1. Market Structure Analysis**
- **Break of Structure (BOS)**: Multiple BOS points indicate a prior bullish trend, followed by a shift to bearish intent.
- **Change of Character (CHoCH)**: The latest CHoCH (in red) confirms a shift from bullish to bearish momentum.
- **Liquidity Zones**:
- **Premium Zone** (~$2,950): Strong resistance area where price was rejected.
- **Discount Zone** (~$2,880 - $2,890): A potential buy zone where price might find support.
- **Equilibrium (~$2,916)**: The price is currently hovering around equilibrium, meaning a decisive move is yet to happen.
2. Key Levels Identified**
- **Premium Supply Zone ($2,945 - $2,955)**: Strong resistance; price previously rejected from here.
- **Weak Low (~$2,890 - $2,885)**: A liquidity point where sellers may target a sweep.
- **Discount Demand Zone (~$2,880 - $2,890)**: Possible buy area if price taps into liquidity and reverses.
3. Expected Scenarios & Probability**
1. **Bearish Continuation - 65% Probability**
- Reason: Recent CHoCH to the downside, strong rejection from the premium zone, and liquidity below the weak low.
- Target: $2,885 - $2,880 (Discount Zone).
- Confirmation: If price fails to reclaim $2,920 - $2,925.
2. **Bullish Reversal from Discount Zone - 35% Probability**
- Reason: If price taps into the **discount zone** and finds strong demand, a reversal to **equilibrium ($2,916)** or **premium zone ($2,950)** could occur.
- Confirmation: Strong bullish reaction at $2,880 - $2,890 with break above $2,925.
#### **Trading Strategy**
- **Sell Scenario:** Wait for a bearish retest at **$2,920 - $2,925** before entering short.
- SL: Above **$2,935**
- TP1: **$2,900**
- TP2: **$2,885**
- Risk-Reward: **1:3**
- **Buy Scenario:** If price sweeps the **weak low ($2,885)** and shows bullish confirmation.
- SL: Below **$2,875**
- TP1: **$2,916**
- TP2: **$2,930**
- Risk-Reward: **1:4**
Final Thoughts**
- Current sentiment is **bearish**, favoring a **continuation down to $2,885 - $2,880 (65% probability).**
- A bullish reversal may occur from **discount zones (~$2,880)** (35% probability).
- Watch for price reaction near **$2,916 - $2,920** for confirmation before entering any trade.
- **Break of Structure (BOS)**: Multiple BOS points indicate a prior bullish trend, followed by a shift to bearish intent.
- **Change of Character (CHoCH)**: The latest CHoCH (in red) confirms a shift from bullish to bearish momentum.
- **Liquidity Zones**:
- **Premium Zone** (~$2,950): Strong resistance area where price was rejected.
- **Discount Zone** (~$2,880 - $2,890): A potential buy zone where price might find support.
- **Equilibrium (~$2,916)**: The price is currently hovering around equilibrium, meaning a decisive move is yet to happen.
2. Key Levels Identified**
- **Premium Supply Zone ($2,945 - $2,955)**: Strong resistance; price previously rejected from here.
- **Weak Low (~$2,890 - $2,885)**: A liquidity point where sellers may target a sweep.
- **Discount Demand Zone (~$2,880 - $2,890)**: Possible buy area if price taps into liquidity and reverses.
3. Expected Scenarios & Probability**
1. **Bearish Continuation - 65% Probability**
- Reason: Recent CHoCH to the downside, strong rejection from the premium zone, and liquidity below the weak low.
- Target: $2,885 - $2,880 (Discount Zone).
- Confirmation: If price fails to reclaim $2,920 - $2,925.
2. **Bullish Reversal from Discount Zone - 35% Probability**
- Reason: If price taps into the **discount zone** and finds strong demand, a reversal to **equilibrium ($2,916)** or **premium zone ($2,950)** could occur.
- Confirmation: Strong bullish reaction at $2,880 - $2,890 with break above $2,925.
#### **Trading Strategy**
- **Sell Scenario:** Wait for a bearish retest at **$2,920 - $2,925** before entering short.
- SL: Above **$2,935**
- TP1: **$2,900**
- TP2: **$2,885**
- Risk-Reward: **1:3**
- **Buy Scenario:** If price sweeps the **weak low ($2,885)** and shows bullish confirmation.
- SL: Below **$2,875**
- TP1: **$2,916**
- TP2: **$2,930**
- Risk-Reward: **1:4**
Final Thoughts**
- Current sentiment is **bearish**, favoring a **continuation down to $2,885 - $2,880 (65% probability).**
- A bullish reversal may occur from **discount zones (~$2,880)** (35% probability).
- Watch for price reaction near **$2,916 - $2,920** for confirmation before entering any trade.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.