7.25 Gold Analysis
I. Market Trend Review
Yesterday, gold showed a trend of rising and falling:
After a slight rebound at the opening of the Asian session, it continued to be under pressure, and $3386 became the all-day high;
The European session continued to fall, and the short-selling momentum was gradually released;
The US session bottomed out and rebounded, hitting a low of $3350 and then rebounded to close at $3367.
II. Core driving logic
1. Risk aversion demand continues to cool
Trade agreement breakthrough: US-Japan auto tariffs dropped to 15%, and the expected benchmark tariffs of the United States and Europe were adjusted from 30% to 15%, and the market risk preference rebounded significantly;
Change in capital flow: Funds continued to flow from gold to the stock market, and the S&P and Nasdaq set new highs to suppress gold prices.
2. Double pressure from the US dollar and US bonds
Strong job market: US initial jobless claims fell to 217,000 (expected to be 226,000), a three-month low;
US bond yields climbed: 10-year US bond yields broke through 4.4%, and the US dollar index strengthened simultaneously, increasing the cost of holding gold assets.
3. Policy uncertainty lays the groundwork
Trump's surprise visit to the Federal Reserve: the first official visit by a president in nearly 20 years, pressuring interest rate cuts to raise concerns about policy independence;
Cautious sentiment before the Fed's decision: the market entered a "wait-and-see mode", waiting for the July 30 interest rate decision to guide the direction.
3. Technical Pattern and Key Positions
Narrowing of the shock range: The daily line is suppressed by the moving average band (3340-3390),
Weak signal of the hourly chart: The rebound last night failed to break through 3380, indicating that the bullish momentum is insufficient;
Core price level:
Resistance: 3380 (the boundary between the strength and weakness of the Asian and European sessions), 3390 (the short-selling defense line)
Support: 3350 (yesterday's low point), 3340 (trend lifeline)
Structural evolution: If 3350 is broken again during the day, it will confirm the extension of the downward wave and open up the 3324 space.
IV. Trading strategy and risk control
Intraday operation logic
Conservative strategy: Reduce trading frequency, focus on the breakthrough direction of 3340-3350 range;
Aggressive strategy:
▶ Short opportunity: 3352-3363 light position short, stop loss above 3370, target 3340 (hold after breakout)
▶ Long defense: Short near 3340 is limited to fast entry and exit, stop loss 3335, target 3355
Trade carefully and control risks! I wish you a smooth transaction!
I. Market Trend Review
Yesterday, gold showed a trend of rising and falling:
After a slight rebound at the opening of the Asian session, it continued to be under pressure, and $3386 became the all-day high;
The European session continued to fall, and the short-selling momentum was gradually released;
The US session bottomed out and rebounded, hitting a low of $3350 and then rebounded to close at $3367.
II. Core driving logic
1. Risk aversion demand continues to cool
Trade agreement breakthrough: US-Japan auto tariffs dropped to 15%, and the expected benchmark tariffs of the United States and Europe were adjusted from 30% to 15%, and the market risk preference rebounded significantly;
Change in capital flow: Funds continued to flow from gold to the stock market, and the S&P and Nasdaq set new highs to suppress gold prices.
2. Double pressure from the US dollar and US bonds
Strong job market: US initial jobless claims fell to 217,000 (expected to be 226,000), a three-month low;
US bond yields climbed: 10-year US bond yields broke through 4.4%, and the US dollar index strengthened simultaneously, increasing the cost of holding gold assets.
3. Policy uncertainty lays the groundwork
Trump's surprise visit to the Federal Reserve: the first official visit by a president in nearly 20 years, pressuring interest rate cuts to raise concerns about policy independence;
Cautious sentiment before the Fed's decision: the market entered a "wait-and-see mode", waiting for the July 30 interest rate decision to guide the direction.
3. Technical Pattern and Key Positions
Narrowing of the shock range: The daily line is suppressed by the moving average band (3340-3390),
Weak signal of the hourly chart: The rebound last night failed to break through 3380, indicating that the bullish momentum is insufficient;
Core price level:
Resistance: 3380 (the boundary between the strength and weakness of the Asian and European sessions), 3390 (the short-selling defense line)
Support: 3350 (yesterday's low point), 3340 (trend lifeline)
Structural evolution: If 3350 is broken again during the day, it will confirm the extension of the downward wave and open up the 3324 space.
IV. Trading strategy and risk control
Intraday operation logic
Conservative strategy: Reduce trading frequency, focus on the breakthrough direction of 3340-3350 range;
Aggressive strategy:
▶ Short opportunity: 3352-3363 light position short, stop loss above 3370, target 3340 (hold after breakout)
▶ Long defense: Short near 3340 is limited to fast entry and exit, stop loss 3335, target 3355
Trade carefully and control risks! I wish you a smooth transaction!
❤️I am a trading researcher focusing on the gold field.
❤️If you are looking for direction, welcome to follow me.
👉t.me/+CW0VWaiEB59hMmJh
❤️If you are looking for direction, welcome to follow me.
👉t.me/+CW0VWaiEB59hMmJh
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️I am a trading researcher focusing on the gold field.
❤️If you are looking for direction, welcome to follow me.
👉t.me/+CW0VWaiEB59hMmJh
❤️If you are looking for direction, welcome to follow me.
👉t.me/+CW0VWaiEB59hMmJh
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.