GDP and PCE will be two important data for GOLD price trends
Updated
The US Dollar Index is entering accumulation and recovering after 2 days of decline, making gold priced in US Dollars less attractive thanks to direct correlation.
The near-term appeal of the precious metal remains weak as tensions in the Middle East ease and safe-haven demand weakens.
The gold market has been less affected by the escalating conflict in the Middle East as developments have cooled down. What the market is interested in as well as the current trading question is whether this correction in gold prices will create a long-term downtrend, or simply a short-term decline.
Directions and clues about the answer keep the market focused on the Fed and economic data. If inflation data continues to show stubborn, hot inflation could push the Fed to keep interest rates high for longer. Originally, the interest rate cut time had been pushed back by the market to September, previously expected to be June. This is not beneficial for gold, an asset that does not yield any yield.
First-quarter GDP and core inflation will provide additional data on when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.
US gross domestic product (GDP) data will be released on (today) Thursday and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report will be released on Friday.
US core PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is expected to rise at a solid 0.3%, with the annual index falling to 2.6% from 2.8% in the month Two. Gold prices could face a sharp sell-off if core inflation data comes in higher than expected.
Currently, traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates starting at its September meeting. Further signs of sustained price pressure will allow the Fed to maintain its stance of keeping interest rates on hold. at current levels over the long term. Theoretically, this scenario bodes well for the US dollar and US bond yields, while reducing the appeal of non-yielding gold.
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold is still struggling to maintain activity above the EMA21 level, and despite the recovery from the 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284 USD support levels presented to readers in previous issues, the The recovery levels were quickly defeated and entered a state of accumulation.
Temporarily, the market has not shown any signs of sudden changes to open a new trend structure, while technical conditions are still supporting the possibility of price increases with support from EMA21 and Fibonacci retracement 0.236. % as key support levels.
If gold holds above $2,322 it will be a positive and the target level is then aimed at $2,334, more so than $2,365.
On the other hand, a further bearish cycle will be unleashed once gold sells off below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, so protection levels for open long positions should be protected below the 0.236% Fibonacci level. %.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices remains supportive of upside with notable technical levels listed below.
Support: 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284USD
Resistance: 2,322 – 2,334 – 2,365USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2342 - 2340
⚰️SL: 2346
⬆️TP1: 2335
⬆️TP2: 2330
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2267 - 2269
⚰️SL: 2263
⬆️TP1: 2274
⬆️TP2: 2279
The near-term appeal of the precious metal remains weak as tensions in the Middle East ease and safe-haven demand weakens.
The gold market has been less affected by the escalating conflict in the Middle East as developments have cooled down. What the market is interested in as well as the current trading question is whether this correction in gold prices will create a long-term downtrend, or simply a short-term decline.
Directions and clues about the answer keep the market focused on the Fed and economic data. If inflation data continues to show stubborn, hot inflation could push the Fed to keep interest rates high for longer. Originally, the interest rate cut time had been pushed back by the market to September, previously expected to be June. This is not beneficial for gold, an asset that does not yield any yield.
First-quarter GDP and core inflation will provide additional data on when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.
US gross domestic product (GDP) data will be released on (today) Thursday and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report will be released on Friday.
US core PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is expected to rise at a solid 0.3%, with the annual index falling to 2.6% from 2.8% in the month Two. Gold prices could face a sharp sell-off if core inflation data comes in higher than expected.
Currently, traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates starting at its September meeting. Further signs of sustained price pressure will allow the Fed to maintain its stance of keeping interest rates on hold. at current levels over the long term. Theoretically, this scenario bodes well for the US dollar and US bond yields, while reducing the appeal of non-yielding gold.
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is still struggling to maintain activity above the EMA21 level, and despite the recovery from the 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284 USD support levels presented to readers in previous issues, the The recovery levels were quickly defeated and entered a state of accumulation.
Temporarily, the market has not shown any signs of sudden changes to open a new trend structure, while technical conditions are still supporting the possibility of price increases with support from EMA21 and Fibonacci retracement 0.236. % as key support levels.
If gold holds above $2,322 it will be a positive and the target level is then aimed at $2,334, more so than $2,365.
On the other hand, a further bearish cycle will be unleashed once gold sells off below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, so protection levels for open long positions should be protected below the 0.236% Fibonacci level. %.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices remains supportive of upside with notable technical levels listed below.
Support: 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284USD
Resistance: 2,322 – 2,334 – 2,365USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2342 - 2340
⚰️SL: 2346
⬆️TP1: 2335
⬆️TP2: 2330
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2267 - 2269
⚰️SL: 2263
⬆️TP1: 2274
⬆️TP2: 2279
Note
Gold recovered to $2,326/oz and continued to trade within a rangeTrade active
Plan SELL Close 1/2 + 50pips. Move SL to Entry🔥Trade active
Plan SELL HIT TP1 +60pips. Heading to TP2😵Trade closed: target reached
Plan SELL Close Full Hit TP2 + 150pips 🗡Note
Gold prices have now recovered after falling sharply following last night's US GDP data and the precious metal is currently trading around $2,330. Although gold's upward momentum has weakened when the RSI indicator on the daily chart returned below the 60.00 threshold, the uptrend of XAU/USD is still maintained as the price is still above the short-term SMA lines. .Note
Note
✅ XAUUSD has dropped significantly since the beginning of the week after failing to close above 2,400 USD per troy ounce. The price dropped to the psychological support level of 2,300 USD/troy ounce but rebounded to form a Hammer candle, showing the possibility of recovery.Note
🔴The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta announces its growth estimates for the second quarterThe US Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta announced its preliminary estimates of the GDP growth rate during the second quarter of 2024, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDP forecasting model, and growth estimates in the second quarter came at 3.9%.
Note
As of early Asian session, spot gold price was stable around 2,330 USD/oz - up nearly 5% over the month - ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. After higher-than-expected inflation data was released in recent months, authorities are expected to change their stance in Hawkish's direction.Note
⭕️The dollar declines ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s decisionThe US dollar witnessed clearly stable movements during early trading on Wednesday, but the greenback quickly declined, affected by growing market concerns about weak US economic growth.
Note
According to its Financial Stability Report released on Wednesday, the RBNZ said that although global inflation is showing signs of cooling and financial markets predict interest rates will fall next year, "there remains a risk of new or persistent inflationary pressures". This could cause global interest rates to remain high for longer, putting pressure on households, businesses and the financial system.Note
🔺Spot gold prices fell sharply during trading on Thursday, erasing some of the gains achieved by the precious metal in the previous session, as a result of the strength of the US dollar and the rise in US Treasury bond yields, which coincided with a calming of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the decline of fears of a regional war breaking out in the region.
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🧩Consulting on Risk Management
🧩Account management
🧩Forex signals have a high win rate
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