Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Updated

XAUUSD H4 Outlook – Monday, May 12, 2025

543
Short-Term Bias: Bullish retracement toward premium zones
Structure: CHoCH confirmed at 3284 → forming potential bullish leg inside retracement

🔍 Recent Price Action (H4 Insight):
Clear CHoCH on H4 above 3292 → short-term structure flipped bullish.

Last impulsive leg pushed price into the 3330–3345 zone before rejecting slightly — signs of near-term resistance.

EMA5 and EMA21 are crossing upward, with price trying to retest EMA21 for a bounce.

Next H4 candle closure is critical — either holds 3290 for continuation or re-tests deeper zone.

📌 Key H4 Zones
Zone / Level Description
3380–3395 🔺 H4 FVG + OB zone – major near-term premium resistance (also Daily level)
3340–3345 🔁 H4 internal resistance – Friday top, low-volume gap area
3314–3318 🔁 Micro H4 imbalance – intraday fill zone
3284–3292 ✅ H4 CHoCH + OB – current bullish base, critical to hold
3250–3265 🔵 Deep demand – final intraday bounce zone before HTF demand

These levels will be your H4 battle zones — where price is likely to bounce, reverse, or accelerate depending on confirmation.

🔁 Potential Flow on Monday:
Bullish scenario:
If price holds 3284–3292 → intraday targets = 3318 → 3340 → 3380.
Clean structure = higher low + EMA support confluence.

Bearish scenario:
If price loses 3284 → could test 3250–3265. Only below this would invalidate current H4 bullish flow.

⚠️ Confluence Check:
EMAs: EMA5 crossing up through EMA21 → short-term bullish momentum building

Liquidity: Buy-side above 3345 → price may attempt sweep if supported

FVGs: Still unfilled gaps between 3314 and 3380 → magnet zones for bullish flow

CHoCH: Valid on 3284 → first HL attempt happening now

🧠 H4 Summary (for May 12):
Type Zone Reaction Potential
Resistance 3380–3395 Strong rejection possible
3340–3345 May slow price if volume weak
Support 3284–3292 Critical bullish structure zone
3250–3265 Breaker block zone (last bounce before HTF demand)

💬 Final Word to the Community:
Gold may have paused its moon mission at 3500, but the engines are refueling. Monday’s battle will be all about 3284 — hold it, and bulls might just take flight toward 3380. Lose it, and we buckle in for a deeper dip.

🟡 Whether you’re team buy-the-dip or wait-for-the-fade… stay sharp, stay patient, and always follow structure.
Like what you see? Drop a comment, tag a gold friend, and follow GoldFxMinds to never miss the real flow. 🧠⚡
Trade active
🔁 H4 Outlook Update – May 12 (Post-London / NY Session)
Short-Term Bias: Still bullish, but in retracement phase
H4 Flow: Higher low (HL) formation likely — key demand is reacting

🔄 STRUCTURE UPDATE (vs. Saturday's plan)
✅ 3284–3292 → Tested and held cleanly. Price reacted bullish as expected.

🔁 3314–3318 → Nearly filled, but no continuation — price rejected intraday.

🔻 H4 CHoCH at 3284 is still valid.

⚠️ Price is now hovering around key demand + EMA200 (3224–3228).

🔍 Updated Key H4 Zones (Valid for May 12–13)
Type Zone Status / What to Watch
🔺 Resistance 3380–3395 Major FVG + OB zone — untouched
🔁 Resistance 3340–3345 Friday top + low-volume rejection zone
⚠️ Imbalance 3314–3318 Still a magnet — if bullish flow resumes
✅ Demand 3284–3292 Confirmed as bullish base (HL)
🔵 Demand 3220–3228 Active now — valid reentry zone w/ M5 CHoCH
🔵 Final Demand 3193–3205 Last line of defense — under = bias shift

🎯 Tactical Setup
If you’re already long from 3215–3220 → Hold for TP zones: 3240 → 3284

If you’re not in yet:

🟦 Entry #1: Look for confirmation inside 3220–3228 (M5 CHoCH or engulf)

🔄 Entry #2: If price breaks 3248 and forms HL → possible aggressive breakout entry

🧠 Summary
Bias: Bullish as long as 3220–3228 holds

Invalidation: Break below 3205 = failed HL → neutral/bearish risk

📌 Stick to your structure. Reentries are valid only from refined zones — not late on top. We trade reaction, not emotion.
Trade closed: target reached
🔻 XAUUSD Market Update – May 14, 2025
📉 Short-Term Bias: Bearish
📍 Session Focus: NY + NYSE Open

🧠 Market Context:
Bearish continuation confirmed after BOS on both H1 and H4

Price broke below 3220 with momentum, now reacting from a key discount area

Retracement likely before further continuation

EMA 200 on H4 just gave way — confirms pressure remains to the downside

🧱 Key Structural Zones to Watch
Type Price Range Confluence
Sell Zone 1 3220–3228 H1/H4 OB + recent FVG + EQ reaction
Sell Zone 2 3240–3248 Imbalance + bearish OB
Sell Zone 3 3265–3272 Last mitigation zone before major drop
Buy Zone 1 3190–3195 M15 FVG + micro CHoCH forming
Buy Zone 2 3175–3182 H4 FVG + strong low
Buy Zone 3 3150–3157 Final unmitigated demand zone in structure

⚙️ What to Watch
Possible short-term reaction at 3190s → look for CHoCH confirmation on LTF

Retracement back toward 3220–3240 zones could provide next bearish opportunity

If price breaks below 3175 → watch 3150 zone as next defensive level

No guessing. No rushing. Just structure, logic, and clean execution.
— GoldFxMinds (GoldMindsFX) 💡

🔥 Drop a comment if these levels helped clarify your bias!

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