Gold Spot / U.S. DollarUpdated PRS LIVE 4 PART 2. THE LAST RETEST 1560, 7 WEEKS.
IMPORTANT TARGETS: 1670 BY WEDNESDAY 9/2. 1580 BY 9/23. 1560 BY 9/30. NEW ALL TIME HIGH BY APRIL 30 2021.
Quickies before I have to run:
1) We are still in bull market, but we have to have one of these major draw downs before we really get going. Last week, I had thought that it would come at 2500+ and retest 1980 (hence I said I had some conviction we may not see 1950 ever again). The reason for this was the massive curves on REALLY LONG TRENDS that I assumed would not change because it would take a move like this (the blue route), and it had to happen pretty soon (like start now). I had felt that time was running out for such a massive move, b/c of round tripping to meet the long curves next year. But price doesn't lie. These moves start off massively but the key is speed 213 pt drop that happens that fast in this context, implies much more down. It's not how much gold goes down that changes things, it's how fast. I wanted to see more strength this morning to hold the black route. Price does this by strengthening relative positions of regression lines. The black route is now an underdog by 3 to 2, perhaps more.
2) The black route is the most recent update before this one. The red route is just another way to get to 1980-1990 before the massive move down. It really doesn't matter. The blue route is all that matters right now.
3) The idea here is to short, that much is obvious. So where? Either points 1 or 2. SL 2000 -2020.
WANT A PERFECT TRADE:? OPTIONS STRADDLE AT THE MONEY W/ GLD (ETF) OR OG (FUTURES OPTIONS), 50-50 (CALL PUT) NOV EXPIRATION. YOU CAN EVEN BUY IT NOW. IT'S 1937 WHEN I'M WRITING THIS, IF IT CAN TAG 1997 TOMORROW, SELL THEM BOTH AND BUY AT 50-50 RATIO AGAIN. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, THE ODDS OF LOSING A STRADDLE IS VERY LOW, R/R IS MASSIVE CONSIDERING THE RETURN WHETHER THIS HITS 2160 OR 1760 FIRST.
UNLESS THINGS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY, NO UPDATES.
Quickies before I have to run:
1) We are still in bull market, but we have to have one of these major draw downs before we really get going. Last week, I had thought that it would come at 2500+ and retest 1980 (hence I said I had some conviction we may not see 1950 ever again). The reason for this was the massive curves on REALLY LONG TRENDS that I assumed would not change because it would take a move like this (the blue route), and it had to happen pretty soon (like start now). I had felt that time was running out for such a massive move, b/c of round tripping to meet the long curves next year. But price doesn't lie. These moves start off massively but the key is speed 213 pt drop that happens that fast in this context, implies much more down. It's not how much gold goes down that changes things, it's how fast. I wanted to see more strength this morning to hold the black route. Price does this by strengthening relative positions of regression lines. The black route is now an underdog by 3 to 2, perhaps more.
2) The black route is the most recent update before this one. The red route is just another way to get to 1980-1990 before the massive move down. It really doesn't matter. The blue route is all that matters right now.
3) The idea here is to short, that much is obvious. So where? Either points 1 or 2. SL 2000 -2020.
WANT A PERFECT TRADE:? OPTIONS STRADDLE AT THE MONEY W/ GLD (ETF) OR OG (FUTURES OPTIONS), 50-50 (CALL PUT) NOV EXPIRATION. YOU CAN EVEN BUY IT NOW. IT'S 1937 WHEN I'M WRITING THIS, IF IT CAN TAG 1997 TOMORROW, SELL THEM BOTH AND BUY AT 50-50 RATIO AGAIN. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, THE ODDS OF LOSING A STRADDLE IS VERY LOW, R/R IS MASSIVE CONSIDERING THE RETURN WHETHER THIS HITS 2160 OR 1760 FIRST.
UNLESS THINGS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY, NO UPDATES.
Note
LAST NOTE: It's hard to change the curve for this. It would take 2100 by next Monday to undo the damage.Note
WE MAYBE TAKING A SHORT CUT:
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.