📊 XAU/USD – Pro Technical Breakdown
Date: July 9, 2025
Current Price: $3,312.11
Bias: Bearish Continuation
Timeframe Assumed: H1/H4
🔍 1. Market Structure Analysis
Trend: The structure shows a clear lower high – lower low sequence, confirming a short-term downtrend.
Current Move: The recent upward movement appears to be a corrective retracement within a broader bearish leg.
Context: This retracement is approaching a supply zone, likely to induce seller interest.
🔲 2. Liquidity & Order Flow Zones
🔻 Bearish Liquidity Pool 💰 Demand Zone Below
$3,318–$3,325 → Stop hunts / shorts re-enter $3,250–$3,260 → Take-profit / buy reaction likely
Above $3,320: Stop-loss clusters from previous shorts — prime area for fake breakout/liquidity grab.
Below $3,280: Thin liquidity zone — expect sharp move if price breaks cleanly.
$3,250: Key demand; high-probability bounce zone if trend exhausts.
🧠 3. Smart Money Perspective
Institutional players might:
Push price up to sweep liquidity around $3,320–$3,325, creating false hope of a bullish reversal.
Trigger sell-side imbalance after the sweep, targeting imbalanced zones left behind (Fair Value Gap).
Dump price aggressively, especially if aligned with fundamental catalysts (e.g., USD strength, Fed minutes, etc.).
🔔 4. Trade Scenario Setup
🟥 Bearish Play (Smart Money Style)
Type: Liquidity Sweep Reversal
Setup: Fade the fakeout at supply
Entry Zone: $3,318–$3,325 (wait for rejection or bearish engulfing)
Confirmation: Bearish PA on smaller timeframe + break of minor low (e.g., 5M/15M)
Stop Loss: Above $3,330 (beyond liquidity sweep zone)
Take Profit 1: $3,280 (conservative)
Take Profit 2: $3,250 (volume imbalance fill)
Take Profit 3: $3,200 (if bearish momentum accelerates)
🟩 Invalidation:
Break and daily close above $3,330 with volume — turns bias to neutral/bullish.
📌 Final Word – Pro Tip
This setup reflects a classic distribution and internal liquidity run seen before a trend continuation. The market is likely engineering a false sense of bullish reversal to fuel a deeper leg down. Trade with patience, precision, and tight risk management.
Date: July 9, 2025
Current Price: $3,312.11
Bias: Bearish Continuation
Timeframe Assumed: H1/H4
🔍 1. Market Structure Analysis
Trend: The structure shows a clear lower high – lower low sequence, confirming a short-term downtrend.
Current Move: The recent upward movement appears to be a corrective retracement within a broader bearish leg.
Context: This retracement is approaching a supply zone, likely to induce seller interest.
🔲 2. Liquidity & Order Flow Zones
🔻 Bearish Liquidity Pool 💰 Demand Zone Below
$3,318–$3,325 → Stop hunts / shorts re-enter $3,250–$3,260 → Take-profit / buy reaction likely
Above $3,320: Stop-loss clusters from previous shorts — prime area for fake breakout/liquidity grab.
Below $3,280: Thin liquidity zone — expect sharp move if price breaks cleanly.
$3,250: Key demand; high-probability bounce zone if trend exhausts.
🧠 3. Smart Money Perspective
Institutional players might:
Push price up to sweep liquidity around $3,320–$3,325, creating false hope of a bullish reversal.
Trigger sell-side imbalance after the sweep, targeting imbalanced zones left behind (Fair Value Gap).
Dump price aggressively, especially if aligned with fundamental catalysts (e.g., USD strength, Fed minutes, etc.).
🔔 4. Trade Scenario Setup
🟥 Bearish Play (Smart Money Style)
Type: Liquidity Sweep Reversal
Setup: Fade the fakeout at supply
Entry Zone: $3,318–$3,325 (wait for rejection or bearish engulfing)
Confirmation: Bearish PA on smaller timeframe + break of minor low (e.g., 5M/15M)
Stop Loss: Above $3,330 (beyond liquidity sweep zone)
Take Profit 1: $3,280 (conservative)
Take Profit 2: $3,250 (volume imbalance fill)
Take Profit 3: $3,200 (if bearish momentum accelerates)
🟩 Invalidation:
Break and daily close above $3,330 with volume — turns bias to neutral/bullish.
📌 Final Word – Pro Tip
This setup reflects a classic distribution and internal liquidity run seen before a trend continuation. The market is likely engineering a false sense of bullish reversal to fuel a deeper leg down. Trade with patience, precision, and tight risk management.
Forex Market Analyst | XAU/USD Specialist
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Forex Market Analyst | XAU/USD Specialist
. VIP Signal Channel for Premium Insights
. Comprehensive Forex Mentorship Program
. Affiliate Program for growth-driven partners
Join Our Telegram t.me/Goldsignalspro12
. VIP Signal Channel for Premium Insights
. Comprehensive Forex Mentorship Program
. Affiliate Program for growth-driven partners
Join Our Telegram t.me/Goldsignalspro12
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.