struggling to digest the overlapping risks: tariffs, inflation uncertainty, interest rates, and recession fears.
Tonight brings another major catalyst:
📆 Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) — a key employment report that could reinforce or break the current narrative.
🏦 Will the Fed Cut Rates Earlier Than Expected?
Here’s what markets are now pricing in:
Rate cuts may start as early as May or June 2025
Probabilities have risen for 2–4 rate cuts this year, compared to 2 cuts expected previously
Odds of a summer pivot are now well above 50%
If the Fed sees continued weakness in labor and services, it may have no choice but to cut earlier — regardless of inflation progress.
⚠️ Strategic Takeaway: Watch, Don’t Chase
Before looking for entries, take a breath.
This is a time when doing nothing might be the smartest trade.
“Sometimes, staying on the sidelines is how you survive the storm.”
Let the volatility play out — and prepare for high-probability setups, not emotional trades.
📊 TECHNICAL LEVELS TO WATCH
🔺 Resistance Levels:
3110 – 3119 – 3136 – 3148 – 3167
🔻 Support Levels:
3086 – 3075 – 3055 – 3040 – 3024
BUY ZONE: 3056 – 3054
SL: 3050
TP: 3060 – 3064 – 3068 – 3072 – 3076 – 3080
SELL ZONE: 3148 – 3150
SL: 3154
TP: 3144 – 3140 – 3136 – 3132 – 3128 – 3124 – 3120
💬 Final Thoughts
The combination of geopolitical tariffs, recession fears, and Fed policy uncertainty has created a perfect storm across global markets.
We’re entering a phase where any careless trade can wipe out weeks of progress. Be cautious. Stay informed. Wait for clarity before going big.
📌 As for Gold:
Are we seeing just a pullback — or is this the calm before an ATH breakout?
Stay sharp. Set clear SL/TP. Follow the macro, respect the chart — and most importantly, don’t trade scared.
🧠 Patience is profit. Let the market come to you.
In the past 24 hours, global financial markets have been rocked by the shock announcement of Trump’s aggressive global tariff policy. This isn’t just a geopolitical maneuver — it’s a potential trigger for massive systemic volatility, affecting everything from U.S. equities to Gold, DXY, crypto, and major global indices in Asia and Europe.
🔍 What Just Happened?
We saw Gold crash over 100 points, a move that caught many traders off guard. Under normal circumstances, a weakening USD would be bullish for Gold. But here’s the twist: the Dollar also dropped sharply, yet Gold was still aggressively sold off.
Why?
👉 A plausible explanation is that major funds and investors liquidated their Gold positions to cover equity losses or to meet margin calls from collapsing positions across other markets.
This is no ordinary move — it may well be the beginning of a “BIGSHORT” phase across global assets.
🧨 This Is Just the Beginning
The market reaction suggests that we are not in a routine correction. Instead, we may be witnessing the early stages of a coordinated risk-off movement — one sparked by fears of a new global trade war with far-reaching implications.
Tariffs on aluminum, steel, manufacturing goods, and industrial inputs have already disrupted entire supply chains. Industry-specific disruptions (e.g. construction, healthcare, utilities, wholesale) are beginning to show — this is not a drill.
📉 U.S. Macro Data Is Getting Worse
The headline inflation data in the U.S. continues to fall, but other economic indicators are flashing red:
ISM Services PMI (Mar): 50.8 (vs. 53.0 expected)
Employment: 46.2 (prev: 53.9) — a sharp drop
New Orders: 50.4
Export Orders & Backlogs: Both declined significantly
👉 The ISM Services sector represents more than 70% of U.S. GDP. A reading this weak suggests that the U.S. economy may be slowing faster than expected.
🧠 Market Sentiment Is Shaky
Fear is back. And worse: FOMO and panic are driving decisions, not logic.
Retail and institutional traders alike are struggling to digest the overlapping risks: tariffs, inflation uncertainty, interest rates, and recession fears.
Tonight brings another major catalyst:
📆 Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) — a key employment report that could reinforce or break the current narrative.
🏦 Will the Fed Cut Rates Earlier Than Expected?
Here’s what markets are now pricing in:
Rate cuts may start as early as May or June 2025
Probabilities have risen for 2–4 rate cuts this year, compared to 2 cuts expected previously
Odds of a summer pivot are now well above 50%
If the Fed sees continued weakness in labor and services, it may have no choice but to cut earlier — regardless of inflation progress.
⚠️ Strategic Takeaway: Watch, Don’t Chase
Before looking for entries, take a breath.
This is a time when doing nothing might be the smartest trade.
“Sometimes, staying on the sidelines is how you survive the storm.”
Let the volatility play out — and prepare for high-probability setups, not emotional trades.
📊 TECHNICAL LEVELS TO WATCH
🔺 Resistance Levels:
3110 – 3119 – 3136 – 3148 – 3167
🔻 Support Levels:
3086 – 3075 – 3055 – 3040 – 3024
BUY ZONE: 3056 – 3054
SL: 3050
TP: 3060 – 3064 – 3068 – 3072 – 3076 – 3080
SELL ZONE: 3148 – 3150
SL: 3154
TP: 3144 – 3140 – 3136 – 3132 – 3128 – 3124 – 3120
💬 Final Thoughts
The combination of geopolitical tariffs, recession fears, and Fed policy uncertainty has created a perfect storm across global markets.
We’re entering a phase where any careless trade can wipe out weeks of progress. Be cautious. Stay informed. Wait for clarity before going big.
📌 As for Gold:
Are we seeing just a pullback — or is this the calm before an ATH breakout?
Stay sharp. Set clear SL/TP. Follow the macro, respect the chart — and most importantly, don’t trade scared.
🧠 Patience is profit. Let the market come to you.
⚜️ Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action 📉📈
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 7 to 15 Signals Vip
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 7 to 15 Signals Vip
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
⚜️ Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action 📉📈
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 7 to 15 Signals Vip
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 7 to 15 Signals Vip
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.