Long

Gold - The man with the golden bar

By chartwatchers

Updated

At the end of August I was starting to call the top of the previous intermediate cycle at in 3 ideas:

I was waiting for the tag of the 200SMA on the daily chart. My minimum target for the decline was the 50% FIBO retracement at 1763$:

I was waiting for a more severe panic selling, but we need to trade what we got.
The intermediate cycle lasted for 184 trading days: it was extremely long.
TSI reched extreme levels : it was close to the 2018 brutal ICL lows:

We had the classic RSI zigzag what I like to see at ICLs:

MACD crossed over giving a late buy signal yesterday. The slow stochastic gave the buy signal 3 days ago:

These indicator signals in a 184 days long intermediate cycle are the final confirmation the daily cycle and the intermediate cycle bottomed on the 30th November.

On Thursday we backtested the level where the panic selling started (1850$):

I suggest to buy gold on Monday because probably we will have to drop a few dollars more - maybe a backtest of 1815$:

It will look like that we are turning down from 1850 to new lows : retail will sell and the banks will trap them as they close their shorts and turn price up above 1850$.
I have seen this trick many times in the last 10 years.

I will be watching the 10 EMA and I'M waiting for this daily candle on Monday:

I don't think we will be closing below the 10 EMA on the daily chart for a long time from now.

My call is we are going to test 2076 before December 31.

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Don’t lose sight of the bigger picture:

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Here is the backtest I mentioned yesterday.

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This is the time when those who couldn’t buy at 1763 need to pull the trigger and enter.
This is a bank created entry before we start to rally .

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Prediction:

Reality:

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Silver is already at the trendline. The grey metal is very strong. It will test the all time highs in a few months.

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The backtest broken above the 1848 level.

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Price will try to backtest 1850.
If you are still on the sidelines this is probably One more opportunity to buy.

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And here is the back test

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Yesterday we regained the 10 EMA and today we are tagging the 50 SMA when we break the 50 SMA - And close above it - Smartmoney will start buying seriously.

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Silver broke the trend line today.

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So we are above the 50 SMA on this Thursday morning. if weclose here the party is ON.

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Now comes the most horrible days And weeks of the novice trader. You will have to sit and wait and see how your account grows. Very few people is able to do that. At the beginning of A bull market many many people are in the right direction and long.
It’s not a big deal to catch the bottom or enter close to the bottom. The big deal is to Catch a Multi week rally. So if you are long you don’t have to do anything just wait. Simple but in real time this will be very hard. :)

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This is what I’m watching today:

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Two days ago price tagged the 100 SMA and it droped immediately after that but every decline in the last three days was stopped by the 50 SMA. Buyers are stepping in at the 50 SMA just as I expected it’s just a matter of time when we break the 100 SMA and the trend line.

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Gold is back above the 50 SMA (blue) and heading to the 100 SMA (purple) + the trendline...

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Testing the 100SMA again . This time we are going to break throgh and test the trend line at 1910.

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Many will try to sell at 1910 . Their stops , margin calls and the bulls price chasing will be the fuel for breaking the trendline at the beginning of 2021.

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So we are testing the trendline immediately at the open:

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And we are above the 100 SMA

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Clear trend line break.

chartwatchers

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