Gold Is Coiling for a Breakout – Will NFP Be the Trigger?

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Hello traders!
I hope you're as excited as I am for my second consecutive day of gold analysis here on TradingView Indonesia!

Gold (XAUUSD) is quietly consolidating in the 3,330 – 3,360 USD zone, gearing up for a potential big move as all eyes turn to tonight’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. Yesterday’s disappointing ADP data – which showed a decline in private-sector jobs for the first time in two years – has heightened expectations that the Fed may soon cut interest rates. This has weighed heavily on the U.S. dollar, while boosting gold due to its appeal as a non-yielding safe haven.

From a technical perspective, gold has broken out of a five-wave Elliott decline and exited its long-term downtrend channel. A bullish structure is clearly taking shape, marked by higher highs and higher lows. Price is currently in a phase of tight consolidation — much like a coiled spring waiting for the right trigger to launch.

If the resistance at 3,358 USD is broken with strong buying pressure, gold could quickly accelerate toward 3,390 and even 3,407 USD, which aligns with the Fibonacci 1.618 extension. On the flip side, the dynamic support zone between 3,327 and 3,318 USD is likely to act as a buffer in the event of a short-term pullback.

Gold is holding its breath ahead of the U.S. jobs data — and when the market speaks, the opportunity will belong to those who are ready.
Are you ready?

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