XAUUSD Weekly Outlook – May 12–17, 2025

187
High Timeframe Bias: Bullish with active pullback under premium supply

🔍 Macro Structure Insight:
Market structure remains bullish on Weekly, with a recent ATH at ~3500.

Price showed a strong rejection from the 3448–3500 premium supply zone but found support near 3284–3292.

We are currently in a retracement phase, and the next few candles will determine if it’s a reload or deeper correction.

📌 Key Weekly Structural Zones
Zone / Level Description
3500 ✅ ATH – liquidity sweep & rejection
3448–3500 🔺 Premium Weekly Supply – key rejection zone
3380–3395 🔁 Weekly FVG – potential short-term resistance
3284–3292 🔵 Fresh Support – demand reaction after daily wick bounce
3220–3250 🔵 HTF Weekly Demand – equilibrium & previous BOS zone
3120–3150 ❗ Critical Support – losing this would break bullish structure

📈 Fibonacci Weekly Extension Zones (Above ATH – 2285 → 3500 Leg)
Extension Level Target Price Description
1.0 3500 Current ATH
1.12 3560 First minor extension
1.18 3590 Shallow breakout target
1.236 3620 Key fibo confluence zone
1.272 3645 Round-level + breakout magnet
1.33 3680 Sentiment shift potential
1.414 3720 Major HTF fibo extension
1.5 3760 Mid-range round milestone
1.618 3800–3820 Golden extension + HTF magnet zone

🔁 Scenarios for This Week:
Bullish Continuation:
If 3284–3250 holds as a higher low → market may aim for 3380–3395, then test 3448–3500 again.
Breaking above ATH could trigger targets toward 3560 → 3590 → 3645.

Bearish Retracement:
If price breaks below 3250, a deeper move toward 3120–3150 could begin. This would threaten the weekly bullish leg.

⚠️ Watch for:
Weekly close below 3250 = short-term bearish shift

Push and hold above 3360–3380 = signs of bullish continuation

Rejection from 3448–3500 again = potential double-top liquidity trap

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