Gold Weekly Review: Risk aversion pushes gold prices to a new high this year, and technical correction pressure emerges (May 5-May 10)
Market Trend Overview
This week, the international gold market showed a typical "high and fall" trend. Driven by multiple positive factors, the spot gold price broke through the 3,400 US dollar integer mark, reaching a high of 3,438 US dollars per ounce, a new high since 2024. Although the weekly line finally closed up 3.1%, technical selling pressure narrowed the increase, closing at 3,303.70 US dollars per ounce on Friday, down nearly 4% from the mid-week high. It is worth noting that the cumulative increase this year has reached 27%, and the gold bull market pattern has been further confirmed.
Analysis of driving factors
1. Geopolitical risks have erupted
Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, and the two sides have launched a fierce battle in the Kharkiv region
India and Pakistan have a military standoff near the Line of Control in Kashmir
The situation in the Middle East has become tense again, and related military operations are continuing
2. Trade policy uncertainty has increased
Major economies have announced additional tariffs on some goods
Several regions are considering retroactive tariffs on imported goods
The evaluation of important trade agreements has been restarted
3. Changes in monetary policy expectations
Market concerns about inflation prospects continue to rise
Expectations for interest rate cuts by major central banks fluctuate significantly
The US index fell 0.3% this week, increasing the attractiveness of gold
Technical analysis
Daily level:
The Bollinger Bands show a bell-shaped expansion and then narrowing pattern, and the upper track of $3438 constitutes a strong resistance
MACD shows a top divergence signal, and DIFF and DEA form a dead cross above the 0 axis
RSI falls from the overbought area to a neutral level of 55.86
Key price levels:
Support level: $3290 (10-day moving average), $3190 (lower Bollinger Band)
Resistance level: $3380 (previous high), $3438 (high point of the year)
Position data:
The net long position of gold futures speculation has decreased significantly
The holdings of major gold ETFs have shown a moderate growth
Market view summary
Bullish view:
Changes in the global trade pattern will affect asset allocation strategies in the long term, and the value of gold as a safe-haven asset will continue to be recognized by the market
Cautious view:
The current gold price has already factored in a lot of risk premium. If the monetary policy maintains a tight stance, it may face a significant technical correction.
Neutral stance:
Seasonal factors may bring short-term pressure, but structural demand may provide support, and it is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern.
Investment advice
Short-term traders may consider operating in the key support and resistance range
Medium- and long-term investors are advised to adopt a batch-based position building strategy
Market Trend Overview
This week, the international gold market showed a typical "high and fall" trend. Driven by multiple positive factors, the spot gold price broke through the 3,400 US dollar integer mark, reaching a high of 3,438 US dollars per ounce, a new high since 2024. Although the weekly line finally closed up 3.1%, technical selling pressure narrowed the increase, closing at 3,303.70 US dollars per ounce on Friday, down nearly 4% from the mid-week high. It is worth noting that the cumulative increase this year has reached 27%, and the gold bull market pattern has been further confirmed.
Analysis of driving factors
1. Geopolitical risks have erupted
Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, and the two sides have launched a fierce battle in the Kharkiv region
India and Pakistan have a military standoff near the Line of Control in Kashmir
The situation in the Middle East has become tense again, and related military operations are continuing
2. Trade policy uncertainty has increased
Major economies have announced additional tariffs on some goods
Several regions are considering retroactive tariffs on imported goods
The evaluation of important trade agreements has been restarted
3. Changes in monetary policy expectations
Market concerns about inflation prospects continue to rise
Expectations for interest rate cuts by major central banks fluctuate significantly
The US index fell 0.3% this week, increasing the attractiveness of gold
Technical analysis
Daily level:
The Bollinger Bands show a bell-shaped expansion and then narrowing pattern, and the upper track of $3438 constitutes a strong resistance
MACD shows a top divergence signal, and DIFF and DEA form a dead cross above the 0 axis
RSI falls from the overbought area to a neutral level of 55.86
Key price levels:
Support level: $3290 (10-day moving average), $3190 (lower Bollinger Band)
Resistance level: $3380 (previous high), $3438 (high point of the year)
Position data:
The net long position of gold futures speculation has decreased significantly
The holdings of major gold ETFs have shown a moderate growth
Market view summary
Bullish view:
Changes in the global trade pattern will affect asset allocation strategies in the long term, and the value of gold as a safe-haven asset will continue to be recognized by the market
Cautious view:
The current gold price has already factored in a lot of risk premium. If the monetary policy maintains a tight stance, it may face a significant technical correction.
Neutral stance:
Seasonal factors may bring short-term pressure, but structural demand may provide support, and it is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern.
Investment advice
Short-term traders may consider operating in the key support and resistance range
Medium- and long-term investors are advised to adopt a batch-based position building strategy
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.