**1. Market Structure Analysis**
- **Break of Structure (BOS):** The market remains in a clear **downtrend**, confirming bearish sentiment.
- **Change of Character (CHoCH):** Any bullish CHoCHs have been short-lived, failing to break major bearish structure.
- **Liquidity Zones:**
- **Premium Zone (~$2,920 - $2,930):** Acts as strong resistance where price consistently rejects.
- **Discount Zone (~$2,845 - $2,855):** A potential support area where price might react.
- **Equilibrium (~$2,892):** Price remains well below equilibrium, favoring bearish momentum.
*2. Key Observations**
- **Lower High (LH) and Lower Low (LL) Structure:** Price continues making **lower highs and lower lows**, a sign of a healthy downtrend.
- **Weak Low (~$2,853):** A liquidity target for sellers.
- **Potential Reversal Zone (~$2,845 - $2,850):** If price taps this level, it may see a short-term bounce.
*3. Expected Scenarios & Probability**
1. **Bearish Continuation – 70% Probability**
- **Reason:** Strong BOS, price is in a bearish structure, and liquidity exists below weak lows.
- **Target:** $2,845 - $2,837.
- **Confirmation:** A **break and close below $2,853**.
2. **Bullish Retracement – 30% Probability**
- **Reason:** A possible reaction from the **discount zone** ($2,845 - $2,850).
- **Target:** $2,876 - $2,884 (previous PWL).
- **Confirmation:** Strong bullish rejection from **$2,845 - $2,850**.
**4. Trading Plan**
- **Sell Setup:** If price breaks **$2,853** decisively.
- **Entry:** Below $2,853.
- **SL:** Above $2,868.
- **TP1:** $2,845.
- **TP2:** $2,837.
- **Risk-Reward:** 1:3.
- **Buy Setup:** If price holds **$2,845 - $2,850** and reverses.
- **Entry:** Around $2,850.
- **SL:** Below $2,840.
- **TP1:** $2,868.
- **TP2:** $2,876.
- **Risk-Reward:** 1:4.
**Final Thoughts**
- **Probability of bearish continuation:** **70%** (favoring further downside to $2,845 - $2,837).
- **Probability of bullish retracement:** **30%** (bounce to $2,876 possible if discount zone holds).
- **Best trade:** **Wait for confirmation** at the **$2,845 - $2,850** level before making a move.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.