Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Long
Updated

Gold Holds Steady Amid Trade Tensions and Rate Cut Hopes

207
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Gold edged higher on Tuesday, supported by a weaker dollar and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, despite pressure from rising U.S. Treasury yields. Spot gold rose 0.1% to 2984.16 per ounce by mid-afternoon, while futures settled 0.5% higher at 2990.20.

The 10-year Treasury yield hit a one-week high, dampening gold's appeal. Still, ongoing trade uncertainty and potential U.S. interest rate cuts kept the outlook bullish. A break above 3,055 could open the path to 3130, with stronger resistance near 3272.314, while weakness below 3,000 might push prices down to 2950-2930.

Market anxiety intensified after President Trump’s announcement of a 104% tariff on Chinese goods, fueling safe-haven demand. Gold, up 15% this year, also benefited from a weaker dollar, which makes it cheaper for foreign buyers.

We now await Fed meeting minutes for clues on rate cuts, with a 40% chance priced in for May. Expectations of easing could drive gold prices higher in the near term.


The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1D-1Y timeframes!

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Note
Trump announces a 90-day suspension of tariffs for select countries, while sharply increasing tariffs on China to 125%, effective immediately. Significant market volatility is likely ahead!
Note
The U.S. CPI report for March 2025, set to be released on April 10, is expected to show a slight monthly increase in core inflation (+0.3%) and a slowdown in headline inflation (+0.1% m/m, +2.5% y/y). Despite signs of cooling inflation from recent wage and services data, markets remain on edge due to rising tariff-related price pressures. If the data meets expectations or comes in weaker, the U.S. dollar is likely to weaken, especially against safe-haven currencies like JPY CHF, and XAU, as it would reinforce a dovish Fed outlook. However, any upside inflation surprise could revive concerns about persistent inflation, supporting the dollar—particularly against risk-sensitive currencies like AUD and NZD. Overall, the bias leans toward dollar weakness unless CPI significantly exceeds forecasts.
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