Macro approach:
- Gold traded defensively this week, consolidating above the $3,300 level amid shifting risk sentiment and anticipation of significant trade policy developments. The yellow metal's performance was pressured by a firmer US dollar and easing geopolitical tensions, as optimism around potential trade deals and tariff suspensions reduced safe-haven demand.
- Market drivers included resilient US economic data, the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts, and ongoing trade negotiations. The 9 Jul deadline for suspended US tariffs and President Trump's threats of new levies on BRICS countries kept investors on edge, while the release of FOMC minutes and strong NFP further dampened expectations for imminent Fed easing. Despite these headwinds, underlying concerns over US fiscal deficits and global policy uncertainty supported Gold's longer-term appeal.
- Gold may remain volatile as markets await clarity on US trade policy and the 15 July US CPI release. Both could influence Fed rate expectations and risk appetite. Any escalation in trade tensions or disappointing economic data could revive safe-haven flows into Gold.
Technical approach:
- XAUUSD consolidated within a tight range of 3285-3560, just lightly above the ascending channel's lower bound. The price is at EMA21, indicating that a bullish momentum is still intact. The market is waiting for an apparent breakout to determine the trend.
- If XAUUSD breaks above 3560, the price may retest the following resistance at 3430.
- On the contrary, closing below support at 3285 may allow Gold to retest the following support at 3165.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
- Gold traded defensively this week, consolidating above the $3,300 level amid shifting risk sentiment and anticipation of significant trade policy developments. The yellow metal's performance was pressured by a firmer US dollar and easing geopolitical tensions, as optimism around potential trade deals and tariff suspensions reduced safe-haven demand.
- Market drivers included resilient US economic data, the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts, and ongoing trade negotiations. The 9 Jul deadline for suspended US tariffs and President Trump's threats of new levies on BRICS countries kept investors on edge, while the release of FOMC minutes and strong NFP further dampened expectations for imminent Fed easing. Despite these headwinds, underlying concerns over US fiscal deficits and global policy uncertainty supported Gold's longer-term appeal.
- Gold may remain volatile as markets await clarity on US trade policy and the 15 July US CPI release. Both could influence Fed rate expectations and risk appetite. Any escalation in trade tensions or disappointing economic data could revive safe-haven flows into Gold.
Technical approach:
- XAUUSD consolidated within a tight range of 3285-3560, just lightly above the ascending channel's lower bound. The price is at EMA21, indicating that a bullish momentum is still intact. The market is waiting for an apparent breakout to determine the trend.
- If XAUUSD breaks above 3560, the price may retest the following resistance at 3430.
- On the contrary, closing below support at 3285 may allow Gold to retest the following support at 3165.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Note
3360 instead of 3560, sorry for the typo. 
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.