https://www.tradingview.com/x/xKHMFTjw/
💡Message Strategy
In terms of the US dollar index: In the past week, Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and Trump's trillion-dollar "Big Beautiful Bill" have once again set off a wave of selling US dollar assets. The US dollar has fallen to a three-week low, and this week it recorded its largest weekly drop since the announcement of the reciprocal tariff plan in early April, although Bessant downplayed concerns about the recent weakness of the US dollar on Friday. He claimed that this was "largely due to the strengthening of other countries or other currencies, rather than the weakening of the US dollar", that is, Europe's "fiscal expansion" boosted the euro, while the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike supported the yen.
U.S. Treasury bonds: The U.S. Treasury market was volatile, and the cold reception of the 20-year U.S. Treasury auction also reinforced market concerns that investors' demand for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds was weak. Long-term U.S. Treasury bonds led the decline this week, with the 30-year Treasury yield breaking through the 5% mark and the 10-year Treasury yield breaking through 4.6%. Japanese bonds were also cold at auctions before. On Tuesday, Japan's 20-year Treasury bond had the worst auction result since 2012, causing Japan's long-term Treasury yields to soar, triggering concerns about deteriorating global liquidity.
Tariffs: On Friday, after Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the European Union, traders increased their expectations for the European Central Bank to cut interest rates, and now expect three more rate cuts in 2025, as the trade war has clouded the eurozone's economic growth prospects, and the strengthening of the euro and the flow of overseas goods to Europe may cause inflation to fall to the 2% target earlier than expected. However, due to the differences in the short-term and medium- and long-term effects of tariffs, ECB officials and many investment institutions expect the central bank to press the pause button after the 25 basis point rate cut in June to wait for more clarity.
📊Technical aspects
The daily line recorded a negative line, and the gold price closed down again, exacerbating the daily moving average line, which was arranged in a relatively regular upward divergence, maintaining the daily level short-term trend guidance reference, and the daily MACD showed an upward cross-adhesion performance. The hourly level shows that the short-term sharp rise in gold prices once triggered the hourly level RSI overbought performance. The current decline gradually completed the hourly level RSI mean reversion, and gradually formed the hourly level moving average support level retracement trend. The four-hour level moving average line was arranged in a downward divergence, maintaining the four-hour level relatively stable bullish trend guidance reference. In the short term, the gold price once again went short strongly, and the continuous short-term sharp short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term performance continued to intensify the main trend of the short-term performance, and the short-term trading ideas were maintained cautiously during the day.
💰 Strategy Package
Short Position：3350-3360,
💡Message Strategy
In terms of the US dollar index: In the past week, Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and Trump's trillion-dollar "Big Beautiful Bill" have once again set off a wave of selling US dollar assets. The US dollar has fallen to a three-week low, and this week it recorded its largest weekly drop since the announcement of the reciprocal tariff plan in early April, although Bessant downplayed concerns about the recent weakness of the US dollar on Friday. He claimed that this was "largely due to the strengthening of other countries or other currencies, rather than the weakening of the US dollar", that is, Europe's "fiscal expansion" boosted the euro, while the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike supported the yen.
U.S. Treasury bonds: The U.S. Treasury market was volatile, and the cold reception of the 20-year U.S. Treasury auction also reinforced market concerns that investors' demand for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds was weak. Long-term U.S. Treasury bonds led the decline this week, with the 30-year Treasury yield breaking through the 5% mark and the 10-year Treasury yield breaking through 4.6%. Japanese bonds were also cold at auctions before. On Tuesday, Japan's 20-year Treasury bond had the worst auction result since 2012, causing Japan's long-term Treasury yields to soar, triggering concerns about deteriorating global liquidity.
Tariffs: On Friday, after Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the European Union, traders increased their expectations for the European Central Bank to cut interest rates, and now expect three more rate cuts in 2025, as the trade war has clouded the eurozone's economic growth prospects, and the strengthening of the euro and the flow of overseas goods to Europe may cause inflation to fall to the 2% target earlier than expected. However, due to the differences in the short-term and medium- and long-term effects of tariffs, ECB officials and many investment institutions expect the central bank to press the pause button after the 25 basis point rate cut in June to wait for more clarity.
📊Technical aspects
The daily line recorded a negative line, and the gold price closed down again, exacerbating the daily moving average line, which was arranged in a relatively regular upward divergence, maintaining the daily level short-term trend guidance reference, and the daily MACD showed an upward cross-adhesion performance. The hourly level shows that the short-term sharp rise in gold prices once triggered the hourly level RSI overbought performance. The current decline gradually completed the hourly level RSI mean reversion, and gradually formed the hourly level moving average support level retracement trend. The four-hour level moving average line was arranged in a downward divergence, maintaining the four-hour level relatively stable bullish trend guidance reference. In the short term, the gold price once again went short strongly, and the continuous short-term sharp short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term short-term performance continued to intensify the main trend of the short-term performance, and the short-term trading ideas were maintained cautiously during the day.
💰 Strategy Package
Short Position：3350-3360,
Trade closed: target reached
Gold continues to fall
Every opening of a position is a dialogue with probability, and every transaction is the realization of cognition.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Every opening of a position is a dialogue with probability, and every transaction is the realization of cognition.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.