$XAUUSD - Gold: Bearish [Intermediate-Term]
A few of my previous charts on gold have been bearish, with initial targets around $1500-1400, which were then revised to suggest possibly as low as $1150. Well, it came close so, from a technical perspective; it did reach the zone I expected for a low, but the wave counts had not been clear enough to support a high degree of confidence.
However, I think the important low has been established. This is evident from that fact that in the move up from the December low to March high Gold has seemingly moved in 5 waves. Subsequent decline, though very strong, does not exhibit impulsive 5-wave–type of decline; rather, more like a retracement. So, this now gives me confidence that the originally anticipated low is in fact likely the major low, and that we are now in a longer-term bullish cycle.
Since the top in March, we've seen sharp sell-off with partial retracement to the upside. What now follows is a possible triangle which, from my previous videos on Bitcoin, is explained to follow only forms in either wave "x", "b", or "4". You can investigate that explanation on YouTube, at:youtube.com/watch?v=Nnpdt2YABY8
In each of these cases, it suggested a continuation pattern; that is, a prior trend leading into a triangle is recurrent. If this plays out then we have the potential for a short trade, or in the intermediate term. However, when dealing with triangles, it is not always very clear exactly where they begin and end.
Should that be the case with this, It could be that we may have another short-term leg up (out of the triangle) before dropping or significantly breaking down from here, which would be ideal for a downside target in the $1200-1220 zone.
Despite the clarity of this trend, if you were to trade this, the risk of getting it wrong is still high. So then, how would one trade this (or any other instruments) safely under these conditions? I suggest by the suitable use of Options.
In a short session, all aspect of Options trading cannot be covered, but do join me as I attempt to demonstrate a few possibilities live, in Google Hangouts link - youtube.com/watch?v=OnVcuQfBUdM
(Copy-editing assistance freely provided by [snowsilence] upon request.)
However, I think the important low has been established. This is evident from that fact that in the move up from the December low to March high Gold has seemingly moved in 5 waves. Subsequent decline, though very strong, does not exhibit impulsive 5-wave–type of decline; rather, more like a retracement. So, this now gives me confidence that the originally anticipated low is in fact likely the major low, and that we are now in a longer-term bullish cycle.
Since the top in March, we've seen sharp sell-off with partial retracement to the upside. What now follows is a possible triangle which, from my previous videos on Bitcoin, is explained to follow only forms in either wave "x", "b", or "4". You can investigate that explanation on YouTube, at:youtube.com/watch?v=Nnpdt2YABY8
In each of these cases, it suggested a continuation pattern; that is, a prior trend leading into a triangle is recurrent. If this plays out then we have the potential for a short trade, or in the intermediate term. However, when dealing with triangles, it is not always very clear exactly where they begin and end.
Should that be the case with this, It could be that we may have another short-term leg up (out of the triangle) before dropping or significantly breaking down from here, which would be ideal for a downside target in the $1200-1220 zone.
Despite the clarity of this trend, if you were to trade this, the risk of getting it wrong is still high. So then, how would one trade this (or any other instruments) safely under these conditions? I suggest by the suitable use of Options.
In a short session, all aspect of Options trading cannot be covered, but do join me as I attempt to demonstrate a few possibilities live, in Google Hangouts link - youtube.com/watch?v=OnVcuQfBUdM
(Copy-editing assistance freely provided by [snowsilence] upon request.)
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