GOLD has dropped to its lowest level in 2 weeks

Updated

fell to its lowest in more than two weeks, weighed down by strength in the US dollar and rising bond yields, while traders looked ahead to US inflation data due later in the week. This

According to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 89.7% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 10.3%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until September is 37.2%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 57.3%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 5 .5%.
The focus this week will be on the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure that could provide guidance on interest rates. If the result is lower than expectations, the Fed is likely to An early federal interest rate cut will increase and support gold prices. The opposite is true if inflation increases.

GOLD falls below 2,330 USD, capital flows into China Gold ETF

Technical analysis of XAUUSD outlook
As sent to readers in yesterday morning's edition, gold currently has bearish conditions after the recovery momentum was defeated. Gold has fallen rapidly again and the price has dropped below the price point of 2,300 USD.

With current price activity, gold is still leaning towards price possibilities with the main pressure from EMA21 and the current main trend being noticed at the trendline.
As long as the rallies fail to take gold prices above the $2,340 technical level, price increases should only be considered short-term corrections and not an uptrend.

In the short term, with current price activity, gold is likely to continue to test the $2,286 price level rather than the $2,282 price point of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement.

The intraday trend of gold price is a downtrend and is noted as follows.
Support: 2,286 – 2,273USD
Resistance: 2,300 – 2,306 – 2,324USD

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2322 - 2320

⚰️SL: 2326

⬆️TP1: 2315
⬆️TP2: 2310

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2269 - 2271

⚰️SL: 2265

⬆️TP1: 2276
⬆️TP2: 2281

Note

🟡Gold prices stabilized today after falling to the lowest level in two weeks in the previous session, with investors awaiting US inflation data in search of indications about the path of the US Federal Reserve reducing interest rates.

Trade active

Plan SELL Close 1/2 + 30pips. Move SL to Entry🔥

Note

🟢One bank expects gold prices to fall to this level!

After gold prices (XAU/USD) rose earlier in the year, analysts at ABN AMRO Bank were cautious about their outlook on gold prices and maintained their forecasts at $2,000 per ounce by December 2024.

Note

Gold prices rose more than 1% on Thursday (June 27) from a more than two-week low hit in the previous session, as the dollar weakened and attention turned to key US inflation data to looking for clues about the policy roadmap of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

Note

GOLD recovers, supported by data, key trends, PCE eyes on

Note

🟡Gold prices are declining, but they are heading to record an increase for the third quarter in a row, at a time when investors are awaiting US inflation data scheduled to be released later today.

- Gold in spot transactions fell 0.3% to $2,321.18 per ounce

- Gold prices increased by about 4% during the second quarter of 2024

Note

(Focus) US core PCE: 0.1% m/m (Forecast: 0.1%. Previous: 0.2%)
Canadian GDP: 0.3 % m/m (Forecast: 0.3%. Previous: 0.0%)

Note

Gold price closed the trading week at 2,326 USD/ounce, a slight increase of about 5 USD/ounce compared to the end of last week.

Precious metals on the international exchange have not been able to break out in the short term as the USD continues to maintain a high level. The USD index currently stands around 105.87 points, up 1.14% over the previous month.

Note

On the daily chart, gold recovered but the early recovery was beaten by the target resistance area presented to readers in the previous issue of 2,340 – 2,345 USD, the price area of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement and technical level 2,345USD.

Gold's weekly close still within the price channel shows that the downtrend remains stable, while price activity returning below the EMA21 also makes this moving average the closest current resistance for gold. with the price of gold technically on the daily chart.

Note

World gold prices started a new trading week this morning (July 1) in a slightly decreasing state. After rising strongly in the second quarter and the first half of the year, gold prices have leveled off recently and experts predict they will continue to struggle in the short term.

Note

Goldman Sachs predicts when and how much the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates

Two analysts at the famous American investment bank, Goldman Sachs, presented their expectations for the steps of the US Federal Reserve regarding the date and number of times it will cut interest rates during the bank’s meetings this year.

Note

🔴Fed says it’s not ready to cut rates until ‘greater confidence’ inflation is moving to 2% goal.

Note

The dollar declines after interest rate cut hopes rise

The US dollar fell in early European trade on Thursday as weak economic data raised expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while the pound rose as the UK headed to the polls.

At 13:34 Riyadh time, the dollar index, which measures the US currency against a basket of six other currencies, was trading 0.15% lower at 104.907, continuing the sharp declines seen overnight.

Note

🔴The dollar falls to its lowest level in 3 weeks before the release of employment data

The US dollar fell sharply during major foreign exchange trading on Thursday, as market expectations rose regarding the Federal Reserve ending its monetary tightening policy.

Note

🟢Treasury yields rise as investors look to inflation data due in week ahead

➡️U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Monday as investors looked ahead to key economic data due throughout the week, including fresh inflation insights.

Note

🟢The US dollar begins the week's trading with a slight decline... Why?

The US dollar index witnessed clear downward pressure during global market transactions on Monday, after losing about 1% during the past week, affected by weak US economic data, which reinforced speculation about the possibility that the US Federal Reserve will begin reducing interest rates sooner than expected, which is something that... It may negatively affect future US dollar trading.

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