Long

12 MONTH BASIS WITH SUPER-DETAILING #5, 3110 FRIDAY, 3130 SUNDAY

This continues directly from #4. We are at max stall for bulls, something has to break and odds heavily favor a bullish move to 3110 in less than 24 hours, with 3130 extension Sunday night.
This is the 22-min bar chart that best describe trend action of this move.

In chart above, there are some details I want to talk about soon, but the main points are:
- as long as bold arrow holds, yellow route is base case, default case, and ONLY CASE
- if price moves above the "x" between red and black arrow, it's on like Donkey Kong!!!
- gray hi-light is what would happen if bears some how break under blue arrow
- AND HOLD IT FOR 2-4 HOURS
- I do not take it seriously because if yellow fail... IF IF IF
- there's several more stair case scenarios way before we get to gray move to 3005
- it's just there to illustrate max pain if bears get ferocious

Note

Note

2:32 PM 3044... the big piece of cheese is how fast we get to 3240-3270

1) obviously by 4/11
2) but if yellow route holds to sunday night
3) then base case is 3245 by end of Friday 3/28

Note

10:55 AM ET 3014.XX, loaded up at 3005

1) the break of black line last night lead to staircase formation
2) under red and blue lines we hit max pain after bears pushed under 3005
3) replay chart above and bears got to the box a few hours late
4) as I said in post #4 you back up the truck here

Note

5) what I know now: the date range for 3240-3270 is still 3/28 to 4/11
6)I said in the last couple days that the best we could hope for as an intermediate and long term entry is 3000-3005

Note

7) that's where we are now
8) with high for this rally by July
9) and target 3970+/-150

Note

10) unlevered return is 27-37%

Note

3/21, I figured out a lot today, but a summary here:

1) I haven't worked on the immediate picture because the price action today..
2) have solved the rest of the year
3) it has pushed the 4/11 date into May
4) as a result, pushing it to 3320 give or take
5) this stalling in March has capped the ceiling under 3800
6) as a result we are going to 2222 again
7) so high low for July 2025 and January 2026 are dead set on 3777 and 2222
8) with TWO SEPARATE 1000 POINT RETRACES
9) meaning the first drops from high to 2770
10) followed by bounce to 3225 and drop to 2222
11) that's what today's price action has revealed

Note

8:26 PM in chart above, I've arrived at this conclusion once before ...

1) in a chart posted Feb 26 in the 3666-2166 post
2) there is a very similar chart
3) but I did not have the evidence I have today
4) why?
5) because up until today, the route kept expanding to 38xx, 39xx, 40xx, 41xx
6) and the price action today has forced sideways to 04/02 like this:

Note

7) so next up is new all time high around 3075+, but unlikely to break 3080
8) this will set a semi-perfect double top pattern and force a new low under 3000
9) the problem for bears is hard floor is now 2990
10) but bears do manage to cap the 4/11 high at 3190
11) and this cause price to rise with a decreasing slope after 4/11
12) meaning a slower rise, for about another month
13) which leads to 3315-ish mid may
14) and this will complete by reversing almost the entirety of the move since 3075

Note

15) long story short this leaves price in a weak blow off top formation
16) which is very unlikely to break 3810 in any scenario
17) after which the finish will be very similar to this chart from February 26:

Note

3/22 Saturday, 7:30 PM, so here's detailed 60 day draft:

12 MONTH BASIS WITH SUPER DETAILING #6, 60-DAY TREND

Binary_Forecasting_Service

Starting 03/29/25, I forecast gold for "12 Month Basis with Super Detailing" group at: t.me/+grdj3JMbOa5kOTAx

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