Hello,
🪙 XAU/USD Weekly Outlook
📅 May 25 – 30, 2025
📍 Current Price: $3,355.35
📈 RSI (1D): 57.99 — Neutral to mild bullish momentum
🔮 Summary & Key Levels
Gold remains bullish, supported by USD weakness, geopolitical tension, and safe-haven demand. Without hawkish shocks, expect a test of $3,440+ this week.
Level Significance Likelihood
$3,300 – $3,355 Support zone, dip-buying likely 🔵 High
$3,355 – $3,390 Current range, mild upside grind 🟡 Moderate
$3,390 – $3,440 Key resistance test 🟢 Likely if USD weak
$3,440 – $3,500 Breakout extension zone 🟠 Conditional (Fed/dovish data needed)
< $3,280 Bearish invalidation 🔴 Unlikely barring major USD reversal
🧭 Directional Bias:
Bullish with breakout potential — driven by rising U.S. debt concerns, Fed rate cut talk, and risk aversion.
🔍 Supporting Factors
US Dollar Weakness:
USD dropped 1.4–2.3% vs majors; JPY & CHF gained as safe havens.
Moody’s downgrade of U.S. credit rating and weak Treasury auctions amplify fiscal stress.
Trump’s tariff threats revive trade war fears, pressuring USD further.
Fed & Inflation Watch:
Fed speakers mixed; Waller hinted at cuts if tariffs escalate.
May 31 Core PCE inflation data critical — softer print could ignite breakout.
Safe-Haven Rotation:
JPY & CHF strength signals risk hedging.
Global tensions, equity fragility, Middle East unrest support gold demand.
🌐 Global Macro Highlights & Gold Implications
Region Highlights Gold Impact
🇺🇸 US Fiscal strain, downgrade, mixed data 🟢 Bullish
🇪🇺 Eurozone Hawkish ECB, stable inflation 🟡 Mildly bullish
🇬🇧 UK Strong CPI, Brexit optimism ⚪ Neutral
🇯🇵 Japan Hawkish BoJ pivot, rising inflation 🟢 Safe-haven driver
🇨🇭 Switzerland CHF rally, deflation concerns 🟢 Risk-off tone
🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿 Mixed data, dovish bias ⚪ Commodity FX support
📅 Key Events to Watch (May 25–30)
Date Event Impact on Gold
Daily Fed speakers (Waller, Bostic) 🟠 Dovish tone supports gold
Friday US Core PCE Inflation 🟥 Major catalyst — soft print = breakout risk
Anytime Trump tariff announcements 🟥 Volatility spike = bullish catalyst
Ongoing Risk sentiment & equity volatility 🟠 Supports safe-haven flows
✅ Bottom Line
Gold’s technical and macro setup is strong. A push above $3,390 could open a move toward $3,440–$3,470, especially if Friday’s PCE data disappoints or trade tensions escalate. Downside limited unless USD sentiment reverses sharply.
The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
🪙 XAU/USD Weekly Outlook
📅 May 25 – 30, 2025
📍 Current Price: $3,355.35
📈 RSI (1D): 57.99 — Neutral to mild bullish momentum
🔮 Summary & Key Levels
Gold remains bullish, supported by USD weakness, geopolitical tension, and safe-haven demand. Without hawkish shocks, expect a test of $3,440+ this week.
Level Significance Likelihood
$3,300 – $3,355 Support zone, dip-buying likely 🔵 High
$3,355 – $3,390 Current range, mild upside grind 🟡 Moderate
$3,390 – $3,440 Key resistance test 🟢 Likely if USD weak
$3,440 – $3,500 Breakout extension zone 🟠 Conditional (Fed/dovish data needed)
< $3,280 Bearish invalidation 🔴 Unlikely barring major USD reversal
🧭 Directional Bias:
Bullish with breakout potential — driven by rising U.S. debt concerns, Fed rate cut talk, and risk aversion.
🔍 Supporting Factors
US Dollar Weakness:
USD dropped 1.4–2.3% vs majors; JPY & CHF gained as safe havens.
Moody’s downgrade of U.S. credit rating and weak Treasury auctions amplify fiscal stress.
Trump’s tariff threats revive trade war fears, pressuring USD further.
Fed & Inflation Watch:
Fed speakers mixed; Waller hinted at cuts if tariffs escalate.
May 31 Core PCE inflation data critical — softer print could ignite breakout.
Safe-Haven Rotation:
JPY & CHF strength signals risk hedging.
Global tensions, equity fragility, Middle East unrest support gold demand.
🌐 Global Macro Highlights & Gold Implications
Region Highlights Gold Impact
🇺🇸 US Fiscal strain, downgrade, mixed data 🟢 Bullish
🇪🇺 Eurozone Hawkish ECB, stable inflation 🟡 Mildly bullish
🇬🇧 UK Strong CPI, Brexit optimism ⚪ Neutral
🇯🇵 Japan Hawkish BoJ pivot, rising inflation 🟢 Safe-haven driver
🇨🇭 Switzerland CHF rally, deflation concerns 🟢 Risk-off tone
🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿 Mixed data, dovish bias ⚪ Commodity FX support
📅 Key Events to Watch (May 25–30)
Date Event Impact on Gold
Daily Fed speakers (Waller, Bostic) 🟠 Dovish tone supports gold
Friday US Core PCE Inflation 🟥 Major catalyst — soft print = breakout risk
Anytime Trump tariff announcements 🟥 Volatility spike = bullish catalyst
Ongoing Risk sentiment & equity volatility 🟠 Supports safe-haven flows
✅ Bottom Line
Gold’s technical and macro setup is strong. A push above $3,390 could open a move toward $3,440–$3,470, especially if Friday’s PCE data disappoints or trade tensions escalate. Downside limited unless USD sentiment reverses sharply.
The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
Note
⚠️ Brace for Volatility: What’s Driving the FX Market This Week📅 May 26–30, 2025
This week is packed with high-stakes events and policy shifts. Expect strong moves across FX pairs as the market digests:
🏦 Central bank rate decisions
📉 Rising global uncertainty
💥 Escalating U.S. fiscal and trade tensions
🔙 What Just Happened? — Last Week’s Market Movers
The U.S. dollar suffered a broad selloff, losing 1.4% to 2.3% against major peers — one of its worst performances in months.
🧨 Key Catalysts:
U.S. credit rating downgraded
Deficit-widening tax bill passed
Tariff threats on EU goods set for June 1
Global risk sentiment turned defensive
🌍 Macro Backdrop: What’s Shaping Market Sentiment
🔺 U.S. Fiscal Alarm Bells
Credit downgrade + massive tax plan raise concerns about long-term debt sustainability
Treasury yields spiked, particularly on the 30-year bond
⚔️ Trade War Redux
50% tariff threat on EU imports has revived global trade tension worries
Triggered sharp risk-off reactions across assets
📈 Europe Gets a Sentiment Boost
"Brexit reset" optimism and sticky inflation supported EUR and GBP
Region benefited from USD weakness and relatively stable macro expectations
🏛 Central Bank Signals
🏦 Bank 🗣️ Tone 💬 Highlights
🇺🇸 Fed Mixed Hawkish speeches overshadowed by fiscal policy concerns
🇨🇳 PBOC Dovish First benchmark rate cut in 7 months (1Y: 3.1% → 3.0%)
🇦🇺 RBA Dovish Cut 25bps; discussed deeper cuts; downgraded outlook
🇪🇺 ECB Unclear Some officials hint at pausing cuts; others still dovish
📊 Economic Highlights from Last Week
📍 Region 🧾 Data 📈 Surprise?
🇯🇵 Japan Core CPI 3.5% Beat; +13% m/m in machinery orders
🇨🇦 Canada CPI 1.7% y/y Cooled below BoC target
🇬🇧 U.K. CPI 3.5% y/y Higher than expected; retail sales jumped
🇺🇸 U.S. PMIs 52.3 Stable readings, but ignored due to fiscal concerns
📋 FX Fundamentals Leaderboard
Based on monetary stance, macro resilience, and risk sentiment alignment (10 = strongest).
Rank Currency Score Rationale
🥇 1 🇯🇵 JPY 8.9 Hawkish BoJ + global safe-haven demand
🥈 2 🇨🇭 CHF 7.8 Traditional safe-haven flows; SNB firm
🥉 3 🇪🇺 EUR 6.8 USD weakness + inflation resilience
4 🇬🇧 GBP 6.3 Hot inflation supports BoE patience
5 🇳🇿 NZD 6.1 Pre-RBNZ rally; mixed local data
6 🇨🇦 CAD 5.9 CPI drop + oil volatility weigh
7 🇦🇺 AUD 5.7 RBA dovish pivot + China exposure
8 🇺🇸 USD 4.2 Lost safe-haven status, fiscal drag
⚠️ Themes Driving This Week’s Market
1. 🧾 U.S. Fiscal Risk Surge
Trigger: Credit downgrade + deficit-heavy tax plan
Impact: Weighs on USD and Treasuries
2. ⚔️ Trade War Threats Escalate
Trigger: 50% EU tariff warning
Impact: Risk-off flows into JPY, CHF; hits AUD, NZD, CAD
3. 🏦 Central Bank Divergence
Trigger: BoJ hawkish; RBA, RBNZ leaning dovish
Impact: JPY outperformance, pressure on AUD/NZD
4. 🔄 Safe-Haven Rotation
Trigger: USD loses appeal amid internal risks
Impact: CHF, JPY become primary risk-averse plays
5. 🛢️ Oil Price Volatility
Trigger: Price swings on OPEC+ uncertainty ($64 → $60.30)
Impact: CAD and other commodities-linked FX struggle
📆 Key Events Ahead (GMT)
🗓️ Wednesday – May 28
🇦🇺 CPI – Inflation check for the RBA (01:30)
🇳🇿 RBNZ Rate Decision – 25bp cut expected (02:00)
🇺🇸 FOMC Minutes – Insights on trade & fiscal views (18:00)
🗓️ Thursday – May 29
🇺🇸 Preliminary GDP Q1 – Key growth metric (12:30)
🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims – Labor strength signal (12:30)
🇬🇧 BoE’s Bailey Speech – Post-CPI rate clues (19:00)
🗓️ Friday – May 30
🇪🇺 German CPI (All Day) – Important for ECB watchers
🇨🇦 Monthly GDP – CAD performance hinge (12:30)
🇺🇸 Core PCE – Fed’s favored inflation gauge (12:30)
🧠 Potential Market Scenarios
✅ Base Case (60%)
USD remains under pressure
JPY, CHF stay firm on risk-off flows
NZD slips post-RBNZ cut
⚠️ Risk-Off Escalation (30%)
Tariff threat materializes
Commodity FX tumble
Yields spike further on deficit worries
📈 Surprise Recovery (10%)
Tariff rollback or deal optimism
U.S. data stays resilient
USD stages short-covering bounce
✅ Trader Notes
Adjust position sizes ahead of key events
Use clear exit levels given rising intraday volatility
Watch for liquidity gaps, especially around central bank updates and Friday’s Core PCE data
Trade active
Note
Whiplash Week: Dollar Surges, Gold Swings, and Central Banks Hold FireGlobal & FX Weekly Recap + Pro XAU/USD View
May 26–30, 2025
⚡️ Markets in Flux: Legal Limbo, Central Bank Caution, and Risk Roulette
What started as a "relief rally" turned into a chaotic week for global markets, dominated by mixed macro data, a court ruling on U.S. tariffs, and a return of China risk. From FX to commodities, asset classes moved in sync with political headlines more than fundamentals. And in the middle of this storm? Gold (XAU/USD), caught between fading inflation fears and renewed geopolitical tensions.
🧭 FX Market Themes
🇺🇸 USD – A Ping-Pong Ride
Bullish catalysts: Trump’s tariff delay (July 9 deadline), surging consumer confidence (98 vs. 84 forecast), and Fed “patience” on cuts.
Bearish triggers: A federal court struck down tariffs (trade uncertainty), GDP revised lower, jobless claims ticked up, and Core PCE softened (+0.1% MoM).
Result: USD rallied hard early but retraced as the legal fog deepened.
🇪🇺 EUR – The Resilient Euro
Held ground despite weak German and French data. Tariff relief and strong sentiment (EU Econ Sentiment: 94.8) kept it afloat.
ECB stayed cautious; no rate cut likely before September.
🇬🇧 GBP – Top Performer (Early)
Hit 3-year highs ($1.3594) before month-end flows dragged it down. Benefited from improved trade sentiment and “risk-on” positioning.
🇨🇦 CAD – From Laggard to Leader
Strong GDP (+2.2% y/y) and income data flipped the loonie into the top G10 performer by Friday.
🇨🇭 CHF – Risk Barometer
Switzerland’s trade surplus and sentiment improved. CHF zigzagged with risk appetite.
🇦🇺 / 🇳🇿 AUD & NZD – China Exposure Hurt
Soft retail data and renewed U.S.-China tension punished both. Kiwi's RBNZ cut failed to hold support amid collapsing sentiment indicators.
🇯🇵 JPY – Inflation Surprise, But Still Weak
Tokyo CPI jumped (3.6%), and BOJ hinted at higher rates. But weak demand for bonds and poor industrial output made JPY the week’s worst.
🪙 Pro XAU/USD (Gold) Perspective: Volatile, Vulnerable, but Not Broken
📉 Price Action Recap:
Monday: Dropped 1% to $3,330 on Trump’s tariff delay (risk-on).
Tuesday: Down another 1.9% as legal challenges to tariffs boosted the USD and yields.
Midweek: Gold touched $3,269 after the federal court ruled tariffs illegal.
Friday: Whipsawed as China tensions returned and traders reassessed Fed path.
🔍 Key Drivers:
Real Yields: U.S. 10-year yields surged midweek, undercutting gold's appeal.
Inflation: Core PCE rose just 0.1%, confirming disinflation but lowering urgency for Fed easing.
Geopolitics: Reignited China rhetoric + Middle East calm (Hamas ceasefire) kept safe-haven demand muted… until late Friday.
⚖️ Strategic Take:
“XAU/USD showed vulnerability to legal and yield-driven flows but remained above key psychological support at $3,250. The $3,280–$3,330 zone is now critical. Gold's failure to break lower despite risk-on spikes suggests traders are still holding insurance—quietly.”
🧭 Pro Outlook:
Neutral-to-Bullish bias near-term if:
Legal uncertainty around tariffs persists.
China relations worsen or OPEC tensions spike.
Bearish risks:
Fed sticks to “no-cut” language.
Core PCE continues cooling.
U.S. yields break higher again.
📊 Winners & Losers (FX)
🏆 Top Performers:
🇨🇦 CAD | 🇬🇧 GBP (early) | 🇺🇸 USD (choppy but net up)
🥈 Defensive Plays:
🇪🇺 EUR | 🇨🇭 CHF
🔻 Underperformers:
🇦🇺 AUD | 🇳🇿 NZD | 🇯🇵 JPY
🧠 Final Thoughts: Legal Drama, No Central Bank Clarity, and Gold in Limbo
The market got everything this week—policy delay, legal reversals, yield spikes, and tariff threats 2.0. Gold, often a safe-haven leader in chaos, instead danced to the tune of U.S. real yields and legal uncertainty. Traders are clearly watching Trump’s next move, the July 9 deadline, and June’s inflation prints.
With central banks sidelined and geopolitics in play, XAU/USD is a coiled spring. Don’t mistake short-term volatility for trend direction. As real yields peak and legal fog thickens, gold's next move could be explosive—either way.
🗓️ Next Week’s Watchlist:
OPEC+ decision
U.S. ISM & NFP
China PMI
Eurozone inflation
Gold’s $3,250 support test
Note
🪙 XAU/USD Near $3,374: Eyeing a Re-Test of All-Time Highs🧭 Gold Near Major Resistance – Is $3,500 Next?
Gold is trading at $3,374, inching closer to its previous all-time high at $3,500. This level is psychologically and technically important, especially with macro crosswinds swirling.
🔥 What's Fueling Gold’s Strength?
Catalyst Impact
💵 USD Weakness As the dollar falters on trade & legal chaos, gold attracts inflows.
⚖️ Policy Divergence Fed cautious, ECB easing, BOJ tightening – this confusion lifts gold.
🛡️ Safe-Haven Flows CHF, JPY, and now gold are leading safety plays amid market stress.
🇨🇳 China Risks Talk of retaliation and policy shifts raises geopolitical demand for gold.
📊 Key XAU/USD Levels to Watch
Price Level Type Commentary
$3,500 🔼 Major Resistance All-time high and psychological barrier. Break = bullish continuation.
$3,320–$3,340 ⚖️ Short-Term Support Buyers defending dips; consolidation area.
$3,250 🔽 Deeper Pullback Zone Break below here could invite momentum shorts.
💡 Gold in the FX Context
1. 🛡️ Gold vs. USD as a Safe Haven
Gold is outshining the dollar during stress events, especially with legal volatility undermining confidence in U.S. institutions.
2. 📉 Gold’s Reaction to Central Bank Divergence
Fed’s “hold” policy contrasts with the ECB cut and BOJ hike prospects. This uncertainty = long gold.
3. 🔥 Trade Tensions Boost Strategic Gold Buying
Trump’s tariff drama and stalled China talks make gold a neutral hedge that avoids FX-specific risks.
📅 Gold-Relevant Events This Week
Date Event Gold Implications
Mon, Jun 2 🇺🇸 Powell Speaks Dovish = gold strength. Hawkish = possible pullback.
Thu, Jun 5 🇪🇺 ECB Rate Cut Weakens EUR but may weaken USD too if dovish global tone persists → gold supported
Fri, Jun 6 🇺🇸 Non-Farm Payrolls Weak data = gold breaks $3,400; strong = possible rejection near $3,500
📈 Gold Scenarios for June 2–6
Scenario Probability Gold Reaction
🧩 Base Case (55%) Mixed U.S. data, ECB cuts, BOJ cautious Gold trades $3,340–$3,400; possible test of $3,450
🚨 Risk-Off (30%) Weak NFP, China retaliation, trade ruling escalates Gold surges to re-test $3,500 highs
🟢 Risk-On (15%) Trade deal progress, strong NFP, Powell neutral Gold pulls back to $3,280–$3,320 zone
🎯 Trading Thoughts on XAU/USD
📈 Bulls: Look for consolidation breakouts above $3,400 with tight stops for a $3,500 test.
🧠 Swing Traders: $3,320 support zone is a critical pivot—bullish above, vulnerable below.
🛑 Bears: Short only on strong macro data + Powell hawkish surprise, targeting $3,250 or lower.
Note
🟡 Gold Surges as U.S. Data Sparks Fed Rate Cut Bets | Market Recap – June 4, 2025Markets were all over the place on Wednesday, driven by a wave of weak U.S. economic data that reignited hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Let’s break down the action:
🔥 Key Market Movers:
Asset Move Drivers
Gold (XAU/USD) ▲ $3,370 (+1.9%) Weaker USD, falling yields, stagflation fears
U.S. Dollar ▼ Across the board Disappointing ISM & ADP data; dovish Fed expectations
10-yr Treasury ▼ 4.46% → 4.365% Biggest drop in 7 weeks as bond demand surged
S&P 500 Flat Tug-of-war between recession fears and rate cut hopes
Dow Jones ▼ 0.22% Dragged by economic worries
Nasdaq ▲ 0.32% Techs ride easing-rate optimism
Oil (WTI) ▼ $62.66 Saudi supply hints, fuel inventory build-up
Bitcoin ▲ $105K Quiet grind higher amid soft dollar
📉 U.S. Data Disappointed
Report Actual Forecast Previous
ISM Services PMI 49.9 52.0 51.6
ADP Private Payrolls 37K 70K 62K
S&P Global Services PMI 53.7 52.3 50.8
💬 Why It Matters for Gold (XAU/USD):
These results show the U.S. economy slowing faster than expected. Traders fear stagflation—slow growth with stubborn inflation. That pushed rate-cut expectations higher and yields lower, weakening the dollar and boosting demand for gold as a safe haven.
🧩 Global Highlights
🇯🇵 Japan Services PMI slipped to 51.0
🇦🇺 Australia Q1 CapEx barely rose (+0.1%), AUD weakened
🇩🇪 Germany & 🇪🇺 Euro Area Services PMI contracted
🇬🇧 UK Services PMI beat expectations
🇸🇦 Saudi hints at +411K bpd oil increase in August
🇨🇦 Bank of Canada held rates at 2.75%, CAD strengthened
🟡 Takeaway for XAU/USD:
Worsening global data + energy market uncertainties + falling real yields = bullish gold.
🗓️ What’s Next? | June 5, 2025 Key Risks to Watch
Time (GMT) Event Market Impact Focus
06:00 🇩🇪 Germany Factory Orders EUR, risk sentiment
12:15 🇪🇺 ECB Rate Decision EUR, global yield curves
12:30 🇺🇸 U.S. Jobless Claims, Trade Balance USD, recession concerns
12:45 🇪🇺 ECB Press Conference EUR/USD, global risk
16:00+ 🇺🇸 Fed Speeches (Kugler, Harker) USD, XAU/USD
📌 For Gold Traders (XAU/USD):
Watch for dovish ECB language and weak U.S. jobless claims to further support gold. Fed speeches later in the day could add volatility if they confirm easing bias.
📈 XAU/USD Technical Outlook
Gold broke out to $3,370, the highest close in nearly a month. Momentum is strong on the back of:
🟢 Lower real yields
🟢 Safe-haven inflows
🟢 Dovish Fed bets
A sustained close above $3,380 could target $3,400–$3,420 next. Watch for resistance there and support around $3,340.
Note
🔍 U.S. Jobs Report Watch: What May’s NFP Could Mean for Markets📅 Key Event
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report (May 2025)
🕰️ Release Date & Time:
Friday, June 6 at 12:30 PM GMT
(Use a time zone converter to check your local time)
📈 Market Context & Why It Matters
Traders are on edge ahead of Friday’s jobs release, especially after the shockingly weak 37,000 ADP private jobs print. With forecasts at +130,000 for NFP, the report could reshape expectations around:
📉 Fed interest rate moves
💵 Dollar strength
🌍 Global risk sentiment
Add in ongoing trade tensions and stagflation worries, and you have the makings of a high-volatility event.
🔢 Market Forecasts
Metric Forecast Previous
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) +130,000 +177,000
Average Hourly Earnings +0.2% m/m +0.2% m/m
Unemployment Rate 4.2% 4.2%
🗓️ As of June 5, 2025, 03:31 AM GMT
🧠 What Recent Data Is Telling Us
🔼 Signals Pointing to Stronger Jobs (Bullish USD)
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May): 52.0 – Employment rose, though slightly
S&P Global Services PMI (May): 53.7 – Services hiring expanded
ISM Services Employment: 50.7 – Finally in growth territory
Dallas Fed Employment Components: Improving
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Employment: Slightly better
Chicago PMI: Noted uptick in employment vs. April
🔽 Signals Pointing to Weaker Jobs (Bearish USD)
ADP Jobs Report (May): Only +37,000 added – lowest in 2+ years
ISM Manufacturing Employment: 46.8 – Still in contraction
Consumer Sentiment: Cites “stagnating incomes”
Kansas Fed Manufacturing: Shrinking workforce
Weekly Jobless Claims (4-week avg): Elevated near 231K
💡 How Markets Reacted to Recent NFPs
April Report (Released May 2):
NFP: +177K (beat expectations)
USD Reaction: Mixed; early gains faded
Risk Sentiment: Lifted by trade talk hopes
Unemployment: Ticked up to 4.2%
Wages: Slowed to 0.2%
March Report (Released April 4):
NFP: +228K (well above forecast)
USD Reaction: Rallied sharply, especially vs. AUD & NZD
Unemployment: Edged up to 4.2%
Risk Sentiment: Volatile due to tariff announcements
⚖️ Possible Market Scenarios
🔹 Base Case (100K–140K Jobs Added)
USD: Initial drop, followed by stabilization
Risk Sentiment: Cautious optimism
Key Detail to Watch:
Wage growth steady at 0.2%
Unemployment holds at 4.2%
Likely FX Moves:
USD could slip vs. JPY and CHF
EUR gains may be limited due to ECB rate cut bets
🔻 Weak Case (<80K Jobs)
USD: Broad selling
Risk Sentiment: Sharp deterioration
Expect:
Fed rate cut chatter to spike
Concerns about a deeper slowdown
Likely FX Moves:
USD down vs. JPY, GBP, CAD
Risk-off trades dominate
📉 A downside surprise could rattle markets already anxious about Q1 GDP contraction and trade uncertainty.
🎯 How to Trade the Event
Wait for clarity: Avoid trading during the initial volatility spike
Watch for confirmation: Details matter more than the headline
Use key levels & stop losses: Position sizing and risk control are essential
Stay tuned to headlines: Any tariff or Fed-related remarks can shift sentiment quickly
🧭 Final Tips
Markets are walking a tightrope between rate cut expectations and stagflation fears
A poor report could accelerate policy shifts and rattle all asset classes
A solid print may support the dollar – but only if wage and unemployment data hold steady
Don’t ignore the geo-political backdrop – especially U.S.-China trade developments or political pressures on the Fed
💡 Preparation beats prediction. Have your game plan ready, manage risk, and let the market come to you.
Trade closed: target reached
$3,390 – $3,440 Key resistance test Done
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.