XAUUSD Monthly Outlook โ€“ May 2025

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๐Ÿ‘‹ Hey GoldMindsFX!

๐Ÿ•ฐ๏ธ Timeframe: Monthly
๐Ÿ“ Current Price: 3,204
๐Ÿ“ˆ Bias: Cautious Bullish-to-Neutral
๐Ÿ“ Trend: Strong long-term bullish, but in monthly exhaustion/cool-off mode

๐Ÿ” STRUCTURAL OVERVIEW
BOS (Break of Structure): Confirmed above 2,075 (2020/2022 key resistance).

Rally: Sustained higher highs and strong bullish candles since October 2023.

Current Candle: Huge wick into FIB extension (1.618โ€“2.0) = 3,440โ€“3,500 (top-out risk).

๐Ÿง  KEY MONTHLY LEVELS TO WATCH
Type/Zone Price Range Quick Note
๐Ÿ”ด Premium Supply 3,440โ€“3,500 FIB extension (1.618โ€“2.0), big rejection wick, bull exhaustion
๐ŸŸ  Resistance 3,222โ€“3,242 Prior OB + last BOS area, possible retest zone
โš ๏ธ Mid-Zone 3,160โ€“3,185 Equilibrium, liquidity trap, key short-term support
๐ŸŸข Demand 3,050โ€“2,960 Big monthly OB + FVG, unmitigated base, strong support
๐Ÿ”ต Discount 2,950โ€“2,800 Previous reaccumulation, structure demand from 2023 rallies

๐Ÿ—บ๏ธ MACRO & MARKET CONTEXT
Geopolitical Tension: Wars, inflation, and Fed confusion (CPI/UoM).

Market Mood: Sentiment weak, uncertainty high after May FOMC & Powell.

Central Bank Flow: Dips bought, but profit-taking near highs โ€” โ€œwait and reactโ€ mode.

๐Ÿงญ SCENARIOS FOR MAY
Bullish Plan: If price holds above 3,160โ€“3,185 โž” look for re-entry toward 3,240 and possible retest of upper wicks (3,440+).

Needs H4 CHoCH + volume for confirmation.

Bearish Plan: Lose 3,160 โž” look for a drop toward 3,050โ€“2,960. If that fails, watch for deeper retrace to 2,800โ€“2,950.

โš™๏ธ FIBONACCI EXTENSION SUMMARY
1.272: โœ… Hit

1.618: 3,440 (Tapped)

2.0: 3,500 (Wick/Exhaustion)

๐Ÿง  FINAL WORD
Goldโ€™s monthly โ€œmoonshotโ€ stalled at 3,500 โ€” donโ€™t chase, just watch how price reacts to the 3,160โ€“3,185 key range.
Lose it? Expect deeper cool-off.
Hold it? Reload for one more push toward the highs.

Stay focused, trade smart, and let structure guide your next moves!
Drop a comment if you want the weekly/daily breakdowns.
โ€” GoldFxMinds (GoldMindsFX)

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