GOLD end of 2019|DEC RATE CUT|TRADE WAR|ECON FUNDAMENTALS
Updated
Keeping it short but precise, few fundamental bullet points on factors that will affect gold until the end of 2019:
1. Once US/China deal gets finalized, Gold should have a bearish consolidation to 1410, eventually to 1360 by the start of 2020.
2. GOLD is currently in a horizontal range due to two factors: Global monetary policy dovishness continues for October(bullish), but at the same time higher likelihood of a good US/China deal outcome(bullish), and then there's Brexit.
3. On the point of monetary policy; OCT 31st meeting already priced in, everyone is focusing now on Dec 11th FOMC(Ref#1). The issue for the Dec 11th FOMC, is that it will depend massively on the US/China deal outcome, that'll be decided sometime mid November.
4. Expecting yields on the US 10Y to recover if a deal goes through. Yields in a range, above the critical 1.5% support, and
at the moment are looking for a breakout. Of course, this would have a very bearish effect on gold.
![10Y US TREASURY NOTE|PREMIUM[LONG-TERM]YIELD ANALYSIS|PART 2/2"](https://s3.tradingview.com/k/kH1DVEC1_mid.png)
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On the technical side, you can see the developments on the chart. On the daily looks very indecisive, but leaning bearish.
In fact, I think that after the FED rate cut next week, on Friday the 1st of November there should be a sell-off in gold. Earnings season is going okay-ish well, and by the end of it we should know how it will affect gold. Have to reiterate that Trump has to get a deal done with China; that'll basically guarantee him another mandate from 2020. This is the main factor, that makes me bearish on gold for now.
This is it for Gold, it was just a short, but precise update.
-Step_ahead_ofthemarket-
>>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>>
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References and disclosure:
1. cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Full Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content for private or corporate purposes- contact me through any of my social media channels.
This short update is just a continuation from a previous chart on gold:
1. Once US/China deal gets finalized, Gold should have a bearish consolidation to 1410, eventually to 1360 by the start of 2020.
2. GOLD is currently in a horizontal range due to two factors: Global monetary policy dovishness continues for October(bullish), but at the same time higher likelihood of a good US/China deal outcome(bullish), and then there's Brexit.
3. On the point of monetary policy; OCT 31st meeting already priced in, everyone is focusing now on Dec 11th FOMC(Ref#1). The issue for the Dec 11th FOMC, is that it will depend massively on the US/China deal outcome, that'll be decided sometime mid November.
4. Expecting yields on the US 10Y to recover if a deal goes through. Yields in a range, above the critical 1.5% support, and
at the moment are looking for a breakout. Of course, this would have a very bearish effect on gold.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
On the technical side, you can see the developments on the chart. On the daily looks very indecisive, but leaning bearish.
In fact, I think that after the FED rate cut next week, on Friday the 1st of November there should be a sell-off in gold. Earnings season is going okay-ish well, and by the end of it we should know how it will affect gold. Have to reiterate that Trump has to get a deal done with China; that'll basically guarantee him another mandate from 2020. This is the main factor, that makes me bearish on gold for now.
This is it for Gold, it was just a short, but precise update.
-Step_ahead_ofthemarket-
>>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>>
However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated!
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
References and disclosure:
1. cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Full Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content for private or corporate purposes- contact me through any of my social media channels.
This short update is just a continuation from a previous chart on gold:
Note
Long-term pitchfork on gold.
Note
XAUUSD + XAUEUR. Still has some space to go on the EUR chart, closing above 1350 on the daily, could me a retest of the 50 daily MA. The gold/dollar chart looking for a breakout, confirmation above 1505.
Note
DXY could be bouncing of the bottom support. If gold closes above 1505 for the week, it could be a breakout confirmation going into the FOMC next week.
-Step_ahead_ofthermarket-
Note
Weekly MACD divergence in gold, typical for wave V's. MACD on the weekly hasn't been this high since 2016 and prior to that 2011. Atm bouncing of the weekly RSI trend line.
Note
Newest update, based on the data so far this week and J.Powell's Q&A session.
Note
Last weeks data and the bounce after the FOMC really turned me neutral on gold. Just really can't give any recommendations, since gold trading in the next couple of months will be solely based on trade news.
Best of luck -step_ahead_ofthemarket-
Note
Apparently US and China have agreed to lift up tariffs. Very bearish signal for gold. Seems that the US is kneeling down to China. Let's see if a deal actually goes through.
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