Long

2725 vs 3965 AND BY EXTENSION 7250+

Bulls are favored as long as prices remain above 3320 ahead of FOMC. However, since U.S. aftermarket close, bears have dropped price $50 already but they still need $65 more. It's FOMC tomorrow at 19 hours out from publishing this post and chart above is the binary outcome. Bulls' route to 3760-3850-3965 have only appeared in the last 18 hours, but have strong implications that February 2026 will see $7250 gold prices, or higher. This continues directly from previous post.

However, I am running out of time.

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7:13 PM ET, THIS IS MY LAST POST
1) I will only add should I have time
2) so be aware
3) tonight, we are watching to see what Tokyo will do with this setup
4) bulls need to keep it above 3338 to be strongly favored
5) bears need 3240s again to prevent the double blow off

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10:53 PM ET 5/7 ... WHAT THIS WORLD IS COMING TO??
1) I can't make sense of the geopolitics
2) I can't grasp all the knock on effects
3) but I can tell you we are moving for 3850-4000 in 20 days or less
4) and that would set us up for 7500-8000
5) next February

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5/8, 10:13 AM... here's a break down of all scenarios starting
1) base case should be mid June 3965 high
2) followed by correction
3) followed by June 2026 7450 high

4) but the LOW RANGE is still 2790 floor until it's eliminated
5) the odds of this 2790 followed by 5300 high
6) are insignificant but worth pointing

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7) out

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8) only bc of the delayed check to 3320 overnight
9) but what ever odds bears have before FOMC
10) are much lower now

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5.11 SUN night and under 3300 with several lines of bad news for gold...
1) India pakistan agree to peace deal negotiations
2) zelensky agree to meet putting
3) China agrees to substantial progress of trade talks in Geneva
4) Trump reveals that he has several many cards to play etc...
5) silver doing exactly nothing
6) so it looks like gold is deciding between a 6600 and a 7400 high next year,
7) but the short term is getting very convoluted
8) this coming week will reveal a lot

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5/13, 11:17 AM ET, so here's what can be said...
1) gold absolutely favors 7150 OR HIGHER AS NEXT MAJOR HIGH
2) that is counting 3500 as a "major high"
3) we also know that the WEAK WINDOW LEFT IS NOW TO JULY 15th
4) and price does not have to "consume the entire window...
5) especially after June 25th...
6) so basically with today is 5/13, we have about 40-60 days of weak trend left in both gold and silver
7) with gold seemingly weaker

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8) I titled this post, at top, 2790 vs 3965 with extension to 7250
9) what I am basically seeing is 2790 can get hit or even worse
10) but price still end up at 7150 next June

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1) in chart above, after 2850(2565 extension)...
2) it would be 3700s in October again
3) and 4700-5100 in February
4) and 7000+ in June

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7:41 AM 05-14, 3230's and in chart above..
1) the next 12 hours decides whether it is BLUE OR
2) GRAY-YELLOW (both basically the same route with varied 2 way vol) OR
3) ORANGE-RED (actually the same but needs refining
4) gray-yellow to 3050ish is favored

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5) continuing in chart above, I marked the four levels that need to be watched
6) on our way to that next bounce
7) in theory, the bounce should come between 3020 and 3040
8) however, the target is 2960 and not "that far down"
9) that being said, IT IS STILL AN OUTLIER TO GO STRAIGHT TO 2960
10) so base case would be bounce between 3020-3040 about 140-ish
11) BEFORE moving for 2960
12) meanwhile in silver...

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13) in last post...
14) I wrote that silver "needed to go to 26 in May"
15) but that was not a "call"
16) I just thought that I would make everything fit well together
17) regardless, the Fed have rates at 4.5% while inflation coming in at 2%
18) so rates are a real 2%+
19) do we have liquidity crisis yet?
20) especially with Europe pulling out that "trillion dollar" FDI meant for the United States
21) too many questions
22) that can only be cleared up once we see 2960

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23) so a 9:12 AM ET, we are at a critical level so to speak
24) if 3200 does not hold the bounce here, then all expectations change

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25) that 3025 level should just be 3050 flat

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26) so this means that Friday floor is 3140
27) this results in "the long way to 2960"
28) and ONLY IF 3125 breaks late May or
29) very early in June

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7:28 AM, 5-16, here is what it looked like 5 hours ago:

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1) in chart above, price is saying that 3140 holds but the first bounce ...
2) will get sold to 3095 on Monday ahead of the third top
3) this looks a bit suspicious

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4) I want clarity on when 3095 gets hit
5) to call a third top
6) instead of a slower route to 3095..
7) follpwed by hard bounce but
8) resolve by a a crush to 3025
9) ultimately... the question is still
10) when to we hit 2960
11) because the 7125 target stays put
12) and the only retrace that happens
13) in 19 out of 20 scenarios
14) is 2960

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15) counter intuitively...
16) if 2960 holds ahead of 7125 rally
17) that really means 7125 should come by February
18) that also 7125 is an ultimate high
19) for YEARS..

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20) in the 20th scenario, we make new high and retrace to to 30xx or 31xx
21) meaning we never hit 2960
22) and that would mean 7125 COMES IN DECEMBER

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4) continuing in chart above, this would make 3rd top
5) and for the record, if you scroll up about 7-8 charts
6) I discussed this route as, "THE CRAZIEST PATTERN IS THIS"...
7) because we don't have 3 descending tops
8) we have triple crown with low top in the middle

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So for Sunday night into Monday NY close:
1) bulls really need 3275 by London open
2) circa 3 AM ET NY time
3) if they don't do this they have 2 more 6 hour cycles
4) to form less impressive 3rd top formations
5) but since they own the spike setup as well as long term
6) for every failure to break up is a guarantee of 2555 getting hit in June
7) especially of bears open Sunday night with a move straight to 3125 again

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8) do the first 10 hours after open are super critical for both sides
9) my call is 2555 in June until this changes

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9:51 PM ET, 3221 AFTER STALLING AT 3249.XX
1) as of RIGHT THIS SECOND bulls still own the short term setup
2) so if they don't hit 3275 in 5 hours, that's a problem
3) the move that is not obvious to see is 100 straight down from here
4) to 3125 again
5) and if they surrender this setup for 3460
6) it's really hard to see 2960 get defended a third time...
7) counting April as the first time

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8) and late May the second time

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9) long story short there's 2 moves I can see
10) it's either +55 to 3275 or
11) -95 to 3125
12) in next 5 hours

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13) sideways stall result is tough to call
14) but would buy bulls 12 extra hours to find a way to 3460

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10) continuing in chart above, the "implied blue route" is:

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11) so in chart above, my read is that bulls do not have enough to make it this time
12) yesterday, I said that the first 10 hours were super important for both sides
13) that means until 3 AM ET, and if bulls do not make it to 3275 AND PRICE STALLS
14) bulls would buy TWO MORE 6 HOUR CYCLES or ...
15) to 9 AM ET and then 3 PM ET, we have already finished the first one
16) and it's 10:14 AM ET as I type
17) so technically, bulls have 5 more hours to attempt this break of the black dashed line
18) so be aware of that
19) but I also said yesterday that with each failure of this break out (which means move to 3470 now)
20) this means 2555 in June... and why?
21) it is simply a "reinforcing this dashed line down as the total resistance
22) because bulls "basically" have a perfect setup for 3470 now
23) not moving here would simply mean there's no more demand
24) and the only way is down

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25) and that move would start with 3060 before Thursday
26) in other words, by Wed night or Tokyo session

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8:30 AM ET 3242.XX AND HEADING FOR 3275-3290

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1) and by extension 3460
2) last 5.5 hours saw bulls took basically perfect setup to perfect
3) which does 3 things
4) one, break that dashed line
5) two, reverse a perfect bear setup
6) three, RAISE THE 3460 ceiling

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6) in chart above, I don't know what happens here with the trends that form the bear route
7) because they have to get resolved
8) there two ways to resolve them
9) the first is completely vertical up

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10) but I cannot "call that", you can only follow it on 1 to 4-min bars
11) because it's a continuously changing situation

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12) 2 thing need to happen to call price action here
13) hitting 3375 and judging first reaction to 3375
14) the rest is entirely unresolved

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15) cannot say when 3375 gets hit
16) can't even say if it will get hit
17) can say if it gets hit, it would be Thursday or Friday, perhaps Monday
18) everything else is convoluted

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8) continuing in chart above, so I close this post and everything else with
9) there are 3 moves left
10) long to 3600
11) short to 3000 (because it could easily be 3650 high)
12) long to 7250
13) the only part left that I see there is wiggle room is that
14) in theory, bulls can't break red line until next week
15) that means that even though 3375 CAN GET HIT this week
16) it would be rejected for retest which is probably 3250
17) before moving up to 3400
18) in this window, if bulls are not strong
19) then bears can push the move down like this, but NOT MUCH:

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20) but let's go over that anyway in case it happens
21) if 3500 is the top in, then THE FLOOR IS 2875 OR HIGHER
22) and should come in June or August more like this:

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23) that's all I got and I am done with paying for the right to write about it
24) the end

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3:11 PM ET, so let's sum this up right now because I am really done writing more about this:

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1) I see silver breaking out as gold moves up
2) along with that, I don't know that this stops at 36xx
3) if I am being honest, I have to say 3820
4) because I misread the October check down
5) I can't see it hitting ANYTHING UNDER 3100
6) so that basically means that it is going to be 38xx with the next floor at 3140+++
7) this also means that whatever high is coming next year, it's going to be above 7500
8) end of this story

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5/22 NO CALL:

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1) in chart above is silvers perfect arc for 15 years
2) and what does it say?
a) this rally will last for a min of 30 more months
b) a maximum of 8 years
c) ball park is 5.5 years or end of year 2030
d) with the final high range from 450 to 1450
e) the likely high under $685
f) meaning the call should be $683 by DEC 2030
g) the problem is the window from here to THIS OCTOBER
h) specifically before 08/09 with max vol
i) about $26.65

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3) no one is debating the ultimate path of precious metals
4) the problem is gold vs silver
5) the 15 year arcs vs gold 45 year trend line
6) I cannot explain why silver did not hit a new high when gold hit 3500

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7) 3 month normal vol says silver can break this arc before September

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8) what does this all mean?
a) before gold and silver head to their ultimate destination
b) there must be a transition period that
c) occurs where silver strength surpasses gold strength
d) and what happens immediately before this
e) is when silver weakness WEAKENS more vs gold
f ) meaning that there must be a correction from here to JANUARY 2026
g) where silver corrects LESS THAN GOLD corrects

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9:57 AM ET that does not solve what happens from here to July because
1) there are two scenarios both legitimate
2) first one is rally to July and correct hard to October
3) meaning one more high 3760 or higher with a silver breakout
4) the second is continue correcting until a bottom in July or August
5) but the technicals do not reveal anything hence the no call
6) what we do know is decision comes next week
7) and I've already discussed what that looks like
8) this is the end of the road for me
9) good luck to you and thanks for reading

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06/03/2025, FOR ALL THE PEOPLE THAT KEPT COMING BACK DESPITE ME NOT UPDATING THIS:

1) first, in notes above at "3) meaning one more high 3760 or higher with a silver breakout" ...
2) that is where we are
3) but to restart this work with a more sustainable approach ...
4) here is my next post before things get really interesting:

GOLD 25000 AND SILVER 700 BY APRIL 7TH, 2032 (2500 DAYS)

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5) chart above is a comparison between gold and silver price action, all-timme
6) I will continue there

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