Gold: Medium to Long-Term Outlook
We believe that gold is currently in wave [B] of the fourth wave and may have completed this wave in October 2024 at the level of 2789. Gold finished its third upward wave in 2011 at 1920, after which it declined to 1046 in November 2015, which we interpret as wave [A] of the fourth wave, rather than the complete fourth wave as many analysts worldwide suggest. Our reasoning lies in the internal structure of the subsequent rise from 1046 to 1375, reached in July 2016. This upward structure evident on the chart forms a triple wave, indicating a corrective rather than a five-wave impulse, which suggests that the entire rise from 1046 to 2789 is a corrective wave representing wave [B]. This wave may have ended at its recent high or could still be ongoing. These two scenarios remain valid as long as gold stays above the level of 1810, reached in October 2023. This raises the question: What type of corrective wave is this?
The answer is that this wave is a specific type of fourth-wave pattern known as a (flat), which Ralph Nelson Elliott discussed in his final book "Nature’s Law". He referred to it as an "Elongated Wave C flat" and provided practical examples in his correspondence, known as the "Elliott Wave Letters", which I called it an "Inverted Flat”. Thus, this upward wave [B] may represent an entire Inverted Flat. In this pattern, the initial upward wave (A) ended at 1375, the subsequent downward wave (B) concluded in August 2018 at 1160. and since then, gold may have been forming its final upward wave (C). Within this wave, the first and second sub-waves are completed, and it’s possible that the third of the third wave concluded at the level of 2789 in October 2024—though we consider this scenario less likely.
The most likely scenario is that the Inverted Flat has concluded with an upward move in August 2020 at the level of 2074, labeled as wave (W). This rise was then corrected by wave (X), which ended in September 2022 at 1614. The subsequent rally from that level, which reached 2789 in October, represents wave (Y). This three-part structure—(W) (X) (Y)—may have completed the main wave [B], setting the stage for a potential five-wave decline with a target low around 1675 with possible extension to 1480. if it develops as a Running Flat.
MACD indicator signaling a potential decline, which has reached a high level, with its line now touching the Signal line. The bearish crossover could confirm the downturn.
El-Sayed Owaidy CETA, CFTe
The answer is that this wave is a specific type of fourth-wave pattern known as a (flat), which Ralph Nelson Elliott discussed in his final book "Nature’s Law". He referred to it as an "Elongated Wave C flat" and provided practical examples in his correspondence, known as the "Elliott Wave Letters", which I called it an "Inverted Flat”. Thus, this upward wave [B] may represent an entire Inverted Flat. In this pattern, the initial upward wave (A) ended at 1375, the subsequent downward wave (B) concluded in August 2018 at 1160. and since then, gold may have been forming its final upward wave (C). Within this wave, the first and second sub-waves are completed, and it’s possible that the third of the third wave concluded at the level of 2789 in October 2024—though we consider this scenario less likely.
The most likely scenario is that the Inverted Flat has concluded with an upward move in August 2020 at the level of 2074, labeled as wave (W). This rise was then corrected by wave (X), which ended in September 2022 at 1614. The subsequent rally from that level, which reached 2789 in October, represents wave (Y). This three-part structure—(W) (X) (Y)—may have completed the main wave [B], setting the stage for a potential five-wave decline with a target low around 1675 with possible extension to 1480. if it develops as a Running Flat.
MACD indicator signaling a potential decline, which has reached a high level, with its line now touching the Signal line. The bearish crossover could confirm the downturn.
El-Sayed Owaidy CETA, CFTe
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