Introduction - In "DRAFT 0", Binary Forecasting Service verified that 2340 was indeed coming. Originally, trend engine schedule it for Friday 03/15 but I added Monday 03/18 as room for error. However, it seems that I was too careful, because trend engine is now calling for 2340 by 2 AM ET, on Wednesday, 03/13.
Details - I am publishing first and adding details soon. In the meantime, previous posts are linked below for background, and here is the chart-link for DRAFT 0:
If you go to DRAFT 0 and clicked the replay:
a) so we are on track up
b) but the last 24 hours I had a difficult time figuring out if 2200-2210 is top (tomorrow)
c) or 2340 is top (next week)
d) and I asked just rhetorically, "Why can't it be both?"
e) bc if we hit 2211 like trend engine is SCREAMING FOR RIGHT NOW...
f) FRIDAY WILL BE RUGPULL TO 2122
g) that's what the odds say should happen by 10 AM ET FRIDAY
h) then I figured that still was in the confines of the move to 2340 (in 84 trading hours)
I) hence it all came together in chart AT TOP
m) I am busy AF rest of day but..
n) I WILL BE LIVE THE ENTIRE NIGHT AND TOMORROW TO NY CLOSE
Details - I am publishing first and adding details soon. In the meantime, previous posts are linked below for background, and here is the chart-link for DRAFT 0:
If you go to DRAFT 0 and clicked the replay:
a) so we are on track up
b) but the last 24 hours I had a difficult time figuring out if 2200-2210 is top (tomorrow)
c) or 2340 is top (next week)
d) and I asked just rhetorically, "Why can't it be both?"
e) bc if we hit 2211 like trend engine is SCREAMING FOR RIGHT NOW...
f) FRIDAY WILL BE RUGPULL TO 2122
g) that's what the odds say should happen by 10 AM ET FRIDAY
h) then I figured that still was in the confines of the move to 2340 (in 84 trading hours)
I) hence it all came together in chart AT TOP
m) I am busy AF rest of day but..
n) I WILL BE LIVE THE ENTIRE NIGHT AND TOMORROW TO NY CLOSE
Note
03/07, 3:07 PM, I will tell you without reservation, that this is my best work so far if judged by experience, data, creativity, courage, but most all grit. THIS ONE IS SO HARD.a) why?
b) I posted 2150 BY 03/08 DRAFT 1 on 02/21 at 2027
c) that hit yesterday with 2 days to spare
d) FOMC is 03/20
e) to make this call 2211, 2122, 2340, 2200 (hi, lo, hi, lo) within 84 hours...
f) is just NOT EASY TO DO
g) to what are the odds this hit perfect (and by that I mean those four hi-los)?
h) it's not big, and while my trend engine calls this the favorite with NO SECOND PLACE RIGHT NOW...
I) that thing change its mind with a 2 point move the wrong place, so
m) this is underdog call no doubt
n) and may the gold gods favor the underdogs for through 03/13/24
Note
FOR THE RECORD, MY FIRST CALL FOR THE MOVE UP WAS ON 02/19, view here:
a) for chart above, this one was the one that preceded 2150 ON 03/08 DRAFT 1
b) this call (chart at top) ...
c) should do well, in my humbled opinion
Note
FOR MY REGULAR READERS: SPX-BTC-DXY-CL1) last week in notes for "2150" series, I called that SPX would make continuous all time highs by 03/08
2) and I DEFINED THAT AS 3 SEPARATE DAYS
3) so:
Note
Note
4) I called for bitcoin 58000, 630005) then called for 71000, changed my mind when support broke
6) clocked it for a move to 55000, when clock expired
7) called for 63, 64, 65,5, and 66,500 (and topped bc it was way overvalued)
Note
8) ... right before the check downNote
9) DX was the one I was most unsure about, bc it changed signals twice10) but I stated last that it REOPENED THE DOOR TO 102.75
11) so it is 102.78 right now:
Note
12) the original target for the dollar was 102.5 (it could hit that tonight) 13) so for 03/08:
a) gold 2150 check
b) spx 3 all time highs check
c) bitcoin 58, 63, 63, 64, 65.5, 66,500 check
d) and dx 102.75 check
Note
e) I saw nothing for oil, but stated that it could hit 82.5-83 by 04/01f) it has since only went sideways (nothing)
g) but odds off it hitting that target has dropped somewhat
h) while it may still head that direction, that is off the table for me
I) bc I need more time to look at again
Note
m) I considered that a a pretty good two weeksn) but that's not enough for what I need to do
o) so I've been saying for sometime that I'm running out of time
p) I have four trading days left to make this work
q) FRI-MON-TUE-WED
r) and I have to hit EVERY SINGLE DAY
s) so good luck to everyone, let's kill it tonight
Note
5:25 PM PRE-OPEN NOTESa) this move likes to start with a check down, BUT DOESN'T HAVE TO
b) if it checks, it will 2155
c) above 2182, there will be FOUR CEILINGS THAT CAN GET HIT
1) 2200, 2211, 2225, 2237
2) I think it's 2211, but once you get there , the "runaway" does crazy things
3) so 2237 is the runaway ceiling
Note
4) the hi-light at top is a bit fast5) not a problem this time bc I had to get, didn't have a lot time for details
Note
6) it's not knowable if this thing checks down first or not7) or if it moves up a bit, then checks down
8) but once we past it we will know, no way right now of knowing before hand
Note
9) like this:Note
a) for chart above, right now it doesn't look like it willb) there but part as STRONG TENDENCY to surprise check down to disappoint
c) and then swing hard up
Note
d) so 60.28 now, and previous high is 64.85e) if WE ARE NOT OVER 64, that risk of check to whatever is still there
f) it could be 62.5 then move to 55 and swing up
g) or just drift up, there's no rhyme or reason for this spot
Note
h) gold does this pattern on small and big scales every now and then:Note
I) it happens more in commodities than other markets I thinkm) but we are built for that pattern tonight
n) and we are the beginning of the move
o) once it starts it will be obvious
Note
Note
7:26 PM ET 62.xx no excitement until we see 65a) or 70 something
b) Im getting food for a couple of hours
c) be back soon
d) we are on track NOT SLOW
e) we just have complete the move to the box
Note
7:58 PM 59.XX that's the check downNote
a) that's the hard partb) a move to 65 soon would secure the pattern the rest of the way
Note
8:52 PM, As said earlier floor is 55.a) once it's done, it'll be about 2-3 hours to get to 65
b) I'm not a fan of late moves as said many times before
c) BUT WE ARE NOT LATE
d) we are on time
Note
9:18 after tagging 55.87 it's 58.38 as I type, it's now is the beginning of the reboundNote
a) our goal is to make 65-70 b) and then stall for 2 hours
Note
Note
9:49 56.14 we are not late a) we are on time
b) the window to move up is open for 60-90- minutes
Note
Note
a) for chart above we need to move to 67+ nowb) but preferably higher like 75
c) why?
d) bc the out of position wave means more zig zag
Note
e) 70+is way good, we don't need 75 for that first stepf) but be more defensive with your gains on the way up
g) bc usually, that the wave that's means not more zig zag, BUT BIGGER ZIG ZAG
Note
typo -- because usually, that wave (that's out of position) will curl, meaning big up big downNote
11:07 PM ET 2156.84 NOT SURE THIS IS GOING TO GO QUICK AND THAT'S A PROBLEM BC OF NFP TOMORROWa) this wave that is out of position is saying it's going to take its sweet time
b) so if this doesn't move quick
d) it will stall and goes sideways in 2160s until NFP
d) I am not sure yet but I'm saying that's a possible
Note
e) ... outcome right nowf) because while the bulls aren't pushing as hard as I want to see
g) bears don't have window yet
h) so let's give a a couple hours to see where we are
I) if this doesn't gear up quick, set an alarm for tomorrow
Note
12:20 AM ET, 2157.32a) it is not moving
b) the only move it has now is wait until morning
c) sorry that was annoying
Order cancelled
12:37 AM ET 2156.65 a) don't know what it wants to do here
b) whatever it is, it doesn't make any sense
c) maybe it'll morph into a top by morning
d whatever it is, it's not this DRAFT
e) and it's not the previous idea either
f) I'm stumped here, so I am going to bed
Note
g) from a pattern stand point it should've SHOT UP HARDh) from a trend stand point, it's losing it's massive high setup
I) so the ceiling which was 2237, is dropping fast under 2200
m) but under 2200 doesn't make any sense
n) so why is it not dropping like a rock and reversing down hard?
o) I hate the word "equilibrium" bc it just means you can't figure it out
p) and sometimes you can't
q) good night!
Note
12:59 AM 2157.XXa) we have NOT topped for Friday
b) we have NOT topped for next Week
c) we are still aiming for 2340 next Wednesday
d) HOW we get there pattern wise, I haven't a clue
e) sometimes there are really UGLY looking patterns
f) that will involve big zig zag surprises
g) what ever it's going to be, I can't make sense of it
h) but it does look like 2180s tomorrow
I) so that's it
Note
m) I also have to believe that whatever high we get tomorrown) probably gets rug pulled by half or more
Note
9:52 AM ET 2170.xx a) as I thought 2180s sold off half or more
b) but it was a difficult one to get the move right
c) so what now?
d) first my expectation for next week's 2340 remains base case
e) that part is easy, just buy the low before CPI
f) but that's next Tuesday AM
g) the part you want to know is what for today and until then
h) there's several things worth saying
1) obviously if you are going to 2340 you need a decent correction
2) that correction has 2 targets 2144 and 2122
3) why? you are going up another 200-ish, checking down 30-50 from here is obviously reasonable
Note
4) so the people that trade every several days are are selling this down 5) BUT the people that trade every day are still hyped
6) so you caught in a zig zag area from 64-72
7) this has a duration of 3-4 hours before the day traders give up
8) so the expectation is SLOWLY SIDEWAYS TO DOWN
9) and finally get to 2144
Note
10) but the overall trend is so bullish, it's not ovious that bears can make it down to 2144 today11) it could be Sunday or Monday AM
Note
12) so the longer bears take to get to 2144 the less their odds of making 212213) because overall trend is pushing hard to 2340
Note
14) when I typed last night 2015 was a typo (in answering someone's comment)15) because I was talking about the high getting pushed to AFTER CPI, I meant 2215
16) I added a correction to it down there after I said that in the comment
Note
Note
17) in chart above so bears tagged the black bold line and it was furiously bought as reaction to NFP18) the line under that is red bold line
19) these two lines I talked about in the previous 2 posts
20) it is OBVIOUS that you should have SOME PROFIT TAKING FROM BULLS
21) because it's been a pretty good run
22) profit taking again is done by weekly traders, bc it has been 2 great weeks
23) but all the micro daily stuff is STRONG AF
24) you're going to get that zig zag until daily traders realize HIGH IS IN FOR TODAY
Note
25) my overall view of this move remain the same26) we got our Friday high 2180s so check down, zig zag for 48 hours
27) then a massive 24 hour spike to 2340
Note
28) but the "hi-light pattern" for this 48 hours IS REALLY HARD TO DO 29) because of the battle between profit takers and trend followers
30) you won't get that decent check down until the daily trend followers give up
31) BUT REMEMBER, if you see 2144 PRETTY GOOD BUY, for 2340
32) but if you see 2122 VERY GOOD BUY (but its not obvious bears can do it)
Note
10:35 74.xx the trend is going to holda) it's not going to down
b) so this has the effect of throwing off what the route should look like to 2340
c) basically too much buyin pressure for 40 pt correction
Note
d) THAT'S TOTAL WRAP FOR THIS POST 1) so we gointo 2340
2) buy I don't know what it should look like bc apparently we ARE NOT CORRECTING more
3) so will post something if I know something
4) but i'm completely stumped on "the route" now
Note
5) so looks like 2155 is the new HARD FLOOR6) there are just no sellers
Note
7) 10:54 PM, So how do you get to 2340, but w/o a 40 pt correction??8) how is that possible?
9) BY GOING TO 2210 SUNDAY NIGHT
10) THEN CHECKING TO 2170 MONDAY MORNING
Note
THIS POST IS NOW DONE. HERE IS DRAFT 2
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.