Urgent Gold Market Analysis: Trading Strategies After Iran's Parliament Approves Closing the Strait of Hormuz
I. Geopolitics: Market Reactions from "Threat" to "Action Countdown"
Iran's parliament has formally approved closing the Strait of Hormuz, though final decision-making rests with the Supreme National Security Council. This news is like lighting a fuse on a powder keg—while an actual blockade hasn’t occurred, the market has started pricing in "probability risks". Historical data shows the Strait of Hormuz handles 21% of global oil consumption (about 21 million barrels per day). If blocked, oil prices could surge 10%-15% within 48 hours, directly fueling global inflation expectations.
The current market contradiction lies in:
- **Tug-of-war between short-term panic and long-term doubt**: Hardline Iranian advisors have publicly called for "immediately closing the strait and striking U.S. warships", but the Supreme National Security Council is still weighing the costs of "mutual destruction"—80% of Iran’s own oil exports depend on the strait. This "brinkmanship" has trapped gold in a "neither rising nor falling" range, similar to knowing a storm is coming but unsure when to open an umbrella.
- **Signal game of military deployments**: The U.S. aircraft carrier Ford has arrived in the Arabian Sea, forming a three-carrier strike group with two others, while Iran has deployed missile boat clusters and electronic warfare units along the strait. This "tit-for-tat" posture makes gold’s safe-haven buying exhibit "event-driven" characteristics—each U.S. warship movement or Iranian missile drill triggers $5-$10 fluctuations in gold prices.
The market now stands at the center of a teeter-totter: on the left is the "energy bomb" of the Strait of Hormuz, and on the right is the "recession ghost" of the U.S. economy. $3,350 is the balance point, and the meeting minutes of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council will be the key weight determining which way the teeter-totter tilts. Operationally, it is recommended to refresh vessel tracking data and U.S. military movements every 4 hours to avoid being blindsided by market surprises amid information lags.
Analysis of gold trend next week, hope it helps you
XAUUSD buy@3370~3380
SL:3350
TP：3390~3400
I. Geopolitics: Market Reactions from "Threat" to "Action Countdown"
Iran's parliament has formally approved closing the Strait of Hormuz, though final decision-making rests with the Supreme National Security Council. This news is like lighting a fuse on a powder keg—while an actual blockade hasn’t occurred, the market has started pricing in "probability risks". Historical data shows the Strait of Hormuz handles 21% of global oil consumption (about 21 million barrels per day). If blocked, oil prices could surge 10%-15% within 48 hours, directly fueling global inflation expectations.
The current market contradiction lies in:
- **Tug-of-war between short-term panic and long-term doubt**: Hardline Iranian advisors have publicly called for "immediately closing the strait and striking U.S. warships", but the Supreme National Security Council is still weighing the costs of "mutual destruction"—80% of Iran’s own oil exports depend on the strait. This "brinkmanship" has trapped gold in a "neither rising nor falling" range, similar to knowing a storm is coming but unsure when to open an umbrella.
- **Signal game of military deployments**: The U.S. aircraft carrier Ford has arrived in the Arabian Sea, forming a three-carrier strike group with two others, while Iran has deployed missile boat clusters and electronic warfare units along the strait. This "tit-for-tat" posture makes gold’s safe-haven buying exhibit "event-driven" characteristics—each U.S. warship movement or Iranian missile drill triggers $5-$10 fluctuations in gold prices.
The market now stands at the center of a teeter-totter: on the left is the "energy bomb" of the Strait of Hormuz, and on the right is the "recession ghost" of the U.S. economy. $3,350 is the balance point, and the meeting minutes of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council will be the key weight determining which way the teeter-totter tilts. Operationally, it is recommended to refresh vessel tracking data and U.S. military movements every 4 hours to avoid being blindsided by market surprises amid information lags.
Analysis of gold trend next week, hope it helps you
XAUUSD buy@3370~3380
SL:3350
TP：3390~3400
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Free signal channel ：t.me/+TV_kswto0jw3NWU0
Let me guide you to start a profitable journey! 🚀
：t.me/+TV_kswto0jw3NWU0
The accuracy rate is as high as 82 percent. ✅
：t.me/+TV_kswto0jw3NWU0
Let me guide you to start a profitable journey! 🚀
：t.me/+TV_kswto0jw3NWU0
The accuracy rate is as high as 82 percent. ✅
：t.me/+TV_kswto0jw3NWU0
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.