GOLD?! What's going on! A repeat of June 2020?!
Im getting a familiar feeling with Gold at the moment, something similar to how I felt in June 2020 before we had a 23%+ rally in Gold prices. Now, we all know that Gold loves a break and retest of structure to flush out weak hands and keep people guessing. But if we really isolate the price action from March '21 to now we can see some textbook chart patterns being formed. Firstly, An easily identifiable double bottom - followed by a surge in price as expected. We have then continued to create higher highs along the way and rallied almost 15%. As expected, when you see large moves like this it is natural to see corrections and retracements and we've almost had a picture perfect retracement to the Golden Area (61.8 fib retracement). This now brings us to June and for almost the whole month after the -8.69% move, we have been trading sideways and we can see for the month of June that, from a COT perspective large Institutions have been adding long positions. As anticipated on the 2nd of July price broke out of the range and comfortably blew back above $1800.
On the left hand side, we can see June 2020 price action and how textbook the break and retests were (with hindsight of-course). But I am anticipating that we see something very similar... I expect a brief break back below $1800 before Gold catapults again. Fundamentally, we know that there are yet again further Covid-19 concerns. The FED are sticking with their transitory stance and from a COT perspective the big players are buying Gold again. Our favourite indicators are also cut for longs so we have our price alerts set ready for optimal entries and we move on to our other pairs!
If you have any questions please feel free to comment. - Nick
On the left hand side, we can see June 2020 price action and how textbook the break and retests were (with hindsight of-course). But I am anticipating that we see something very similar... I expect a brief break back below $1800 before Gold catapults again. Fundamentally, we know that there are yet again further Covid-19 concerns. The FED are sticking with their transitory stance and from a COT perspective the big players are buying Gold again. Our favourite indicators are also cut for longs so we have our price alerts set ready for optimal entries and we move on to our other pairs!
If you have any questions please feel free to comment. - Nick
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