GOLD: short-term long, long-term short
Updated
Fundamental analysis
Reasons for last week's rise in gold prices:
1.A round of banking crisis shook the global market, and the bet on the Federal Reserve's less aggressive stance on fighting inflation was also consolidated.
2.The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank highlighted the vulnerability of banks facing a sharp increase in interest rates, and the sharp drop in Credit Suisse's stock price exacerbated market turmoil.
3.The market is worried that more bad news from the banking industry may come out over the weekend, and is also concerned that the Federal Reserve will suspend interest rate hikes and reduce monetary measures such as lowering interest rates next week to save the market, in order to prevent a recurrence of the 2008 financial crisis.
4.As a safe-haven asset, gold shines brightly in the chaotic financial environment, and benefits as a safe-haven product.
5.The decline in the US dollar and stock market makes gold a more attractive investment. It is seen as a hedging tool in times of economic uncertainty.
What to watch for this week:
1.After the crazy rise, the market may return to reason.
2.Meanwhile, another major Swiss bank, UBS Group, is negotiating a full or partial acquisition of Credit Suisse.
3.Regulatory agencies and other banks have intervened in three smaller US banks, including First Republic Bank, to provide support. Credit Suisse has become the first major global bank to receive emergency assistance since the financial crisis. This may cool down the Credit Suisse incident.
4.The Federal Reserve will still announce a 25 basis point rate hike when its meeting ends on March 22 next week, which will bring bearish pressure on gold.
Technical analysis:
Gold fell back to the support level on the hourly chart, and the lower Bollinger Band also provided support. If the short-term support level is not broken, a rebound may occur. However, it is unlikely to return to above 2000, and the emotional momentum has begun to weaken. Once a Head and Shoulders pattern is formed, it will be the starting point for a new round of decline.
Overall trend:
Risk of a drop this week as the safe-haven sentiment decreases. However, the safe-haven sentiment is still high, and it may be difficult for gold to continue to decline in the short term. Therefore, the overall direction is long-term short and short-term long.
Trading strategy:
Short from 1968-1970, with resistance targets at 1980 and 1990.
When the price reaches 1990 or above, it can be aggressively shorted. Currently at 1959 and 1900.
XAUUSDGOLD
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Reasons for last week's rise in gold prices:
1.A round of banking crisis shook the global market, and the bet on the Federal Reserve's less aggressive stance on fighting inflation was also consolidated.
2.The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank highlighted the vulnerability of banks facing a sharp increase in interest rates, and the sharp drop in Credit Suisse's stock price exacerbated market turmoil.
3.The market is worried that more bad news from the banking industry may come out over the weekend, and is also concerned that the Federal Reserve will suspend interest rate hikes and reduce monetary measures such as lowering interest rates next week to save the market, in order to prevent a recurrence of the 2008 financial crisis.
4.As a safe-haven asset, gold shines brightly in the chaotic financial environment, and benefits as a safe-haven product.
5.The decline in the US dollar and stock market makes gold a more attractive investment. It is seen as a hedging tool in times of economic uncertainty.
What to watch for this week:
1.After the crazy rise, the market may return to reason.
2.Meanwhile, another major Swiss bank, UBS Group, is negotiating a full or partial acquisition of Credit Suisse.
3.Regulatory agencies and other banks have intervened in three smaller US banks, including First Republic Bank, to provide support. Credit Suisse has become the first major global bank to receive emergency assistance since the financial crisis. This may cool down the Credit Suisse incident.
4.The Federal Reserve will still announce a 25 basis point rate hike when its meeting ends on March 22 next week, which will bring bearish pressure on gold.
Technical analysis:
Gold fell back to the support level on the hourly chart, and the lower Bollinger Band also provided support. If the short-term support level is not broken, a rebound may occur. However, it is unlikely to return to above 2000, and the emotional momentum has begun to weaken. Once a Head and Shoulders pattern is formed, it will be the starting point for a new round of decline.
Overall trend:
Risk of a drop this week as the safe-haven sentiment decreases. However, the safe-haven sentiment is still high, and it may be difficult for gold to continue to decline in the short term. Therefore, the overall direction is long-term short and short-term long.
Trading strategy:
Short from 1968-1970, with resistance targets at 1980 and 1990.
When the price reaches 1990 or above, it can be aggressively shorted. Currently at 1959 and 1900.
XAUUSDGOLDYour support is my motivation. Click the small rocket or leave a comment to let me know you're supporting me. Thank you!
Trade active
Trade active
Trade closed: target reached
The empty order successfully reached the first goal in 1959Trade closed: target reached
Trade closed: target reached
Trade closed: target reached
Trade closed: target reached
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